The Kansas City Chiefs‘ fantasy outlook details their motivation this week, while the Los Angeles Chargers‘ preview takes a further look at RB Austin Ekeler’s disappointing 2023 fantasy football season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Chargers -3
- Total: 36
- Chiefs implied points: 16.5
- Chargers implied points: 19.5
The Chiefs are locked into the third seed in the AFC and have nothing to play for. With that in mind, you’re not playing any of their regulars with any confidence (QB Patrick Mahomes has already been ruled out, with more names likely to be announced sooner than later), be it in a DFS or season-long setting.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes: We live in a world where Mahomes can throw for nearly 4,200 yards and 27 scores — plus run for a career-high 389 yards — in what is being labeled as a very down season.
The receiver situation isn’t going to get worse — because it can’t. With the development of Rashee Rice and the potential for this team to add support this offseason, Mahomes should be labeled as nothing less than a Tier 1 QB in 2024.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco: The angriest runner in the NFL deserves to be considered as a top three-round pick in 2024 with relative ease. He averages 4.7 yards per carry for his career and that’s great, but it’s the spike in passing game usage that has me ready to invest in a significant way.
MORE: 2023 RB Fantasy Football Rankings
In 14 games this season, Pacheco caught over 30 more passes than he saw targets as a rookie in 2022. His style of play opens him up to some durability concerns, but I’m willing to pay up for exposure to this offense, and his development through two seasons has his stock pointing straight up entering the 2024 fantasy season.
Austin Ekeler: This could go either way, but it is worth noting that Ekeler is a UFA after this season. He turns 29 in May, and there are reasonable concerns when it comes to Father Time.
The one-time fantasy god has finished outside of the top-20 producers at the position in three straight games and outside of the top 30 in five of his past seven.
Week 7 meeting: RB38, but he was the only RB with more than two rushing yards last week as he continues to be featured.
My optimism in ranking him as a low-end RB2 is more a bet on his volume than it is anything we’ve seen on the field. With the lead role against a defense that is likely to rest their regulars, Ekeler should fall his way into a satisfactory finish to conclude 2023.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice: And you thought I was optimistic in my write-up for Pacheco? It’s possible that overpaying for Rice in 2024 is simply impossible.
Rice as a rookie: 79 catches for 938 yards and seven TDs
Keenan Allen as a rookie: 71 catches for 1,046 yards and eight TDs
Both of these players were born in late April and have six-letter first names. Both were drafted into the NFL outside of the top 50 overall picks despite having a 90+ catch, 1,300+ yard season on their college résumé.
Allen has had strong play under center over the past two seasons, and he has averaged 7.1 catches per game while scoring 11 times in those 23 games. Prorate those numbers for a 17-game regular season, and we’re looking at 121 catches and eight touchdowns.
Why can’t Rice do something like that in 2024?
Alex Erickson: The 31-year-old doubled his season catch total last week in Denver and was the only Chargers target to clear 31 receiving yards (98 yards). Easton Stick completed 87.5% of his Erickson targets and 56.7% for all other players.
Los Angeles receivers have spent more time in the injury tent than on the field this season, paving the way for Erickson to see significant looks in the season finale.
The projectable volume puts him on the fringe of the Flex conversation in deeper PPR formats. A high opportunity count is nice, but those looks are only so valuable in this offense. At the very least, he’s worth a roster spot for teams trying to patch together a viable roster to round out the regular season.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: I understand that his less-than-exciting end to the fantasy season has been a pain, but I still have him atop my 2024 TE rankings due to his consistency. We have a glorious crop of young tight ends that will be chomping at the bit for the label of “fantasy’s best” at the position, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Kelce’s fantasy production has limped to the finish line in three straight seasons — be aware of that. Understanding that, if you want to build your roster around Kelce in the third round, I have zero issues. Per the Week 18 Cheat Sheet:
- 2021: Under 35 yards in four of five games to close the regular season
- 2022: Six straight without a score to close the regular season
- 2023: Six straight without a score, under 50 yards in three straight
Gerald Everett: The process was right for those of us who played Everett in DFS, I stand by that. We got a 24.3% target share for a low aDOT player on a team that was trailing for 90.5% of their offensive snaps.
Week 7 meeting: TE9
I’d bet on that profile every single week. His 5.7 fantasy points, however, didn’t get it done. The Chargers don’t have much to play for, but they didn’t last week either, and Everett was used as normal. I’m trusting the process and penciling in Everett in season-long leagues while considering him a strong DFS play at his price point.
I’ll say he finishes better than the TE9 rank he produced in the first meeting (one that saw Josh Palmer and Keenan Allen account for 53.3% of Charger targets).
Trending Start/Sit Searches
Did you know that we have a Start/Sit Optimizer here at Pro Football Network? It’s completely free to use, and it allows you to enter up to six players to find the best option to plug into your starting lineup.
It also allows us to see the most popular trending searches. We’ve jotted some of them down here to help provide some clarity.
Should You Start Zamir White or Austin Ekeler?
I prefer Las Vegas Raiders RB Zamir White in this spot. He gets the perfect matchup and has been filling in nicely in Josh Jacobs’ vacated bell-cow role.
Recent form certainly sides with White, but this play is more about the future than the past. The Las Vegas Raiders are highly motivated to get a good look at White. He might be their RB of the future, with Jacobs on a one-year deal. The Chargers know what they have in Ekeler and aren’t motivated to use him in a significant way in this meaningless game.
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