Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Josh Palmer was a useful fantasy asset for several weeks last season. With the Chargers adding first-rounder Quentin Johnston to the roster, is there a path for Palmer to be productive once again? What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Josh Palmer’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Last season, Palmer opened the year as the Chargers’ WR3. He was a popular late-round dart throw since Justin Herbert is more than capable of supporting three fantasy-relevant wide receivers. Then, with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams battling injuries throughout the year, Palmer had multiple weeks operating as the team’s WR2 and even some games as LA’s WR1.
Overall, Palmer averaged 10.6 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as a WR4. That type of productivity is enough to warrant a spot on fantasy rosters, and the reality was even better than that.
Most of Palmer’s down weeks came with Allen and Williams healthy. In two games without either of them on the field, he averaged 13.0 ppg. When Williams was out (four games), Palmer averaged 12.4 ppg, and when Allen was out (seven games), Palmer averaged 11.2 points on average.
The real measure of Palmer’s performance, though, was his snap share. The injuries to Allen and Williams dictated how often he saw the field. Palmer played eight games where he saw at least around a 90% snap share. In those games, he averaged an impressive 15.4 ppg and did so despite scoring just three touchdowns. While that paints a very optimistic picture on Palmer, there are some concerns before we even get to opportunity.
Palmer was very inefficient. His 18.4% targets per route run rate was 67th in the league. He averaged just 1.32 yards per route run and 7.2 yards per target, both outside the top 70. Essentially, his value was derived from him being the last man standing among the Chargers’ wide receivers.
Should You Draft Josh Palmer This Year?
Last season, Palmer was intriguing because, as was ultimately proven, he was one injury away from being an every-week fantasy starter. This season, in addition to Allen and Williams being back in their usual roles, the Chargers used a first-round pick on a rookie WR.
It’s very difficult to imagine Johnston playing behind the 2021 third-rounder. Furthermore, if Allen or Williams misses time, Johnston would likely be the primary beneficiary. Palmer would still benefit, but not as much as last season.
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It’s also unlikely the Chargers suffer injuries to their wide receivers to the extent they did last season. It would take three of them for Palmer to ever operate as the WR1.
Los Angeles has one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore orchestrated the highest-scoring offense in 2019 and 2021 while in Dallas. And it’s not as if he’s getting a downgrade in weapons going from the Cowboys to the Chargers.
There’s a path for Palmer to matter in fantasy this season, but it involves injuries. Even an explosive pass-first offense like the Chargers cannot support four fantasy-relevant receivers at the same time.
Palmer’s ADP sits at WR97, No. 268 overall. He’s nowhere near being drafted in standard-sized 12-team leagues. I have Palmer at the very tail end of my rankings, just barely inside the top 100. He could pop up as a waiver wire add at some point during the season, but there’s no reason to be selecting him in fantasy drafts.
