Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is looking to build off of his career year in 2022. But between the Raiders’ offensive changes and Jacobs’ contract dispute, he’s become a highly questionable player heading into 2023 fantasy drafts. Should fantasy football managers draft Jacobs at his ADP this season?
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Josh Jacobs’ Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
For the first three years of his career, Jacobs was good, not great. His weekly performances were a bit volatile, but at the end of the year, you could bank on a low-RB1/high-RB2 finish. Jacobs averaged between 14.7 and 15.4 PPR fantasy points per game in each of his first three seasons.
Last year, Jacobs finally exploded. His rushing opportunity share spiked to 83.7% (first in the league). He maintained a respectable 11.8% target share. With the volume both on the ground and through the air, Jacobs smashed.
Despite all the volume, he was pretty efficient. He had a 31.3% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, ranking 11th in the league. And his 3.14 yards created per touch was 13th. Jacobs averaged 19.3 ppg, finishing as the RB3.
This year, Jacobs comes with some new concerns. We have four years of data on him. In three of them, he was on the RB1/2 border. In one, he was an elite RB1. But that one was the most recent. What do we believe?
Then, we have the offensive changes. Derek Carr is out. Jimmy Garoppolo is in. Darren Waller is out. Jakobi Meyers is in. This offense is certainly worse, but it might not be by any meaningful amount.
The good news is, at least the contract situation is no longer on that list.
Is Jacobs a Good Fantasy Pick?
All of the above concerns have contributed to Jacobs’ tumbling ADP. He’s still going as the RB9, No. 22 overall, on average, but I’ve seen him fall into the third round in plenty of mocks.
Now that Jacobs has worked out a deal with the Raiders and reported to camp, I expect that to rise.
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I have Jacobs ranked at RB8. I am confident that the volume will be there. At worst, he should give us what he’s given us over the first three years of his career. If you draft the RB12 at RB8, I promise that won’t be the reason your team loses. We have Jacobs at RB7 in our PFN consensus rankings.
Fantasy managers may need to hold their noses when doing it, but Jacobs is probably a good value in the late second round.
