One of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and fantasy football, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen projects to be an early pick once again, as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Allen’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Josh Allen’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Bills Mafia, I love you. When I think of places I want to go to see a game, it is usually because of a stadium’s history. For the Bills, it’s Bills Mafia. Not only are they a group of people who love to have a good time, but their team has one of the best rosters in the NFL. There is a reason the Bills are the Super Bowl favorites for 2022. Sitting at the center of it all is Allen, the perfect representation of who you want to lead your team and represent your fanbase.
Over his first two NFL seasons, Allen completed 56.3% of his passes and threw for 5,163 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. The only thing which helped him was his rushing ability, a critical aspect of a quarterback’s upside in fantasy. Allen posted 1,141 yards with 17 TDs on the ground during those seasons.
He was still developing. Buffalo’s brass knew this and exercised patience with him, which is rare to see anymore with young quarterbacks. Then, Allen and his game went to the stratosphere — as did his fantasy upside.
In 2020, Allen finished as the QB1 in fantasy and became just the third QB since 2014 to cross the 400-point threshold (405.2). He generated 4,544 passing yards, 421 rushing yards, and 45 touchdowns on his way to a second-place finish in MVP voting.
Allen’s historic run continued last year
2021 showed Allen was no fluke. He was once again the QB1 and became the first player in fantasy history with multiple 400-point seasons. Throwing for 4,407 yards with 36 passing TDs and 6 rushing TDs, Allen was a top-12 QB 11 times, with seven games inside the top three. Allen was the most consistent QB in fantasy while offering a substantial weekly upside.
I don’t see that changing in 2022, as he comes as the No. 1 ranked fantasy QB on my board. He is everything you want in a modern QB. Allen is unafraid to take risks, has an arm that can target any receiver at any depth, and carries a substantial rushing upside both between the 20s and inside the red zone due to his size, which matches some linebackers.
How the Bills’ depth chart impacts Allen’s fantasy projection for the season
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a more well-constructed lineup from top to bottom than the Bills’. Buffalo, which already had the best defense in the league according to most advanced stats, added first-round CB Kaiir Elam to pair with Tre’Davious White and signed some guy named Von Miller. I think I heard he is pretty good at football.
They weren’t done there either. Buffalo added playmaker and pass-catching savant RB James Cook out of Georgia to pair with Devin Singletary as their third-down back in Round 2. In the fifth round, the Bills snagged Boise State slot specialist Khalil Shakir.
In free agency, Cole Beasley was replaced by Jamison Crowder, or so we thought. Despite having the edge initially, it appears Isaiah McKenzie has won the job based on reports from camp but also in snap and personnel groupings during the preseason. Why is this important? Well, Beasly saw over 100 targets in the last three years in this exact same role. Although Crowder and McKenzie could lower each other’s ceilings, McKenzie has passed him in my rankings and is a very intriguing late-round pick.
Further adding to their depth, the Bills signed O.J. Howard to join Dawson Knox in the TE room and add more athleticism to the position.
Crowder, Cook, and Howard join an already loaded offense led by one of the best receivers in the league, Stefon Diggs, and seemingly everyone’s favorite fantasy breakout WR, Gabriel Davis. Opposing defenses are free to pick their poison, but the Bills have not one but multiple counters. They can deploy essentially every positional group, and they can create new wrinkles by running 12 personnel (two TEs) or going empty and sliding Cook out.
The Bills have a counter for every move a defense can throw at them
How do you defend this? You can’t bring enough pressure outside the front four due to needing to play nickel/dime as a base, which takes exotic blitzes out of the equation. To make matters worse, Allen is so good on the ground that he needs a dedicated spy, which also takes someone out of coverage. Even then, he can outrun the majority of linebackers.
Barring injuries or a catastrophic collapse that I do not see coming, Allen and the Bills will be a fantasy goldmine in 2022. As someone who typically waits to select a quarterback in 1QB leagues at the right ADP, I can absolutely make a case for Allen early in a draft due to all the ways the Bills can beat opposing defenses.
Allen’s ADP for 2022
If any quarterback deserves the QB1 spot in drafts, it’s Allen, and that’s precisely where we find him. With fantasy football draft season officially upon us, Allen currently has an ADP of 24 in 1QB leagues, placing him as the QB1 at the end of the second round.
While I am personally not a “QB early” drafter myself, I might be able to talk myself into him if he slides a bit in drafts. Ideally, if I was on the Round 3/4 turn, for example, I’d highly consider Allen to go with an RB/RB/WR or RB/WR/WR roster build for the upside.
I think Allen blows the league out of the water in 2022, and knowing he won’t make it back around makes that risk worth taking. What I will say is if I were to do this or anytime I go QB early, I wait on tight end as it’s hard to go early on both without sacrificing depth/upside at RB or WR.
As for Superflex drafts, Allen is the 1.01. He is the first pick of the draft. And for as sensational as Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson are, Allen is just in a different stratosphere as far as fantasy is concerned. Also, it’s just fun to be a part of Bills Mafia. I’m an easy person to please.