Despite tearing his ACL last November, Carolina Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks was the 46th overall pick this past April, draft capital that suggests the team is very high on the Texas product’s potential.
It’s easy to like Brooks in dynasty formats, but when it comes to redraft, how confident should fantasy football managers be in him?
Update: Brooks will start the season on the Non-Football Injury list and will not be able to play until at least Week 5.
Jonathon Brooks’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 192 (158 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 918
- Rushing TDs: 6
- Receptions: 34
- Receiving Yards: 264
- Receiving TDs: 1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Brooks This Year?
Don’t forget that fantasy is as much a marathon as it is a sprint. A fast start is fun and keeps you engaged, but no fantasy league I’ve ever played in rewards you for having the best record through October. This game we play weighs the later weeks heavier than the earlier ones, with simply qualifying for your playoffs being the name of the game.
In that vein, what do you expect Brooks’ role to look like at full strength?
For reference, Chuba Hubbard averaged 16.3 touches per game in Carolina’s offense a season ago. He remains on the roster, but offensive guru Dave Canales was brought in to develop this offense. One of his first moves was to spend up on Brooks, making me confident that the rookie (when deemed healthy) should project as Carolina’s bell cow.
Took me a sec to get to the backs—Jonathan Brooks is my RB1. Best zone back in the class. Vision, balance, long speed, power, hands…just a very complete player. Injury timeline the biggest ding. pic.twitter.com/0rkfkphLBl
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) April 9, 2024
Over the past five seasons, rookie running backs with at least 14.5+ touches per game and second-round (or better) draft capital finished their first season averaging 15.4 PPR fantasy points per game.
Say what you will about paying up for the position in the NFL Draft, but when a team does it, that player, when featured, can be a fantasy asset.
That points-per-game average would have ranked as RB14 last season. If you think that’s a rich expectation as I do, the worst of those measured running backs (Clyde Edwards-Helaire) gave us 13.5 fantasy ppg. That’s still plenty to turn a profit — 13.5 would have finished as the RB20 last season. Brooks’ ADP currently has him as the RB28.
I trust Pro Football Network Draft Analyst Ian Cummings with my college evaluations. He had this to say about Brooks in the pre-draft process:
- Smooth long-strider who can accelerate up seams and utilize second-level creases.
- Certified slasher with the flexibility to manipulate tracking angles while staying vertical.
- Can use subtle tempo modulations and bouts of acceleration to warp tackling angles.
- Flashes impressive short-area twitch, foot speed, and agility when creating space.
- Has the stride freedom to suddenly retract and work DBs off-balance in the open field.
- Has the vision to survey and quickly diagnose optimal secondary lanes on zone runs.
From a numbers/usage standpoint, Brooks’ college résumé checks all of the boxes. His 1,139 rushing yards and 10 scores for Texas last season were impressive. His versatility (one catch for every 7.5 carries) is a fantasy blessing in an offense looking for playmakers.
This pick requires patience. If you’re the type of manager who needs immediate returns, I’d advise you to look elsewhere. Brooks is positioned to miss most of September and could take some time to warm up to the professional game following his NFL debut.
Zack Moss, Raheem Mostert, and Tony Pollard are all being drafted in the same range. I don’t doubt that they all put up bigger numbers than Brooks through September. That said, if you’re an active manager who wants to play the long game, the Panthers’ rookie should very much have your attention in the eighth round.
After all, Carolina’s offense can’t do anything but improve from 2023, and Canales is no stranger to reclamation projects.