Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor was nothing short of fantasy football royalty in each of his first two seasons, but as the popular top overall pick in drafts last August, he disappointed in a big way. Not only was the per-game production down, he missed six games after sitting out just once in his career prior.
As if a down season wasn’t enough for fantasy managers to consider, Taylor’s situation has the moving piece of committing to a rookie quarterback for the entire year and a messy situation with the franchise as a whole. Should fantasy managers be comfortable spending their first pick on Taylor, or is the risk too great to buy back in?
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Jonathan Taylor’s Fantasy Outlook
Taylor walked into the league and took the fantasy community by storm with a stellar rookie season (RB8, 16.3 ppg) and followed it up with a 2021 season that saw him lead the position by 36.8 points (2,171 yards and 20 touchdowns).
He was the popular 1.01 this time last year, and … well, there’s a reason he is featured in our bounce-back candidates article. After a huge Week 1 in Houston, Taylor reached 20 fantasy points in just one of his other nine games. He sat for six contests after missing just a single game over his first two seasons.
All reports suggest that Taylor is “healed up” and ready for a season that is going to feature a very different-looking offense. How different? Matt Ryan led this unit in 2022 and has zero seasons on his résumé with 150 rushing yards. For 2023, the Colts will hand the keys over to the fourth overall pick in Anthony Richardson, an athletic marvel who had 160 rushing yards … in the 2021 season opener.
Spin that how you’d like — either Richardson is a threat to Taylor’s rushing stats, or his mobility will open up lanes that otherwise were nothing more than a dream — but calling this offense “different” is safe.
As for the backfield, Taylor remains a clear-cut workhorse. Even with a down 2022, he’s averaged 5.1 yards per carry for his career and has scored 36 times in 43 career games, a résumé that demands as much work as he can handle ahead of underwhelming secondary options Zack Moss and Deon Jackson.
JT handled at least 20 carries in seven of his 10 healthy games a season ago and averaged 19.5 during a fully healthy 2021 — he is a true threat to lead the league in carries in 2023.
Can Taylor Rebound From a Disappointing 2022?
Of course he can! We are talking about a 24-year-old back who has sustained greatness for extended periods of time and simply had a tough 2022. It happens.
Taylor in Years 1-2 vs. Year 3:
- Half-PPR ppg — 19.0 / 12.7
- Fantasy points/touch — 0.93 / 0.63
- Yards/touch — 5.69 / 4.56
Marshall Faulk in Years 1-2 vs. Year 3 (also with the Colts):
- Half-PPR ppg — 16.6 / 12.9
- Fantasy points/touch — 0.75 / 0.66
- Yards/touch — 4.72 / 4.00
So maybe we just avoid Colts running backs in Year 3 from now on? The point is that an early career down season isn’t the end of the world. Faulk’s efficiency numbers bounced back in Year 4, and the rest is history (thre-time Offensive Player of the Year, the 2000 MVP, and a member of the 2011 Hall Of Fame class).
As for the addition of a running quarterback, I believe it only increases Taylor’s odds for an efficient season. Think about it. None of the following examples had a running back near the talent of Taylor, and yet, they were all efficient offenses:
- Jalen Hurts: second in QB rush yards per game
- Philadelphia Eagles: seventh in RB yards/carry
- Josh Allen: third in QB rush yards per game
- Buffalo Bills: second in RB yards/carry
- Marcus Mariota: fifth in QB rush yards per game
- Atlanta Falcons: third in RB yards/carry
- Geno Smith: sixth in QB rush yards per game
- Seattle Seahawks: sixth in RB yards/carry
In Year 1, Richardson isn’t going to be the quarterback that Hurts, Allen, or even Smith were last year, but he is that level of athlete, and defenses will be forced to account for that in a major way.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Taylor at His ADP?
I have Taylor as my RB6, and that is right where his positional ADP sits, but I am a little more bullish on grabbing a Tier 1 running back and therefore have him as a nice buy early in Round 2. Targeting of Taylor is more of a draft philosophy decision.
When picking toward the end of the first round in 12-team leagues, I find myself almost always going RB-WR or WR-RB. Double-tapping the receiver position is tempting, but I’m generally out on the Kenneth Walkers and Aaron Joneses of the world, and those are the options that are often available when you’re picking in the late third/early fourth round.
Taylor’s receiving upside isn’t on par with the four running backs ahead of him (Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, and Saquon Barkley), but the safety that comes with his featured role in an offense that is going to want to milk the clock makes him as good a pick as any after that.
