Miami Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson Jr. worked his way into a timeshare with Raheem Mostert last season, giving both viable fantasy value. With rookie Devon Achane now in the mix, can Wilson maintain enough work to be worth rostering in fantasy? What is his fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Jeff Wilson Jr.’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Wilson truly is the quintessential replacement-level running back. He has good size at 6’0″, 210 pounds, but is not fast and has below-average athleticism. Wilson will go out there and get what’s blocked. He’s fine in a pinch and in a committee but has never been able to hold up over an extended period of time.
Despite his poor athleticism, Wilson averaged 5.3 yards per touch (14th in the league), and was able to take 7.4% of his carries for at least 15 yards, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. For a slow guy, e was pretty explosive.
Last season, Wilson averaged 9.9 PPR fantasy points per game. But it’s important to break his season down to understand how he got there.
Wilson spent the first seven weeks as the San Francisco 49ers’ primary back, with Elijah Mitchell going down early in Week 1. From Weeks 2-5, Wilson scored at least 11.6 fantasy points in every game, including a 20.2 effort in Week 5. Weeks 1, 6, 7, and 8, on the other hand, were mega duds, with Wilson totaling 16.4 fantasy points in all four combined.
Ahead of Week 9, Wilson was traded to Miami. I expected him to be Mostert’s backup, but he quickly became the lead back, out-snapping Mostert in Weeks 10 and 12. In his first three games with the Dolphins, Wilson averaged 16.9 ppg.
Week 13 was a dud, and then Wilson got hurt in Week 14. After returning in Week 16, he went right back to lead-back duties, averaging a 63% snap share over his final three games.
It was clear from the Dolphins’ usage of their running backs that they preferred Wilson to Mostert, but both played meaningful snaps in tandem.
Should You Draft Jeff Wilson Jr. This Year?
Heading into the 2023 season, the Dolphins retained both Wilson and Mostert. Additionally, they spent a Day 2 pick on Achane in the 2023 NFL Draft.
While not exactly a great receiver, Wilson did see a respectable 7.9% target share last season. That is likely to plummet as part of a potential three-man committee with Achane operating as the satellite back.
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There’s simply not enough ball to go around in this offense for all three of these running backs to succeed. Add in the fact that this is a pass-first offense with two elite wide receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle that command volume, and Wilson’s role may be relegated to around a 30% snap share.
This backfield is shaping up to be a nightmare for fantasy. Achane likely has the most defined role as the receiving back, but he’s going to see some carries as well. We very well may see a 40-30-30 split, with the most productive back on any given week the one that finds the end zone.
Wilson’s RB51 ADP, No. 166 overall is behind both Achane (RB43) and Mostert (RB47). However, the difference between Wilson and Mostert is best described as negligible. Essentially, fantasy managers are confident in Achane as the most valuable member of Miami’s backfield and not much else.
Wilson likely needs an injury to one of Mostert or Achane to be worthy of being on a fantasy roster. Given the uncertainty surrounding how this backfield will shake out, all three will be drafted in most fantasy leagues, with one of Mostert or Wilson jettisoned to the waiver wire early in the season when it’s clear his role just isn’t there.
I have Wilson ranked as my RB51, one spot behind Mostert. Basically, I have no idea which one of them will be the guy. The reality is, it will likely vary from week to week, depending on who gets goal-line work.
Fantasy managers who don’t want the headache can just avoid this backfield and take shots on other guys with clearer paths to fantasy value. But if you want to take a shot at one of these guys, it’s a true toss-up. Throw a dart at Wilson (or Mostert), and if the other gets hurt, you’ll have a running back that should at least be a fantasy RB3.
