The Washington Commanders completely wiped the slate clean this offseason by hiring a new general manager, head coach, and offensive coordinator. Their first move was to make Jayden Daniels the team’s next franchise quarterback to orchestrate Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive scheme filled with Air Raid and RPO concepts.
What can fantasy managers expect from an exceptional dual-threat QB prospect like Daniels in his rookie year?
Jayden Daniels 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 321.7
- Passing Yards: 4,081.9
- Passing TDs: 18.3
- Interceptions: 11.3
- Rushing Yards: 675.6
- Rushing TDs: 4.8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Daniels This Year?
Rookie quarterbacks who possess elite statistical rushing upside have had more fantasy success early in their NFL careers than you probably realize.
Players like Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III finished their first year in the NFL as top-five fantasy options at the position, with QB3 and QB5 overall finishes, respectively.
If you expand that sample size out to year two in the NFL, then Lamar Jackson finished as the QB1 overall in 2019, Josh Allen finished as the QB8 in 2019, and Justin Fields finished as the QB7 in 2022.
Why is this relevant? Well, Daniels has the type of dynamic playmaking ability with his legs that rivals some of the elite dual-threat quarterbacks mentioned above. However, he has more college starting experience at the Division-I level than Newton and Jackson combined.
Daniels is a bit more polished as a passing prospect entering the league, which should help him distribute the ball to competent playmakers like Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Austin Ekeler. He also possesses the explosive short-area burst, dynamic long speed, and contact balance to absolutely torture defenses that are ill-equipped to handle his dual-threat ability.
For some more context about this Washington offense that Daniels is stepping into this year, Kingsbury once helped another dual-threat quarterback in Kyler Murray finish as the QB6 in his rookie year. That season, Murray totaled 3,722 passing yards — while throwing to a 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald as his WR1 — and produced just 544 rushing yards. Personally, I see Daniels topping Murray’s rookie rushing production in 2024.
Additionally, the last full season we got with Kingsbury and Murray was back in 2021, when the Arizona Cardinals threw a total of 110 passing attempts on RPO concepts, which ranked second in the league.
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Assuming some of this offensive infrastructure translates to 2024, then Daniels will be given some easy one-read completions to help simplify and inflate his passing numbers. Yet, Daniels proved he is fully capable of executing more complex full-read, pro-style passing concepts during his days at LSU, which gives him an exciting fantasy ceiling in this offense.
Daniels is projected for 3,855 passing yards and 638 rushing yards. Personally, I think the passing yards should be lowered and the rushing yards should be raised. The bottom line is that if Daniels comes in anywhere around 3,500 yards as a passer this year — which is just 205.8 passing yards per game — there is a path to Daniels being a low-end QB1 in fantasy football in 2024.
Daniels’ current ADP at No. 108 overall in the ninth round as the QB13 off the board makes him a very interesting draft-day investment given his rushing upside.
There is no case to be made about Daniels’ fantasy floor because he is a rookie who we haven’t seen operate an NFL offense, which can make it difficult to select him over players like Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, or Jared Goff who have a lengthy track record of passing production in the league. That said, we have seen the fantasy floor from dynamic dual-threat weapons under center, and that floor tends to propel mediocre passers into elite fantasy options.
Personally, if I select Daniels in the ninth round, I have no issues pairing him with Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford to have the elite upside of a dual-threat talent like Daniels combined with the security and high fantasy floor of a proven veteran signal-caller to mitigate Daniels’ wide range of outcomes as he enters the league in 2024.
