Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was the best quarterback in fantasy last season. Playing on arguably the best offense in the NFC, can he repeat as the overall QB1? What is Hurts’ 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Jalen Hurts’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
With 25.6 fantasy points per game last season, no quarterback was better in fantasy than Hurts. However, fantasy managers likely have a sore taste in their mouths from Hurts’ fantasy playoffs disappearing act. Even so, the fact that he missed the final two weeks of the fantasy season should not detract from the elite force he was the entire season.
Lamar Jackson may be the best rushing quarterback in the league, but Hurts is not too far behind. Over the past two seasons, Hurts has averaged 51.5 rushing yards per game and has 23 rushing touchdowns in 30 games.
What really led to Hurts’ ascent in 2022 was his progression as a passer. His completion percentage shot up from 61.3% to 66.5%, he averaged 246.7 passing yards per game (an increase of 37.1), and threw six more touchdowns in the same number of games.
Hurts’ efficiency just keeps improving. His yards per attempt have gone up every season of his career. He remains incredibly accurate on deep balls and has two fantastic receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith capable of corraling those downfield passes.
It’s been a combination of Hurts’ progression and his elite supporting cast that’s turned him into one of the best quarterbacks in football, both real life and fantasy.
Last season, Hurts didn’t just post a very high ppg; he was winning fantasy managers’ matchups. Excluding Week 18 — which doesn’t count for fantasy anyway — Hurts never scored below 16.9 fantasy points. That means even on his down weeks, he was never losing fantasy managers’ matchups and was instead winning plenty of them.
Hurts posted 30 fantasy points a whopping four times last season (five if we round 29.8 up). He finished inside the top six quarterbacks in 12 of his 14 starts (again, excluding Week 18).
This season, Hurts will enjoy a ton of continuity in his offense. His corps of pass catchers are all returning — Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert. The team also traded for an excellent pass-catching running back in D’Andre Swift. It’s truly an embarrassment of riches for a quarterback who really doesn’t even need them to excel in fantasy.
Should You Draft Jalen Hurts This Year?
We are going to see a shift in fantasy football draft strategy this season, the likes of which we haven’t really seen since 2012. Elite quarterbacks are going to go, on average, earlier than they have at any point in the past decade.
In most leagues, you won’t see Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Hurts make it out of the third round. In some, they may start to go in the second.
Having an elite QB is more important now than it has been in a long time, possibly ever. The year-to-year consistency of the top guys staying at the top, combined with their weekly upside, makes them worth the early picks.
For the past two years, it’s been Mahomes or Allen as the presumptive QB1. That’s no different this year … for most people.
Not for me. I’ve got Hurts as my top-ranked quarterback this season. Based on consensus rankings and ADP, Hurts will be the QB3. I would prefer not to take him ahead of Mahomes and Allen, but I have no problem doing it if the situation calls for it.
The value and consistency of the elite quarterbacks makes them more worthy of early-round picks than they have been in a long time, possibly ever.
Fantasy managers should have exactly zero concerns about Hurts being able to post a similar season to the one he had last year. With an ADP of around 24th overall, the opportunity cost remains high. But the elite QBs have proven to be worth it.
Depending on the wide receivers and running backs available, I might very well push the button on Hurts at the end of the second round. If he’s there in the third, don’t pass him up.