The NFL always has something going on. Even after the season is over, fantasy football values move and shift. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts regressed a bit last year but still remains an elite fantasy force. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Jalen Hurts’ Dynasty Outlook
Following Hurts’ 2021 season, I completely bought into him as both an elite fantasy quarterback and an excellent real-life quarterback. He rewarded fantasy managers in 2022 with 25.6 fantasy points per game and an overall QB1 finish.
With this touchdown, #Eagles QB Jalen Hurts now holds the single-season rushing touchdown record for a quarterback 💥pic.twitter.com/3kuntCiuWZ
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
Heading into 2023, Hurts was my No. 1 ranked QB in redraft. If given the opportunity, I was going to draft him ahead of Josh Allen and quite easily ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Hurts was still great last season, but he definitely took a step backward, both in fantasy and reality.
Hurts averaged 21.9 fantasy points per game. While this was good for an overall QB2 finish, a similar points-per-game average made him the QB6 in 2021. Relative to his peers, Hurts was still great. But fantasy managers certainly expected more. I know I did.
The biggest difference between 2022 and 2023 was Hurts’ efficiency. His yards per attempt dropped from 8.0 to 7.2. Despite attempting 78 more passes in two more games, Hurts only threw for 157 more yards and one more touchdown.
He was also less effective as a runner, rushing for 605 yards compared to 760 the year before. If not for 15 rushing touchdowns, most via the Brotherly Shove, Hurts’ fantasy season would have been a colossal disappointment.
MORE: 2024 Dynasty Mock Draft
The good news is I have a hard time seeing Hurts ever playing worse than he did last year. If this is his floor, I think fantasy managers can live with that.
Given how the Eagles’ season collapsed over the second half, there will be significant changes next year. Those changes should benefit Hurts. Allen may be the clear QB1 right now, but Hurts is not at risk of falling out of the top three anytime soon.
Jason Katz’s Top 25 QB Rankings
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI
4) Lamar Jackson | BAL
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) C.J. Stroud | HOU
7) Justin Herbert | LAC
8) Dak Prescott | DAL
9) Anthony Richardson | IND
10) Kyler Murray | ARI
11) Brock Purdy | SF
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
14) Justin Fields | CHI
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Jared Goff | DET
17) Bryce Young | CAR
18) Kirk Cousins | MIN
19) Matthew Stafford | LAR
20) Deshaun Watson | CLE
21) Will Levis | TEN
22) Geno Smith | SEA
23) Baker Mayfield | TB
24) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
25) Derek Carr | NO
Should You Trade Hurts in Dynasty?
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If you read my dynasty outlook on Josh Allen already, this next part will be a bit redundant. We’ve never seen a former mobile quarterback play at a high level beyond the age of 33. Russell Wilson is the best one, and I would hardly classify his play over the past three seasons as quality.
That will obviously be a concern for Hurts when the time comes, but that time is so far in the future that there’s just no reason to care. Hurts will be 26 years old this season. Even if he’s done at 33, that’s at least seven more years of elite QB1 production. Not a single dynasty manager would complain about that.
If you have Hurts, there’s definitely a reason not to feel great about what you saw in 2023. However, Hurts was also dealing with a knee injury for much of the season that clearly impacted his ability to run.
He should be fully healthy in 2024, and a return to what we saw in 2022 is not out of the question. Unless you’re getting back Allen or Mahomes, I would hang onto Hurts until he’s not good anymore.
