As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy football values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Jahmyr Gibbs.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ Dynasty Outlook and Value
The path to the Detroit Lions‘ backfield settling in has been windy. Ultimately, they got what they wanted — the same type of backfield as they’ve had the past two years, but with younger players.
What was an even split between Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift will not likely be an even split between David Montgomery and Gibbs. But let’s focus on Gibbs.
Draft capital matters. Not only did Gibbs go in Round, but he went in the top half of the first round — much higher than anyone expected. That doesn’t supersede the concerns about his size, but it does help assuage them.
First-round running backs have a very good track record of not only success but immediate success. Not counting guys who had their careers derailed due to injuries, you have to go all the way back to Donald Brown in 2009 to find a first-round RB that wound up being completely useless in fantasy. An argument could be made against Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny in 2018, as well.
The point is first-round running backs almost always hit, at least to some degree. That gives Gibbs a high floor even before we get to an assessment of his ability.
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Gibbs is definitely a size outlier that we’re betting on. Running backs that are sub-201 pounds very seldom go on to become more than committee members. And given the construction of the Lions’ backfield, Gibbs shouldn’t be projected to break that mold. But he doesn’t have to.
Gibbs can reach his fantasy RB1 upside as part of a timeshare. Modern NFL backfields almost exclusively use multiple backs. For the past three years, we saw Swift post high-RB2/low-RB1 numbers on roughly 50% of the snaps. Gibbs is like a younger, possibly better version of Swift.
In college, Gibbs posted a season-best target share of 13.8%. His season-worst target share came as a freshman — a still impressive 11%. In total, he caught 103 passes during his three years at college.
The receiving gives Gibbs a high floor and puts him in a position to really not be able to fail unless he just turns out to be a total bust of a player (highly unlikely).
Gibbs can run the ball, too. While he’s never going to be the guy to tote the rock 15+ times a game, we don’t want him to. Eight to 10 carries and 4-5 receptions is just fine.
Gibbs ran a 4.36 40-time. That puts his speed score in the 91st percentile. He’s a big play waiting to happen.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ Fantasy Ranking
Jones is immediately a dynasty RB2. The Lions’ trading away Swift less than 48 hours after drafting Gibbs tells us all we need to know about their confidence in him.
With that said, Gibbs will always be part of a committee and won’t see much goal-line work. He’ll have to make due on his receiving work and splash plays. That limits his ceiling, but it’s not enough to fade him.
At 21 years old, Gibbs should be able to provide fantasy managers enough to be the cornerstone of a backfield. Currently the 1.04 in our latest dynasty rookie rankings, he’s definitely someone I’m interested in targeting in dynasty startup drafts.