As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of RB D’Andre Swift.
D’Andre Swift’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
Is there a more polarizing running back entering the 2023 offseason than Swift? Unanimously a top-five RB entering a year ago, Swift’s stock took a noticeable hit in 2022.
Appearing in 14 games, Swift saw career-low usage. After rushing 151 times last season, he carried the ball only 99 times, albeit for an efficient 542 yards with five touchdowns. While Jamaal Williams scored the TDs, Swift was catching passes, hauling 48 receptions on 70 targets for 389 yards and three scores to finish as the RB24 overall and 16th in per-game scoring at 13.6 PPR.
It felt like every week Swift was dealing with some injury, and it showed up in his volume. Only three times last season did Swift record double-digit rushing attempts. In fact, he averaged only 7.1 rushes and 38.7 yards per game. If not for the receiving volume, Swift wouldn’t have been startable.
Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that when on the field, Swift was as efficient as ever, ranking second in yards per touch (6.3), fifth in breakaway run rate (8.1%), second in yards created per touch, seventh in EPA, and fifth in YPRR at 1.65. Those are all fantastic numbers and point toward the explosive upside that Swift had shown going back to when he was playing at Georgia.
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But to see that upside, Swift has to stay on the field. And that hasn’t been the case. You can pencil him in for three missed games all year, as that’s precisely what has happened in his three seasons. While I don’t want to classify 2023 as a make-or-break year this early, it’s not far off.
Unfortunately, the odds are already stacked against him as the NFL gave fantasy managers another lesson in value because, at the end of the day, it will tell you how you should value a player. The singing of David Montgomery on a three-year deal puts to bed any hopes for Swift to receive a lion’s share of the workload.
It’s likely safer to project him in the 8.0 or fewer carry-per-game range in 2023. That hurts. While Swift will maintain his receiving volume, the rushing usage that could have come his way with the departure of Williams will go right to Montgomery.
Swift is entering the final year of his rookie contract with Detroit. Having just turned 24, and while portions of his career have placed him among the NFL’s elite, if he can’t stay on the field, he’s going to be out of town and then at the mercy of the free agent market.
D’Andre Swift’s Dynasty Fantasy Ranking
Given the acquisition of Montgomery, I have had to move Swift out of the RB1 range for dynasty running backs. On Tuesday morning, he was the RB8. By the night’s end, Swift is the RB21 in PPR formats.
When it comes to Superflex leagues, where QBs see an increase in value due to positional scarcity, Swift is ranked 70th overall. However, that’s not yet including any rookies, so expect Swift’s tumble to continue when the likes of Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Zach Charbonnet are added.
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The time to sell Swift is likely gone. I would hold him unless you get an offer for a first-round pick this season. Although his stock didn’t take off the way many of us would have hoped, I wouldn’t rush to get rid of Swift at a 50% price cut, as he could surprise us if he, for one, stays healthy and, secondly, is back around 5.5 target/game range which is his two-year average (93 on 17-game pace).
Was this good? Absolutely not, but as long as Williams does not return, it is not the end of the world. I do not expect this to happen and would keep an eye on both Buffalo and Carolina. While it might look bleak for those who have rostered Swift since his draft, hold on for now and hope he can bounce back in 2023.