Jaguars’ Playoff Scenarios Week 17: Updated AFC South and No. 1 Seed Chances

The Jacksonville Jaguars have already secured a playoff berth heading into Week 17, but they still have a chance to clinch both the AFC South division title and the conference’s top seed. A win by the Houston Texans on Saturday prevented Jacksonville from locking the division, but the Jaguars remain well-positioned for both goals.

How the Jaguars Can Clinch the AFC South and Top Seed

After a midseason slump, the Jaguars have rattled off seven straight wins and currently sit atop the AFC South with a 12-4 record. While the Texans are tied in the win column after their victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville is still the frontrunner for the division.

According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, after their win in Week 17, the Jaguars have an 80.70% chance to win the division and a 10.50% chance to secure the top seed in the AFC.

To secure the AFC South crown, Jacksonville needed to win its remaining games against the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. That would give them a 13-4 record, ahead of Houston, which would finish 12-5 if it wins its final game. Since the Jaguars have already beaten the Colts, their path to the division title has become significantly easier.

Tipped at the line and headed the other way!@JarrianJones | #JAXvsIND on FOXpic.twitter.com/ViNZGDJPfj

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) December 28, 2025

If Jacksonville lost to the Colts, the Jaguars would have needed Houston to lose in Week 18 or to defeat the Titans themselves. In such cases, tiebreakers would be used to determine the division winner.

• Current divisional records: Jacksonville and Houston both are 4-1.
• Remaining divisional games: Jacksonville vs. Titans; Houston vs. Colts.

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If both teams finish with the same divisional record, the record of their common opponents serves as the next tiebreaker.

Beyond common opponents, tiebreakers proceed to conference record and strength of victory. Against common opponents, Jacksonville has a record of 10-3. Houston has a record of 8-4.

Past common opponents, the next tiebreakers are wins and losses within the team’s given conference, and then strength of victory.

The Jaguars will take their first AFC South title since 2022 if they win out, and will be no worse than the No. 3 seed. If the playoffs started today, they would face the Texans in the Wild Card round, who are currently the sixth seed.

For Jacksonville to win the top seed, they need the Denver Broncos to lose to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18, and hope the Patriots lose out or go 1-1 in their final two games.