NFL Draft betting: Finding value in Isaiah Simmons’ draft prop

With the 2020 NFL Draft just a few days away, rumors are flying about what teams may do and who may get drafted where. These swirling and ever-changing rumors see the draft stock of prospects bouncing around, as teams circulate both fake and real narratives to throw others off their plans come Thursday. One such player whose draft stock is fluctuating somewhat is Isaiah Simmons, and it has opened up a possibility of using these rumors to exploit value in his current draft props.

The changing narrative in New York

Just a week or so ago, the world of the NFL Draft had Simmons virtually locked in to be the fourth overall pick to the Giants. Then the Giants began their campaign of disinformation. Over the past week, the Giants have given the impression they might be taking an offensive tackle or even open to trading down out of the fourth overall spot.

The Giants would be foolish to not, at the very least, explore a trade down. However, if teams think they are locked into Simmons, they may hesitate to pick up the phone for fear of a wasted phone call. By floating out other potential picks, the Giants have sent out the signal they have options, and it should encourage teams to pick up the phone.

Downplaying their interest in Simmons has another benefit. If there are other teams in the top-10 in the draft looking at Simmons, they may have been looking to jump the Giants into the third overall pick to get their guy. With the changing narrative, they might now take the risk the Giants really are leaning elsewhere and stay put, leaving the Giants open to take Simmons at four.

Other shifting storylines

While the Giants are sending out the signal that maybe Simmons is not their guy, other storylines have emerged that put Simmons in the picture for other teams in the top-10. Rumors of Tua Tagovailoa’s failed medical may simply be another attempt by an organization to scare rivals off the former-Alabama quarterback. However, it may also be a legitimate concern that leads teams such as the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers into looking elsewhere in the fifth and sixth overall spots.

When you then add in the rumors that the Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, and Jacksonville Jaguars have their eyes on Simmons, then suddenly, there is the possibility that we see a team willing to move up and grab their guy. If rumors of concerns around Tagovailoa are true, then perhaps even the Chargers or Dolphins would be willing to slide down a few picks, hope to still get a quarterback, and pick up some more draft capital.

Of course, you simply cannot count out the fact the Detroit Lions themselves might take Simmons third overall. The talk currently is that they are going after cornerback Jeff Okudah, but that could be yet another smokescreen. In the changing landscape of the NFL Draft, anything could happen, and Simmons is proving to be one of the major chess pieces, alongside the two quarterbacks in Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert.

What do the numbers say?

Using the Pro Football Network Mock Draft Simulator, we ran 100 simulations on April 11th, in which Simmons went on average with the fifth pick. Throughout those 100 simulations, Simmons was taken as the sixth pick or earlier 76% of the time.

However, nine days is a long time in the world of the NFL Draft. Running those simulations today has seen those numbers shift closer to 60%, with the average holding steady between the fifth and sixth pick. While a 60% probability does not seem that high, it does provide us with an opportunity to seek to exploit value in Simmons’ draft prop.

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What are the options?

If you look closely enough, differing prices and odds among online sportsbooks can be exploited, especially when it comes to the NFL Draft. Simmons is no different, with the recent shift in the narrative leading to some books cooling off on his line, while others remain steady with their former lines.

Draft prop: Under pick 6.5 | +115 (DraftKings)

The shift in narrative out of New York has led to DraftKings moving their line against Simmons being drafted in the top-10. However, as we discussed above, Simmons is still being taken in the top-six picks on the PFN Mock Draft Simulator around 60% of the time as of the morning of April 20th. With the odds from DraftKings suggesting a likelihood that Simmons is drafted that high less than 50% of the time, the simulator would indicate that this line is offering a good value.

2u – Simmons drafted under pick 6.5 | +115

Draft prop: New York Giants to Draft Simmons | +400 (DraftKings)

In a similar vein, the Giants are no longer the favorites to draft Simmons on DraftKings. Now the simulator is less bullish on the Giants being the exact team to draft Simmons, but it is still happening a little over 33% of the time. According to DraftKings’ odds, the implied probability of Simmons to the Giants is just 22.2% making this line another value to attempt to exploit.

0.5u – New York Giants to draft Isaiah Simmons | +400

The hedging opportunity: Over pick 6.5 | +125 (MyBookie)

If you are inclined to hedge your bets and protect yourself, then MyBookie offers you that opportunity. With Simmons at positive odds on their site to be drafted at pick seven or later, you can protect yourself on the above bets by placing money on Simmons to slide down the draft. Now doing this hurts your margins if he does get drafted sixth or earlier, but if you are looking to mitigate the risk, then this is a smart bet to make.

Placing two units on this line with MyBookie means that you do not lose money on the two bets above if Simmons slides, but also offers the opportunity to still make a profit if Simmons is selected sixth or earlier or by the Giants following a trade down.

The only way you risk losing in this scenario is if Simmons is drafted at pick five or six by the Dolphins or Chargers or if the Panthers jump up into one of those picks and takes Simmons. This risk can be further mitigated with bets on the Dolphins (+1200, DraftKings) or Chargers (+800, DraftKings) if you are so inclined. However, at some point, you are just simply eating into your profit for the sake of not being wrong. While also leaving yourself vulnerable if one of the other seven teams in the top-10 decides to go hard after Simmons.

2u – Simmons drafted over pick 6.5 | +125