Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow regressed massively after his stellar 2021 campaign. Still slated for the team’s starting slot receiver role, does Renfrow have a bounce-back season in him? What is his fantasy football outlook for 2023?
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Hunter Renfrow’s Fantasy Outlook
Here are Renfrow’s PPR fantasy points per game averages for his four years in the NFL: 10.3, 8.2, 15.2, 7.9. One of these things is not like the others.
Renfrow was a fantastic story in the 2021 season. He was one of the top waiver pickups of the year, returning high-WR2 value and really being a consistent producer throughout the entire year. It was also a perfect confluence of events that led to Renfrow’s spike season.
The 2021 Raiders lacked a true WR1 — really any quality pass catchers outside of Darren Waller. They also had a horrible defense, resulting in them being in a lot of shootouts and Derek Carr attempting 626 passes. Everything came together for Renfrow to be a target hog.
Yet, despite Renfrow’s status as the team’s clear top receiver, he still wasn’t even a starter. Renfrow saw just a 66% snap share that season. He ran 64% of his routes from the slot and was really only on the field in three-receiver sets.
Renfrow ran a route on just 79.5% of pass plays. His average depth of target was 6.6, 86th in the league. He wasn’t really doing anything special — he was just the only guy and got peppered with volume.
In 2021, Renfrow’s target share was 21.7%. His second-highest career target share was 17.6%. Last season, it was 15.3%. Unsurprisingly, with the addition of Davante Adams, the Raiders no longer had a want or a need to inundate Renfrow with targets. He played 61% of the snaps, ran a route on 81% of pass plays, and was targeted on just 17.8% of his routes run, 71st in the league.
Renfrow is not and never was a priority in the Raiders’ offense. His outlier 2021 season was by virtue of necessity.
The Raiders have since traded away Waller, but they signed Jakobi Meyers as their WR2. He is going to start in two-receiver sets and play ahead of Renfrow, whose role will remain the same.
They also parted ways with Carr and signed Jimmy Garoppolo, but I don’t consider that to have a meaningful impact on Renfrow’s fantasy value, as it’s largely a lateral move.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Renfrow at His ADP?
As a rookie, Renfrow was rosterable as a WR5. But in 2020 and 2022, he was better left on the waiver wire.
My projections have Renfrow more in line with his 2020 and 2022 campaigns. I have him catching 54 passes for 549 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. That comes out to 7.2 ppg and a WR70 finish.
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Ironically, that’s actually way higher than what the consensus thinks of him. Renfrow’s ADP sits at WR75, No. 192 overall. I have Renfrow ranked as my WR76, right in line with consensus.
Renfrow will probably not even be drafted in standard-sized 12-team leagues. There are better players to take shots on late in drafts. Pass on Renfrow in 2023 fantasy leagues.
