The Houston Texans‘ preview dives into the fantasy football value of C.J. Stroud in a difficult spot, while the New York Jets‘ fantasy outlook determines if this is a good week for Breece Hall.
Houston Texans at New York Jets
- Spread: Texans -6.5
- Total: 34.5
- Texans implied points: 20.5
- Jets implied points: 14
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud: The Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner has thrown for over 270 yards in five straight games, finishing, on average, as the ninth-best fantasy QB over that run.
The cards are stacked against him a bit, though. Tank Dell is now out for the season, and this is a brutal matchup on the road against the second-best pass defense in terms of yards per attempt.
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Stroud has been sacked 12 times over his past three games (eight sacks in seven games prior), something that highlights the flaws of this offensive line more than any real concerns I have about Stroud.
Stroud is my QB10 this week. He’s not matchup-proof, but I trust the volume and the talent to still start him in a tough spot. The QB position isn’t as deep as you think it is, and benching Stroud is a difficult sell.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary: Singletary’s the lead back in this offense, but not by a wide margin. Last week, he handled the first two drives, but when all was said and done, his edge in snaps was just 31-26 (14-8 advantage in routes run).
Singletary’s path to mattering for fantasy purposes is via the passing game, and his role in that regard is why I have him a handful of spots higher than Dameon Pierce. However, neither is anything more than a low-end Flex option for me.
Singletary has two big games this season, and they’re his only games with more than 58 rushing yards. This offensive line is prohibitive in a major way, so if we are banking on two or three targets to drive his value, the floor/ceiling math just isn’t favorable.
Dameon Pierce: The next game in which Pierce averages 4.0 yards per carry will be his first of the season.
He was able to get loose for a 22-yard run last week against arguably the worst run defense in the league, yet he totaled 19 yards on his other 14 carries.
Given that a league-high 43.5% of yards gained against the Jets come on the ground, Pierce should have his chances to produce very low-end Flex numbers. But without access to any ceiling (one touchdown since September, four receiving yards over his past four games), is he worth plugging in? Not for me.
Breece Hall: Having produced RB2 numbers in just one of his past five games, Hall’s raw talent is losing out to the ineptitude of this offense as a whole. That’s a trend that may not change this week against a Texans defense that is third-best against the run on a per-carry basis.
Hall’s ability to produce in the passing game creates a floor that makes him a top-24 option for me (39.3 receiving yards per game since the Week 7 bye). The floor is more worrisome than the upside is encouraging, in my opinion, so I’m not going in this direction in the DFS streets.
With that said, I doubt that your roster is built in such a way that Hall isn’t a starter in season-long formats.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins: With consecutive 100-yard games and 32 targets over his past three games, Collins has returned to the alpha role that we saw him flirt with during the first month of the season.
I was comfortable locking him in before the Dell injury, and with the increase in target expectancy as a result of that unfortunate happening, Collins is in the Mike Evans/Chris Olave conversation for me this week — and for the final month of the season.
Tank Dell: The storybook rookie season is over after Dell suffered a fractured fibula. Don’t be sad that it’s over; be glad that it happened.
Dell is a big reason your fantasy team has a chance.
Noah Brown: The 27-year-old was held without a catch in his return to action last weekend against the Broncos, reinforcing the idea that Brown has some bust in his profile that comes loaded with potential (two games with over 150 yards).
How do you rank him? This week, I’m down a bit due to the matchup and have Brown ranked outside of my top 35, flirting with receivers like Odell Beckham Jr. In a better matchup (next week in Tennessee, for example), Brown will push into the strong Flex-play territory, a tier that Garrett Wilson and Jakobi Meyers currently occupy.
MORE: Should Fantasy Managers Target Noah Brown or Robert Woods on the Week 14 Waiver Wire?
John Metchie III played slightly ahead of Robert Woods following Dell’s injury, but neither of them should be considered viable fantasy assets. Yes, they are pieces that will be involved in this explosive offense, but without true role clarity in a tough matchup, they’re both fighting an uphill battle to project favorably in even the deepest of formats.
Garrett Wilson: With 103 receiving yards over the past three weeks (25 targets), this offense is starting to drag Wilson down, something that wasn’t consistently the case over the first two months of this season.
The target count remains elite (10.8 since the Week 7 bye), and a plus-matchup like this — Houston gives up the fourth-most yards per pass attempt — lands him inside my top 30 at the position and a fine Flex play despite the ineptitude of the Jets’ offense.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz and Brevin Jordan: A hamstring injury sidelined Schultz last week and limited him the week before against the Jags (one catch for two yards), resulting in the discussion in fantasy circles that he belongs as a TE blubber.
I’m not here for the Schultz slander, especially with Dell’s target share needing to be reallocated. He was a top-10 TE in six of seven games before this hamstring limited him, so if we get word that he is nearing full health, I’m ready to plug him in as a top-10 option at the position.
If he doesn’t play, you can essentially replace Schultz with Brevin Jordan in my ranks. Jordan ran a route on 77.1% of Stroud dropbacks last week, and that was in a game where Houston began with the belief that they’d have their top three receivers all on the field.
With the knowledge that Dell is sidelined, I expect this team to shift more of the pass-catching responsibilities to the TE position, thus making that 77.1% rate something of a floor, should this again be the Jordan show.
Tyler Conklin: I wrote about his boring productivity to open this week in my Week 14 TE streamers piece, and I’m still there with Conklin. The upside is certainly capped, but he’s a good bet for six targets in a game script that figures to favor the pass. If he can catch the four passes that he has averaged since Week 9, he’s going to offer viable PPR production.
The TE position can very much be a “just don’t lose me my matchup” situation, and if the rest of your team is loaded, a player like Conklin can get the job done.
Should You Start Chris Godwin or Noah Brown?
Brown figures to fill the slot role in this potent Texans passing attack with Dell out for the remainder of the season, and that’s a role I want to bet on. Godwin’s floor, in theory, is slightly higher, but the floor is lower than we expected it to be, and the ceiling has been non-existent.
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I’m more than happy to swallow the risk that comes with Brown to gain access to his potential.
Should You Start Drake London or Garrett Wilson?
The idea of playing London against a pass funnel like the Buccaneers makes sense, but until we see sustained volume, I’m not comfortable going in that direction. He hasn’t seen more than seven looks since Week 6 and has been held under 60 receiving yards in four of his past five. Wilson carries the same level of risk, but at least the volume figures to be in his favor.
My best bet on the PFN Betting Podcast this week was the Texans’ team total of over 19.5 points, and if they are pushing the Jets into an aggressive script, I like Wilson’s floor/ceiling combination even more than most weeks.
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