Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich has emerged as a very popular sophomore-year breakout candidate. After a delayed start to his career, Dulcich was more effective than anyone could’ve expected from a third-round rookie. Should fantasy football managers draft Dulcich at his ADP this season?
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Greg Dulcich’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
It’s exceedingly rare for rookie tight ends to matter at all in fantasy football. It’s even less common for third-round rookies.
Last season, Dulcich didn’t make his NFL debut until Week 6, but the moment he did, he became one of the top waiver wire pickups.
In his first career game, Dulcich played 65% of the snaps and posted a top-12 weekly finish.
Dulcich played 10 games in his rookie season. He finished as a TE1 in five of them. Of course, he mixed in some total stinkers, but that’s to be expected from any non-elite tight end.
Dulcich commanded a 17.2% target share as a rookie. Additionally, he wasn’t merely seeing targets near the line of scrimmage. His 10.6 average depth of target was third in the league. According to Inside Edge, his 5.8 yards after the catch was tied for ninth-best of 33 qualified NFL TEs.
Tight ends typically don’t hit their prime until several years into their careers. However, sophomore-year breakouts are a real thing, especially for tight ends who were efficient as rookies. Everything about Dulcich’s rookie performance suggests he is a tight end to target in 2023.
Yet, I find myself shying away from Dulcich in fantasy drafts. Why?
Is Dulcich a Good Fantasy Pick?
Perhaps I am overrating preseason usage, but there’s no doubt Dulcich’s is concerning. He’s listed as the TE2 on the depth chart, behind Adam Trautman. Sean Payton has a connection with Trautman going back to New Orleans. In the preseason, Trautman has been playing clearly ahead of Dulcich.
Last year, we saw clear signs from the Broncos that popular late-round TE flier Albert Okwuegbunam was not an important part of the offense. He played into the fourth quarter of the team’s final preseason game. However, fantasy managers dismissed this and drafted Albert O anyway.
Well, as it turned out, he was, in fact, a completely irrelevant member of the roster and the fourth TE on the depth chart. This is not a mistake I intend to repeat.
I am not a believer in Payton as some sort of savior. I am not a believer in a Russell Wilson resurgence. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are going to be the two target earners on this team.
As the clear TE1, Wilson could support Dulcich as well. But if he’s sharing work with Trautman, I do not buy that this offense will be potent enough to sustain his fantasy value.
MORE: Fantasy Football Preseason Takeaways
Dulcich’s ADP remains TE11, No. 127 overall. Initially, I had Dulcich inside my top 12 TEs. I have since moved him down to TE16, making me the lowest on him in our PFN consensus rankings.
During early drafts, Dulcich was the go-to late-round TE target for me. Now, I am completely out.