The New York Giants have limped through the 2025 NFL season, with former head coach Brian Daboll being dismissed and first-round rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart dealing with injuries.
That said, while it’s been rough, the Giants have a potential first overall pick to look forward to. With another loss in Week 15, Giants fans can start to feel the reality of landing the No. 1 selection. What are the Giants’ chances of earning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
What Are the New York Giants’ Chances of Earning the No. 1 Overall Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
For Giants fans hoping for the No. 1 pick, they won’t care about losing to the Commanders. One more team out of the race and the Giants inch closer. According to PFSN’s NFL Football Playoff Meter, the Giants have a 32.40% chance of earning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Giants have the second-highest chance of earning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, behind only the Las Vegas Raiders, who are listed with a 35% chance.
Additionally, the 3-10 New Orleans Saints are situated in sixth place with a 3.9% chance of earning the No. 1 overall pick, but the Giants have a head-to-head loss to the Saints that would help them in a tiebreaker scenario.
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If the Giants enter a tie with more than one team for the first overall pick, the first applied tiebreaker will be win-loss-tie record against common opponents. The next applied tiebreaker will be the strength of victory in all games.
Past that, the remaining tiebreakers would be combined ranking of points scored and points allowed, best net points in all games, best net touchdowns in all games, and — in a worst-case chaos scenario — a coin toss for whichever two remaining teams.
Giants’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
PFSN’s Strength of Schedule metric ranks New York’s remaining schedule as the third easiest.
- Week 16: vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Week 17: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 18: vs. Dallas Cowboys
The unique feature of the Giants’ situation is that, while their remaining schedule is relatively easy, they have also obviously not excelled at winning games in 2025.
The PFSN NFL FPM gives the Raiders the edge for the No. 1 overall pick, in large part, because of their Week 17 matchup with the Giants. The Giants should win that game, and if they do, the Raiders would have the inside track for the No. 1 overall pick — so long as they lose all other games.
The Raiders are the clear favorite to secure the No. 1 pick. They aren’t close to being favored in their remaining games and very likely could lose out. There’s plenty of other teams in the race, but the Giants, Raiders, and Titans are the obvious top three contenders.
For the Giants, who are already situated as one of the leaders in the No. 1 overall pick race, it’s simple. If they want to complete the tank, losing out and losing to the Raiders ensures their fate. If they beat the Raiders, as is most likely, it’ll set them back in the order.
Beating the Raiders would crush their chances, but losing to them wouldn’t solidify them either. The Vikings could be taken down with a solid performance because of J.J. McCarthy’s inconsistencies and the Giants barely lost to the Cowboys earlier in the season, although a much different Dallas squad. The Giants have a chance at losing out, but they’ve played many teams close and have the talent to sneak wins out.
