News has emerged that the Pittsburgh Steelers are sending George Pickens to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for draft capital, a move that has a significant impact on the fantasy football landscape — not just for Pickens, but for the offense he’s joining as well as the one he’s leaving.
George Pickens Trade: Fantasy Football Spin
Details of the Steelers-Cowboys trade expected to be completed today, per sources.
🏈Steelers receive 2026 3rd-round pick and a 2027 5th-round pick.
🏈Cowboys receive WR George Pickens and a 2026 6th-round pick.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 7, 2025
Let’s take a look at all of the affected parties and determine their value as we sit here today for the upcoming season.
George Pickens
The proper place to start with any trade is the player who is actually on the move. Pickens was a second-round pick just three seasons ago, and while there have been flashes of alpha WR1 material, he’s yet to really break out.
- 2022: 801 yards and four TDs in 17 games (WR49 – PPR per game)
- 2023: 1,140 yards and five TDs in 17 games (WR36)
- 2024: 900 yards and 3 TDs in 14 games (WR35)
There is no shortage of moving pieces in trying to evaluate Pickens as a player, let alone a fantasy asset. He lacked stable quarterback play during his time in Pittsburgh, but he also played into some of the offensive struggles with a lack of consistent effort and attention to detail.
Last season, Pickens averaged a career-low 0.25 EPA per target, 1.62 fantasy points per target, and had fewer weekly finishes as WR18 or better (two) than former teammates in Diontae Johnson and Calvin Austin III (three apiece).
Pickens’ 9% drop rate and fiery antics certainly didn’t help build those numbers up, but Russell Wilson ranked 25th in our QB+ metric, which is right where the offensive line finished in our grading system as well. In theory, the former should take care of itself.
Pickens had a much more acceptable 3.7% drop rate through his first two seasons, and the attitude concerns, you’d hope, would disappear if they were the result of not being happy with the franchise he was playing for. The latter is also in a good position to rebound.
Dak Prescott has finished inside our top 12 quarterbacks in five of his seven healthy (10+ games played) seasons, and Dallas’ offensive line was addressed with the selection of Alabama guard Tyler Booker in April at No. 12 overall.
I had Pickens ranked as WR41 prior to this trade, and he’s now flirting with my top 30, in the same tier as other very talented pass catchers who profile as a clear second option on their respective teams (Jaylen Waddle, Jauan Jennings, DeVonta Smith, etc.).
From a sheer projection standpoint, this is an uptick in his value because he’s playing alongside a WR1 who is more versatile than what Pittsburgh had, plus the quality of play under center is certainly stronger.
What spreadsheets can’t see, however, is the track record of wide receivers leaving Pittsburgh. This is going to be a discussion point, and why I don’t currently plan on picking up many shares of Pickens this summer, barring a fall below where I expect his ADP to settle (and, ideally, after I have all my weekly starters already picked).
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: Nine TDs in his final full Steelers season, six since (46 games played for three different teams).
- Diontae Johnson: 85+ catches in three straight years with Pittsburgh; he suited up for three teams last year alone.
- Mike Wallace: 3,206 yards in his first three seasons, 4,866 for the rest of his career (for five different franchises).
- Antonio Brown: 16 games in three post-Steelers seasons highlighted by anything but on-field production.
You get the idea. Mike Tomlin has been credited with squeezing production out of distressed assets in the past. And while I think Pickens could very well take the production path of a pre-Tomlin Pittsburgh departure in Plaxico Burress (29 touchdowns and 3,227 receiving yards in his first three seasons with the New York Giants after five with the Steelers), there’s a level of unknown risk that at least has to be considered.
CeeDee Lamb
No reason to overthink this one. CeeDee Lamb was my WR6 before the trade and is my WR6 after it. Anything he gives back in terms of target share should be more than made up for by an increase in target quality as a result of lesser defensive attention.
Did you know that Amari Cooper, circa 2021, was the last time the Cowboys had a non-Lamb receiver reach 660 receiving yards?
A little support goes a long way and should allow him to rebound from a six-touchdown 2024 season that saw him clear 100 catches for a third straight season, but also average a career-low 11.8 yards per grab.
Dak Prescott
Prescott was hovering around QB20 for me entering the NFL Draft, but with some help on the offensive line and now the luxury of a WR2, he’s my QB14 and on the “if you wait to address the position” radar.
It’s easy to forget that we are less than 24 months removed from Prescott throwing for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns. An aging Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup were his two most involved receivers next to Lamb that season, and I’d take Pickens right now over the peak of either one of them — versions that weren’t on the field for Dallas in 2023.
Despite a lack of depth in the support department and limited rushing upside, Prescott’s pocket presence allowed him to post seven top-three weekly finishes at the position. Expecting that level of production is more optimistic than I’m willing to be, but could he be 80% of that? Maybe 85%?
From an eye in the sky perspective, why can’t this Lamb/Pickens duo be the NFC’s version of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, a tandem that has fueled Joe Burrow (a better version of Prescott), averaging nearly 4,700 yards and 35 touchdowns per 17 games for his career?
Lamb and Pickens
- Combined height: 12’5”
- Combined weight: 400 pounds
- Combined current age: 50
- One first-round pick
- One second-round pick
Chase and Higgins
- Combined height: 12’4”
- Combined weight: 420 pounds
- Combined current age: 51
- One first-round pick
- One second-round pick
Yes, I realize that’s a bit of a reach, which is why Prescott is my QB14 while Burrow sits at QB5. That said, Prescott’s name now deserves to be in the Jared Goff/Jordan Love tier of fantasy signal-callers, not the Tua Tagovailoa/Trevor Lawrence tier that he resided in, for me, prior to this deal.
DK Metcalf
It was unclear what the Steelers had in mind this offseason when they acquired DK Metcalf from the Seattle Seahawks. They were adding a duplicative skill set to a traditionally run-centric offense that was without clarity under center.
We still lack the latter, but at least the question of how targets are being distributed is out of the way. I’m still operating under the assumption that Aaron Rodgers finds his way to Pittsburgh, and that is why I still have Metcalf ranked as a fine Flex option and just ahead of Pickens.
The uncertainty of the QB situation pulls him down a few spots (he’d jump into the WR25 conversation for me if Rodgers put pen to paper today), but that hope saves him from being ranked outside of my top 35, in the same neighborhood as other receivers with questions under center (Tetairoa McMillan and Jordan Addison, for example).
During Metcalf’s NFL career, one that has included receivers like Mike Evans, Chase, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and others posting dominant stretches, he owns three of the top 10 end-zone target seasons.
Say what you will about Rodgers, but he can still pay off fantasy pass catchers when it matters most. Last season, he was QB11 in end-zone passer rating and 22nd on passes thrown elsewhere.
The power of touchdowns can’t be overlooked, even in a PPR setting where they are inherently less valuable than other formats. Addison is WR27 on a per-game basis over the past two seasons despite averaging fewer catches than Zay Flowers and fewer targets than a well-past-his-prime DeAndre Hopkins.
Other Pieces
I don’t think the running games of either Dallas or Pittsburgh see their value change in a meaningful way. The Cowboys figure to be in scoring position more after this trade, but you could just as easily argue that the uptick in pass rate over expectation will cancel out any benefits from an increase in quality of touch.
The Steelers seemingly made a move this offseason to commit to Jaylen Warren by letting Najee Harris walk, but they picked up Kenneth Gainwell and drafted Kaleb Johnson. In a perfect world, you’re not entering the 2025 fantasy season relying on running backs from either of these teams on a consistent basis, and that hasn’t changed as a result of this move.
The hypothetical value of Rodgers obviously takes a hit here, but does it matter? He got hot at the end of last season, which elevated him all the way up to QB18 for the year. That ranking came in a season where Anthony Richardson was benched, Lawrence and C.J. Stroud underachieved, and the Caleb Williams/Drake Maye tandem was getting their feet wet.
He’s unlikely to be worth it in any capacity this season. At best, Rodgers shows us something with time and profiles as a matchup-dependent bye-week filler who can bail you out if needed.
Jake Ferguson loses some steam here and has fallen outside of my top 10 tight ends. I think he’s a good player, but the clear-cut third option in a passing game where I identify both of the players ahead of him as legitimate touchdown threats is a tough sell given the increased depth league-wide at the position.
Before the deal, I would have drafted Ferguson over the incoming rookies, but that’s no longer the case. He’s now a late-round pick who can be moved on from after September if it’s clear that he’s just not a focal point of this passing attack — much like the other tight ends he shares a division with.