Despite catching the majority of his passes from players like Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, Joe Flacco, and Mike White — Garrett Wilson has still managed to be a useful fantasy football asset for managers in full-PPR formats.
The real question entering the 2024 NFL season is how high his fantasy ceiling is with Aaron Rodgers under center.
Garrett Wilson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 316.5
- Receptions: 129.5
- Receiving Yards: 1,560.9
- Receiving TDs: 5.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Wilson This Year?
The aggressive projections tied to Wilson entering the 2024 NFL season feel slightly like a leap of faith.
There is no denying the fact that Wilson is an ascending talent and should get a significant upgrade regarding the level of play from the quarterback position this year, but projecting 129 receptions and 1,560 yards for a player who has never topped 100 receptions of 1,200 yards in a season feels aggressive.
Wilson’s Season Stats:
- 2023: 95 receptions, 1,042 yards, three TDs (WR26 overall)
- 2022: 83 receptions, 1,103 yards, four TDs (WR21 overall)
Does Wilson’s lack of elite production require some context? Absolutely. The New York Jets‘ offense averaged just 171 passing yards per game in 2023 (30th in the league). Additionally, New York averaged only 15.8 points per game (29th).
Naturally, this type of ineptitude from the offense as a whole can be attributed to the putrid level of quarterback play Wilson has been subjected to throughout his first two years in the league. This is why a player who finished 2023 with 168 targets (fourth in the NFL) finished outside of the top 25 at the WR position in full-PPR formats.
Fortunately, help is set to arrive in the form of a four-time league MVP stepping in under center; Rodgers is expected to be fully recovered from his torn Achilles in the 2023 season opener.
MORE: Fantasy Team Names | Fantasy League Names
A dynamic playmaker like Wilson who can line up all over the formation and win on all three levels of the football field could lead to the type of target funnel Davante Adams enjoyed with Rodgers during their days together with the Green Bay Packers.
Now, questions remain about which version of Rodgers fans will see in 2024 and how that could impact Wilson’s fantasy ceiling entering his third year in the league. However, if Rodgers is capable of playing at even an average starter’s level this season, then it would likely be considered a significant upgrade for Wilson.
Wilson’s target competition isn’t exactly elite either. Breece Hall led all running backs last year with 76 receptions last year, but players like Mike Williams, Malachi Corley, and Tyler Conklin shouldn’t exactly threaten Wilson’s already elite 30.1% target share in 2024.
KEEP READING: Bye Week Schedule
Wilson’s average draft position (ADP) at No. 13 overall, going off the board in the second round as the WR8, certainly suggests fantasy managers are sipping the Kool-Aid with 2024 potentially being a breakout fantasy year for the former Ohio State Buckeye because he is being drafted far closer to his ceiling than his established floor through the first two years of his career.
Is drafting Wilson ahead of Nico Collins, Chris Olave, and Adams a bit aggressive? Perhaps. But the serviceable production we’ve seen from Wilson over the last two years — despite the clear lack of competent quarterback play — leaves a plausible projection for a career year for the Jets WR in 2024.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Analysis on Garrett Wilson
Wilson is going around the Round 1-2 turn in most leagues, nearly identical to where he checked in at this time last year, which makes sense. Realistically, why would we pivot from our Rodgers-based excitement around him after having not seen it?
If I’m getting into the Wilson business this season, I’d want to insulate my roster with some safety. Wilson carries enough upside to afford you the luxury to do so, so I’d be looking to pair him with seemingly “safe” players like Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, or Puka Nacua in the first two rounds.
Every draft is different, but these are players with locked-in roles who provide a solid foundation for pursuing the Rodgers/Wilson tandem. I also wouldn’t be against pushing all of your chips in and drafting Rodgers late as a draft-two-for-one-spot play at the quarterback position.
If you’re drafting Wilson as the key member of your championship team, you’re already betting on Rodgers, so why not fully embrace it?