Jacksonville Jaguars WR Gabe Davis left an insulated offensive environment in Buffalo this offseason for a bit of an unknown when it comes to defined receiver roles. Calvin Ridley is gone, but Brian Thomas Jr. was added to this Trevor Lawrence-led offense that has underachieved in years past.
Can Davis earn targets at an improved rate and thus improve his consistency? Or are fantasy football managers destined to see more of the same — a random number generator that is always on your bench when the big game comes?
Gabe Davis’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 146 (106 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 41
- Receiving Yards: 678
- Receiving TDs: 7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Davis This Year?
If you’ve been playing this game of ours for any length of time, you’re likely aware of Davis’ profile. His year-end numbers generally end up in the same spot (6-7 touchdown receptions while averaging well north of 15 yards per catch), but the path of getting there is about as irritating as humanly imaginable.
Career Stats
- Points per game (PPR): 9.3
- 20+ point games: 8
- 0-point games: 10
In a single stat, that is the Davis conundrum. The annual stats are fine, but if you only got credit for 35% of them because you (rightfully) feared the inconsistencies, his impact on your roster is far less than a player with viable season numbers should be.
Does that change now that he’s taken his talents south?
My #Jaguars Stat of the Day!
17% of Gabe Davis’ career Recs have been TDs!
pic.twitter.com/4osCHgnkaB— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis)
I’d be lying to you if I said I had complete confidence in that being the case, but the price of admission to the Davis roller coaster is at least tolerable now.
As an industry, we spent the past two seasons trying to prove how smart we were and wanted to get ahead of what we thought was an inevitable breakout for this talented receiver.
ADP by season
- 2022: 66th overall (WR27, ahead of Amari Cooper)
- 2023: 102nd overall (WR43, ahead of Zay Flowers)
- 2024: 137th overall (WR64, behind Josh Downs)
“We are in a buy zone” has been uttered before regarding Davis, but the risk is truly mitigated at this price point. The bullish case on Davis is that he has as clear a path to targets now as ever, and his production with opportunities has never been an issue.
Since entering the league, 54 receivers have at least 250 targets, and Davis ranks 12th in fantasy production relative to expectation. For reference in terms of the company kept in that regard:
12. Davis: +12.6%
13. Cooper Kupp: +12.4%
14. Tee Higgins: +11.9%
15. Amon-Ra St. Brown: +9.9%
16. Davante Adams: +9.6%
If you believe that the concerning targets per route run numbers are going to correct, there is nothing wrong with, again, taking a flier on Davis as a stash option in the 12th-13th round, where his ADP stands.
Targets per route run
- 2021: 18.7%
- 2022: 16.0%
- 2023: 14.6% (Trey Palmer and Justin Watson range)
The Jaguars ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation last season and trust Lawrence to guide them, making me think that a top-10 mark is a good bet in 2024. There are other interesting names in this range (namely, a pair of Green Bay Packers in MarShawn Lloyd and Dontayvion Wicks). Davis is as worthy of your consideration as anyone, even with the iffy track record.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Gabe Davis
Davis’ talent is what it is. He hasn’t really shown much improvement over the course of his career. He’s an inconsistent stretch Z — a splash play specialist. There’s a reason his catch rate is consistently around 55%. In the right environment, though, that can work for fantasy.
The problem with Davis is how the environment can ever be better than it was in Buffalo. He had Josh Allen, a top-three quarterback. The Bills had no viable WR2 behind Stefon Diggs, creating all the opportunity in the world for Davis. The reality is Davis was unable to command targets.
Now, Davis heads to Jacksonville for a fresh start. That can often be good for players. In Davis’ case, though, it’s hard to see it.
For starters, Davis is facing a massive downgrade in quarterback play. Allen is one of the best QBs in the league. Trevor Lawrence is mediocre, at best.
Second, there’s actually more target competition in Jacksonville than in Buffalo. Even though the Jaguars lack an alpha target hog like prime Diggs, they have two very capable pass-catchers in Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. They also added first-round wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who could very well immediately be the best WR on this team. Davis is now competing with three talented players for targets instead of just one.
I have Davis ranked as my WR57, which is slightly above consensus. However, this late in drafts, that gap is largely meaningless. These players are all similarly valued, and you can take your pick of who you want to target. For my money, Davis is not the type of guy I’m looking to target.
