Mike Florio’s prediction that NFL owners will lock out players in 2031 until they agree to an 18-game season isn’t speculation. It’s a reading of history the union can’t afford to ignore.
“They will lock out the players like they did in 2011 until the players cry uncle and agree to an 18th game,” Florio told PFSN this week, adding that an 18-game schedule with two bye weeks would push the season opener to Labor Day weekend, allowing the Super Bowl to land on Presidents’ Day.
The prediction comes at a moment when the NFLPA finds itself structurally weaker than at any point since the 2011 lockout.
NFLPA Leadership Void at the Worst Possible Time
NFLPA interim executive director David White made the union’s position clear Tuesday at the Super Bowl 60 press conference in San Francisco: players have no appetite for an 18th game.
“The 18th game is not casual for us. It’s a very serious issue,” White told reporters. “As it stands right now, the players have been very clear. They don’t have any appetite for it.”
Strong words. But White is an interim director leading a union still searching for permanent leadership after last summer’s chaos.
Lloyd Howell resigned in July 2025 amid scandals that included expensing strip club visits to the union, an FBI investigation into financial dealings, and conflicts of interest tied to his consulting role with the Carlyle Group, a private equity firm approved to invest in NFL franchises. Chief strategy officer J.C. Tretter followed him out the door days later.
The union has not announced a timeline for hiring a permanent executive director. That search continues while the clock ticks toward 2031.
Commissioner Roger Goodell addressed the 18-game question Monday with diplomatic restraint. “We have not had any formal discussions about it and, frankly, very little, if any, informal conversations,” Goodell said. “It is not a given that we will do that.”
Patriots owner Robert Kraft was less coy a week earlier, telling Boston radio that teams will move to 18 regular-season games and two preseason games, with every franchise playing one game overseas annually. “I want to tell you guys that we’re going to push like the dickens now,” Kraft said.
When an owner talks like that and the commissioner demurs, the owner is telling you what’s coming. The commissioner is managing optics.
The 2011 Playbook Still Works
The mechanics of owner leverage haven’t changed. In 2011, owners locked in approximately $4 billion in guaranteed television revenue before negotiations collapsed. That money flowed to the league whether games were played or not.
Judge David Doty ruled the NFL had been “actively strategizing for a lockout” for two years and structured the TV deals to “advance its own interests and harm the interests of the players.”
Players decertified their union, filed antitrust lawsuits, and fought in court for months. The lockout lasted 132 days. When it ended, owners won a rookie wage scale that dramatically reduced spending on top draft picks, and the revenue split moved in their favor. The 18-game season was shelved, but only to be used as leverage later.
That leverage arrived in 2020. Facing a pandemic and the threat of another work stoppage, the NFLPA agreed to a 17th game.
White acknowledged the dynamic Tuesday: late-season injuries to stars like Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons, plus the playoff toll that included George Kittle’s ruptured Achilles, underscore the physical cost of additional games. “When your average career is already 3-4 years, that becomes something that is existential,” White said.
The union knows the 18th game means more wear and tear on players’ bodies. Owners know the union’s resistance softens when a lockout becomes real. The 2011 blueprint proved the strategy works. The 2020 negotiation confirmed it.
What’s different now is the NFLPA’s capacity to mount a defense. A union in leadership transition, still rebuilding trust after public scandals, faces owners with unified messaging and long-term horizons.
The current CBA runs through the 2030 season and expires in March 2031. That gives the union roughly five years to find a permanent executive director, rebuild internal cohesion, and prepare for a fight against opponents who already know exactly how they’ll win.
Florio isn’t predicting a lockout. He’s describing the inevitable outcome of a negotiation where one side has all the leverage and the other can barely keep its leadership in place.
The 18-game season is coming. The only question is how much the players lose before they agree.
