Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we all love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
Here are my top Underdog plays for the Thursday Night Football Pick ’em contest between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Thursday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
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The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick ’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s Thursday night Underdog Pick’ems.
Adam Thielen Higher Than 6.5 Receptions
The Bears have actually been sneaky good at defending the WR position. They’re not exactly a tough matchup, but they’re certainly not an easy matchup, either. However, where they do struggle is specifically at defending the slot. They’re allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game out of the slot.
Prior to last week, Adam Thielen had caught at least seven passes in six straight games. Given the Bears’ struggles at defending the slot, combined with the Panthers likely wanting to simplify things for the struggling Bryce Young, I’m expecting a lot of short throws to Thielen for easy completions.
Terrace Marshall Lower Than 28.5 Receiving Yards
Over his past three games, Terrace Marshall has a total of nine receiving yards. To be fair, he hasn’t played much over that span. The reason his projection is even this high is because DJ Chark is out tonight.
While we have seen Marshall command a high target share before (he had 10 targets in Week 4), most of the time, he’s irrelevant.
Given what I mentioned above about the Bears locking down outside receivers and struggling against the slot, I find it hard to believe Marshall is going to have any real success getting open. I don’t think he catches more than one or two balls, even without Chark in the lineup.
The Bears Pick’Em
As of right now, we don’t have any projections for Khalil Herbert or D’Onta Foreman. And there is nothing that jumps out at me with the pass catchers.
For an official entry, we need a pick’em from both teams. As a result, I will have one for the Bears at some point. However, we are at the mercy of when Underdog posts their projections. Be sure to check back throughout the day, as I will add something here as soon as I can.
Update
D’Onta Foreman Higher Than 55.5 Rushing Yards
Thursday morning, Tom Pelissero reported that the Bears were unlikely to activate Khalil Herbert from IR. That means another week of D’Onta Foreman in the clear lead back role.
Am I being suckered here? Why is this projection only 55.5 yards? Foreman just ran for 83 yards against the Saints’ elite run defense last week. Now, he gets a Panthers run defense allowing the second-most rushing yards per game at 120. They’re allowing 4.8 yards per carry, which is 0.38 more than Foreman’s impressive 4.42 ypc.
Given Foreman’s role, he can volume his way to beating this projecting even if he’s inefficient. But if he remains efficient, there’s a legitimate chance he surpasses this number in the first half.
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