Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re to help you make those decisions with our early fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 12. We have more than enough in-season data and can play matchups based on reliable information. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 12 quarterback start/sit plays.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 12 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet.
Geno Smith | SEA (vs. ARI)
Start ‘Em
As someone who rosters Joe Burrow and Josh Allen in multiple leagues, I understand the importance of finding the right alternative this week.
I’ve had Geno Smith stashed for two weeks now in anticipation of this matchup. Smith has been useful for most of the year, having posted seven games of at least 16 fantasy points. We can work with that.
This week, Smith gets an Arizona Cardinals defense that is 11th-worst in defensive EPA (expected points added) per dropback. Although Arizona allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, a big part of that is its opponents scoring nearly half their touchdowns on the ground.
As long as Kenneth Walker III doesn’t steal all of the touchdowns this week, Smith should be a viable fill-in for the missing elite QBs.
Justin Herbert | LAC (vs. BAL)
Start ‘Em
Not only is Justin Herbert a must-start this week, he could very well end up being the top-scoring fantasy quarterback.
To open the season, the Los Angeles Chargers were extremely run heavy. Herbert was dealing with a foot injury that limited his mobility, and they scored most of their touchdowns on the ground. The change over the past few weeks, however, has been jarring.
Since Week 8, Herbert hasn’t scored below 19 fantasy points and is averaging 21.9 per game. Does that remind you of someone? (Hint: 2020 and 2021 Justin Herbert)
On the season, the Chargers have the 12th-highest neutral game script run rate. They are still a run-first offense, but Jim Harbaugh has shown a willingness to call pass plays if the situation calls for it.
Herbert has also been running much more since getting healthier.
Justin Herbert is averaging 37 rushing yards per game over his last four. During his first six games of the season, he was at 5.7 rushing yards per game.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 18, 2024
The Baltimore Ravens were able to contain Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, but we really shouldn’t read into Ravens-Steelers games– they’re not normal football games.
Baltimore is still the second-worst pass defense in football, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Expect Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to bounce back considerably next week, forcing Herbert to air it out once again.
Patrick Mahomes | KC (at CAR)
Sit ‘Em
Bench Patrick Mahomes against the Panthers? Why? It’s not like they have a great defense. Plus, they allow the 10th-most fantasy ppg to quarterbacks.
The issue is what it’s been all season. Mahomes does not produce for fantasy. He has a single game with more than 20 fantasy points. Even when finally facing negative game script against the Buffalo Bills, Mahomes threw for 196 yards and two touchdowns — he did not run at all.
The Chiefs should bounce back against the Panthers and win this game easily. That means a lot of Hunt (or maybe Pacheco). Maybe Mahomes ends up throwing all of the touchdowns.
But that’s what it would take for him to push QB1 numbers. I expect this to be a low-volume game for Mahomes. Do not let the matchup excite you.
Anthony Richardson | IND (vs. DET)
Sit ‘Em
In Anthony Richardson’s first game back as the starter, he had his best game of the season, throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown while adding two more scores on the ground. He led the Colts to a comeback win and will surely be the starter again this week.
Despite getting benched, Richardson’s potential never went away. He was a consensus top-five fantasy QB in August for a reason. There’s a chance he could still be that guy, I just need to see it again.
The Lions are the best team in football. Their once-struggling defense has turned things around, and they now allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
With the Colts likely to face negative game script, there’s definitely a chance Richardson could break through for a big outing. If he does, then we’ll know we can trust him going forward.
I think you should wait another week.