Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re to help you make those decisions with our fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 12. We have more than enough in-season data and can play matchups based on reliable information. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 12 start/sit plays.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 12?
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (vs. ARI)
As someone who rosters Joe Burrow and Josh Allen in multiple leagues, I understand the importance of finding the right alternative this week.
I’ve had Geno Smith stashed for two weeks now in anticipation of this matchup. Smith has been useful for most of the year, having posted seven games of at least 16 fantasy points. We can work with that.
This week, Smith gets an Arizona Cardinals defense that is 11th-worst in defensive EPA (expected points added) per dropback. Although Arizona allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, a big part of that is its opponents scoring nearly half their touchdowns on the ground.
As long as Kenneth Walker III doesn’t steal all of the touchdowns this week, Smith should be a viable fill-in for the missing elite QBs.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. BAL)
Not only is Justin Herbert a must-start this week, he could very well end up being the top-scoring fantasy quarterback.
To open the season, the Los Angeles Chargers were extremely run heavy. Herbert was dealing with a foot injury that limited his mobility, and they scored most of their touchdowns on the ground. The change over the past few weeks, however, has been jarring.
Since Week 8, Herbert hasn’t scored below 19 fantasy points and is averaging 21.9 per game. Does that remind you of someone? (Hint: 2020 and 2021 Justin Herbert)
On the season, the Chargers have the 12th-highest neutral game script run rate. They are still a run-first offense, but Jim Harbaugh has shown a willingness to call pass plays if the situation calls for it.
Herbert has also been running much more since getting healthier.
Justin Herbert is averaging 37 rushing yards per game over his last four. During his first six games of the season, he was at 5.7 rushing yards per game.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 18, 2024
The Baltimore Ravens were able to contain Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, but we really shouldn’t read into Ravens-Steelers games– they’re not normal football games.
Baltimore is still the second-worst pass defense in football, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Expect Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to bounce back considerably next week, forcing Herbert to air it out once again.
Kareem Hunt or Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (at CAR)
I am very confident in two things regarding the Kansas City Chiefs backfield. The first is that the Chiefs’ starting running back will smash this week. The second is that the instant Isiah Pacheco is ready to go, Kareem Hunt becomes completely useless in fantasy.
Pacheco returned to practice last week and is nearing a return. He’ll be back either this week or next.
My lean is the Chiefs opt to hold him out one more week on account of them playing in the Black Friday game in Week 13. If they activate Pacheco for Sunday, he would be playing in his first game since Week 2 with a short turnaround thereafter. The Chiefs do not need Pacheco to beat the Carolina Panthers, so I expect them to play it safe.
This would give fantasy managers one more week of Hunt. The interim RB1 has eaten volume for Kansas City but hasn’t done much with it. Hunt is averaging just 3.66 yards per carry. Outside of his flukey seven-reception outing against the Denver Broncos, he’s been a zero in the passing game.
For one more week, though, Hunt could be a viable fantasy starter. The Panthers allow the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have the second-worst defensive rush success rate in the league.
The Chiefs have a 47% neutral game script run rate. More importantly, they have a 60% positive game script (leading by 7+) run rate.
These are not your classic pass-happy Chiefs. Likely to lead throughout, this could be Hunt’s send-off game, where he sees 25 carries and runs all over Carolina. Whoever starts at RB for Kansas City this week needs to be in fantasy lineups.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders (vs. DAL)
This was written before Monday Night Football, so, as of the writing, I do not know how badly Joe Mixon torched the Dallas Cowboys on the ground. Regardless, this is a smash spot for Brian Robinson Jr.
The Washington Commanders’ RB1 returned last week after a two-game absence due to a strained hamstring. In a very weird game flow, Robinson still managed to score 14.2 fantasy points, carrying the ball 16 times for 63 yards and punching in a short touchdown.
With another 10 days to recover, Robinson should be a full go and is set up to smash a Cowboys defense that entered Monday night allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
The Commanders have a 49% neutral game script run rate, eighth-highest in the league. That ticks up to 56% in positive game script. I expect a whole lot of positive game script for Washington at home against one of the worst teams in football.
Bold prediction: Robinson scores three touchdowns this week.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears (vs. MIN)
If the Chicago Bears have any hope of defeating the Minnesota Vikings this week, they need to trust Caleb Williams. The rookie has been downright awful this season, performing well behind fellow rookies Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix.
Yet, Williams has shown some flashes. The Bears need to hope he can put it together this week. The Vikings are a top-five run defense but allow the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so Chicago must rely on the pass.
I am going with Rome Odunze as the Bears’ receiver to target because I sense a changing of the guard.
4. The Bears’ target shares today:
Rome Odunze – 32.3%
Keenan Allen – 25.8%
DJ Moore – 22.6%
Cole Kmet – 9.7%Odunze is the first Bears WR to command a 30%+ target share in any game this season.
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 18, 2024
We are now firmly in the second half of Odunze’s rookie season. This is right about when rookie WRs start to figure it out, and itt could be happening for him.
Keenan Allen looks like he is finally declining, and I can’t help but wonder if DJ Moore isn’t mentally checked out. This could be Odunze’s breakout game against a soft pass defense with a likely negative game script prompting a pass-heavy approach.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (at CLE)
I thought last week would be the George Pickens mega smash game. He came close, but his inability to find the end zone resulted in “only” 16.9 fantasy points.
Russell Wilson has been a godsend for Pickens. Since Week 7, Pickens has posted games of 22.1, 11.4, 20.5, and 16.9 fantasy points, respectively. This week, he gets a Cleveland Browns defense that is very vulnerable to the deep ball, which is Pickens’ specialty.
Teams throw downfield against Cleveland at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. With the Browns allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, there’s an outside shot Pickens goes for 200 this week.
Will Dissly, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. BAL)
If you think I am picking on the Ravens’ defense with my start recommendations, you’re correct. Herbert is an elite option this week, and so is his favorite tight end, Will Dissly. The former Seattle Seahawk has been rejuvenated as the Chargers’ TE1.
Dissly, whose nickname according to pro football reference is “Uncle Will” (which is phenomenal, by the way), is still nowhere close to an every-down player. However, when he’s on the field, he’s typically running routes, doing so more than triple his backup, Tucker Fisk.
Will Dissly has seen target shares of 29.7%, 23.3%, 11.5%, 33.3%, and 18.2% over his last five games.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 18, 2024
Dissly caught four passes for 80 yards and an excellent up-the-seam touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night in Week 11. It was his second 80-yard game in his last five.
Herbert finds Dissly up the seam! 29-yard touchdown!
📺: #CINvsLAC on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/zBH6Cpwcm4— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
Now, Dissly gets a Baltimore defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy ppg to tight ends. With Herbert really hitting his stride and this game likely to be high scoring, Dissly is firmly on the TE1 radar this week.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions (at IND)
After what the Detroit Lions did to the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, my concerns over positive game script neutralizing the passing game have been assuaged a bit. The Lions simply did not care and did whatever they wanted whenever they wanted.
This projects to be another game the Lions can control, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be any passing.
Sam LaPorta missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury that head coach Dan Campbell described as day-to-day. Although he didn’t practice at all, part of me thinks Detroit knew they could easily beat the worst team in football without him and, thus, played it safe.
If LaPorta is able to return to this week, he’s in a great spot against an Indianapolis Colts defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. It may not be heavy volume, but LaPorta will be a good bet to score.
In the event he cannot play, Brock Wright is a desperation streamer.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 12?
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (at CAR)
Bench Patrick Mahomes against the Panthers? Why? It’s not like they have a great defense. Plus, they allow the 10th-most fantasy ppg to quarterbacks.
The issue is what it’s been all season. Mahomes does not produce for fantasy. He has a single game with more than 20 fantasy points. Even when finally facing negative game script against the Buffalo Bills, Mahomes threw for 196 yards and two touchdowns — he did not run at all.
The Chiefs should bounce back against the Panthers and win this game easily. That means a lot of Hunt (or maybe Pacheco). Maybe Mahomes ends up throwing all of the touchdowns.
But that’s what it would take for him to push QB1 numbers. I expect this to be a low-volume game for Mahomes. Do not let the matchup excite you.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (vs. DET)
In Anthony Richardson’s first game back as the starter, he had his best game of the season, throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown while adding two more scores on the ground. He led the Colts to a comeback win and will surely be the starter again this week.
Despite getting benched, Richardson’s potential never went away. He was a consensus top-five fantasy QB in August for a reason. There’s a chance he could still be that guy, I just need to see it again.
The Lions are the best team in football. Their once-struggling defense has turned things around, and they now allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
With the Colts likely to face negative game script, there’s definitely a chance Richardson could break through for a big outing. If he does, then we’ll know we can trust him going forward.
I think you should wait another week.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. BAL)
Gus Edwards’ return hasn’t necessarily reduced J.K. Dobbins’ snap share (played 73% of the snaps against the Bengals on Sunday night), but it has reduced the latter’s volume.
JK Dobbins played 73% of the Chargers snaps last night, a jump from his 67% snap share in Week 10 when Gus Edwards returned from injury. He did have just a 58% running back rush share (was around 75% without Edwards) and a season low 3% target share.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 18, 2024
Dobbins only carried the ball 11 times last week. He remained efficient, averaging 5.09 yards per carry, putting his season average at 4.78. However, he really salvaged his day with two touchdowns, both of which were sort of unexpected.
This week may be a Dobbins/Edwards revenge game, but I don’t think they’ll be able to exact much revenge. At least not themselves.
The Ravens are the ultimate pass-funnel defense. They are the second-worst team against the pass but allow the eighth-fewest fantasy ppg to RBs. If Dobbins doesn’t find the end zone, I suspect he won’t reach double-digit fantasy points.
You may not be able to bench him but don’t expect a ceiling game this week.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears (vs. MIN)
It’s been a fantastic run over the past seven games for D’Andre Swift. After a dismal start to the season, Swift has averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game since Week 4. He’s also enjoyed one of the softest schedules of RB defenses.
Now that’s about to change.
Swift’s remaining schedule is one of the most difficult in the NFL, and it starts this week against a Vikings defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points on average to running backs.
With the Bears struggling offensively and likely to trail against the Vikings, Swift’s best shot at production would be as a pass catcher. Unfortunately, he hasn’t really been used much as a receiver recently, with a total of three receptions over his last two games. Meanwhile, the Vikings surrender a mere 12% of their total receiving yards allowed to running backs.
If Swift is unable to find the end zone, his line could look very similar to how it did two weeks ago against the Patriots: 16 carries, 59 yards, one catch, six yards, 7.5 fantasy points. That’s not very beneficial for fantasy managers.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. DEN)
Ever since Davante Adams was traded, Jakobi Meyers has been pretty effective as the Las Vegas Raiders’ WR1, averaging 14.8 fantasy ppg over his last three.
Last week, though, Meyers had his toughest test since the Adams trade. He only managed four receptions for 28 yards against a very good Miami Dolphins pass defense.
Now, Meyers has to contend with Pat Surtain II and the Broncos’ elite pass defense. Denver is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers and is second in the league in defensive EPA per dropback.
Meyers has a phenomenal closing schedule from Weeks 14-17, but this week, he’s best left on fantasy benches.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans (vs. TEN)
I would feel much better about fading Tank Dell knowing his production dipped after Nico Collins returned Monday night. Assuming that did happen (again, I am writing this before MNF), I feel more comfortable recommending to sit Dell.
Dell has been better without Collins in the lineup, but he’s still only averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game. That’s compared to a paltry 7.4 ppg in games with Collins on the field.
That’s reason enough to fade Dell. But the matchup also doesn’t help.
The Tennessee Titans allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Given the Houston Texans’ status as home favorites and the Titans being more beatable on the ground than through the air, this feels like a Joe Mixon game. When the Texans do throw, C.J. Stroud will look for Collins, leaving very little for Dell. Leave him out of lineups if you can.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at NYG)
Let me open by saying you don’t need to necessarily bench Cade Otton. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ starting tight end has been incredible over his last four games, averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game.
With that said, it’s worth noting that his worst outing (still a respectable 8.5 fantasy points) came just before the bye against the San Francisco 49ers, the best defense against tight ends he had faced.
This week, Otton gets the New York Giants, who allow the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. As if that isn’t enough of a concern, there’s also the likely return of Mike Evans.
Meanwhile, the Giants are starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback. This game may not be particularly competitive, allowing the Bucs to lean on Bucky Irving and the run game.
Otton is still a top-12 TE because of how good he’s been, but fantasy managers need to temper expectations this week.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers (vs. SF)
Whatever the opposite of point-chasing is, please don’t accuse me of it! This is about matchup. However, the fact that Tucker Kraft did not catch a pass on a single target last week certainly doesn’t hurt the sit recommendation.
I just mentioned how the 49ers were able to contain Otton. This defense has been very good against tight ends all year, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Just 18% of San Francisco’s total receiving yards allowed has gone to the TE position.
With Jordan Love not playing anywhere near his best football and Kraft’s role in the passing game seemingly having vanished, he’s very difficult to trust in fantasy lineups this week.