Fantasy managers are starting to feel the burn as we close in on the halfway mark of the fantasy regular season. Injuries have been piling up and that’s put stress on all our teams, but even worse are those players who aren’t producing despite being on the field. I’ve done this exercise with rookies, but now we’ll take a look at the veterans and higher draft picks and decide if the best course now is to practice patience, or panic.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (QB17)
In theory, having Kyler Murray on your team is supposed to be an exciting experience, even with its ups and downs. Thus far, it’s been underwhelming at best.
Just QB23 in points per game, Murray has been somewhat stable, but is now not providing the upside he was supposed to come with. In Superflex leagues, that makes him a reasonable QB2, but he was drafted to be a QB1. In single QB leagues, it’s tough to have drafted him at all and still need higher potential options.
His 15.6 points per game thus far would be the lowest output in his career, fewer than his rookie year or returning from an ACL injury in 2023. That’s despite his rushing attempts rising, averaging only less than his career-best 2020 season, where he ran for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns. In fact, most of his volume stats are in-line with his typical output.
The problem lies with scoring. His 20 passing and three rushing touchdown pace would both be career lows in the years he’s played most of the season. The Cardinals rank 23rd in scoring thus far, but 4th in points allowed. The identity of this team is not ideal for fantasy.
Now, we’re dealing with a foot injury that’s made Murray day-to-day, which could impact his rushing. That’s given him at least a reasonable floor. The worry has always been that he doesn’t have the passing stats to be a viable fantasy option without the rushing as well.
Concern for Murray right now is relatively high. Things don’t seem to be trending up for either him or the Cardinals. Their upcoming schedule is a mixed bag with a few ideal matchups, but they’re spread out through games against the Rams, Packers, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.
I’d recommend trading him now, just in case this foot issue becomes a bigger problem. You may miss out on the eventual spike week that’s coming, but he’ll very likely come back down to earth shortly after.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears (WR46)
It’s been a rocky career for Moore, but we’ve stuck it out with him because he’s shown great promise in bad situations. When he could put up career numbers with Justin Fields and Luke Getsy running the offense, it felt like he had officially arrived. So with year two of Caleb Williams and now Ben Johnson, there was some hype here.
Instead, he hasn’t been close to being a usable option outside of his game against Dallas, which still required a touchdown to salvage his performance. He’s currently on pace to finish the year with just 68 receptions and 735 yards.
For comparison, that’s very comparable to what Keenen Allen finished with on the Bears last year (70 receptions, 744 yards), which led us to believe he was washed. Alternatively, that’s the same number of catches Nico Collins had last season in just 12 games.
It sure did feel like a lot of Ben Johnson’s talk on body language and attitude this offseason was directed at Moore, whose effort has caught the eyes of fans. Rome Odunze has been the beneficiary, easily lapping Moore as the new WR1. Considering the team may like to get other pieces like Colston Loveland and Luther Burden involved, the shares of the pie may continue to shrink.
Unfortunately, there’s not much managers can do for now other than hold. Moore doesn’t have the presence to trade off on name value alone unless he’s part of a bigger offer. Your best bet is to hope the post-bye outlook improves quickly, or that he’s traded to a team that can spam him targets.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (WR38)
If it were known that the Chargers would suddenly become a pass-heavy offense under offensive coordinator Greg Roman, McConkey may have seen his stock skyrocket even further. I assumed Keenan Allen would’ve eaten into this work some, but something isn’t quite clicking for the Chargers.
Quentin Johnston’s breakout certainly hasn’t helped either. His 377 yards and four touchdowns led the team in a clear effort to create more explosives in the pass game. Even with a slightly crowded room, it doesn’t explain why McConkey’s usage has dropped so suddenly. One reception on six targets against the Giants in a loss alludes to a bigger issue.
2024 McConkey wasn’t exactly a workhorse, but his targets have actually been nearly the same, dropping from 7 to 6.8 per game. He didn’t dominate because he was getting fed, he was ultra efficient. Now his catch percentage has dropped from 73% to 61%, and his yards per route run from 2.59 to 1.11.
Surprisingly, this is less of a Chargers issue and a true sophomore slump. An uptick in passing rate and others stepping up haven’t benefited McConkey yet, even though he’s getting a similar workload. With the injuries to the RBs and offensive line, there’s a chance he may continue to get additional targets until he figures it out. It’ll help if defenses start to sag off him a little with increased gravity to Allen and Johnston.
This is a good buy-low if his manager can’t afford to wait much longer. Younger players tend to work through these slumps and return excellent results later. If you haven’t been killed by him yet and can afford to hang on, I’d do so. There’s a chance this slump lasts through the season, but I like the odds of a return to form.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (RB24)
Look, I don’t have to tell you you need to panic about Derrick Henry. It’s rough right now, especially considering the vindication managers felt after the Buffalo game to start the season. But, it’s been bad ever since, and not even regular bad; he’s been nearly unplayable.
Henry has not matched his week one production in the four games since that opener. In 46 attempts, he’s reached 148 yards and two touchdowns compared to his 169 yards and two touchdowns on just 18 attempts to start the season. That’s a pretty substantial fall off. Now Lamar Jackson is hurt too, which led to a paltry 2.2 yards per carry performance against Houston, salvaged only by a garbage-time touchdown.
Is there still hope on the horizon? Perhaps. Unfortunately, if you’re a Henry manager, you likely don’t have the time to wait for it, nor the flexibility to consider benching him. That’ll make him a great buy-low, but a sunk cost for his current team.
Of the last four games, three have been against top rushing defenses. Cleveland, Detroit, and Houston rank 1st, 7th, and 8th in rushing yards allowed. Against the weakest, Kansas City, Henry was on his way to a fine performance with 5.3 yards per attempt before the game got out of hand.
The biggest problem in the short term is that the Ravens have a few difficult matchups still (the Rams next week, then a bye), and without Lamar Jackson, they won’t be in a position to commit to the run. Long-term opportunities against the Bears, Dolphins, Jets, and Bengals with Jackson should get the run game back on track.
Henry remains a non-threat in the passing game, limiting any potential upside while the Ravens struggle. However, he is still getting all of the ground game work aside from Jackson. Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell only have 12 combined attempts to Henry’s 64. Henry should be an excellent buy-low following the Rams game.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (RB27)
In a strange turn of events, Alvin Kamara hasn’t had his role replaced, nor has he seemingly regressed. Instead, the offense around him has evolved and isn’t giving him scoring opportunities. This frustrating trend has knocked Kamara out of being at least an RB2, despite his main worries not having affected him yet.
Kamara is currently sitting at RB27 in half-PPR, and even lower at RB31 in points per game. This is fairly concerning, considering he’s 14th among RBs in total touches, averaging less than a full touch less than Ashton Jeanty and Jahmyr Gibbs.
His workload hasn’t evaporated, but scoring opportunities have. Kamara had 27 touches in week two against San Francisco, but only turned in 13 fantasy points without a touchdown. His lone score came in week one against Arizona, marking now four straight weeks without finding the endzone.
Kendre Miller is also starting to creep up slowly. His attempts and offensive snaps have all been increasing throughout the year, and he now finds himself in a clear RB2 role. Now there’s an ankle injury from practice. It’s not reported to be major, but any loss in effectiveness could zap his remaining efficiency.
This puts managers in a tricky spot. The New Orleans Saints have not been good, but they also haven’t been as outright horrible as many expected. They’re 1-4 and 27th in offensive points per game. They were competitive against the Buffalo Bills and handled the New York Giants, but they were blown out by the Seattle Seahawks.
Everything adds up to a fair level of panic. It’s not just one thing, but a series of issues that are holding Kamara back. I’m not high enough on the Saints offense to believe it’ll suddenly breakout, so manager’s best case for now would be to hold and hope for a trade at the deadline. That makes him a reasonable buy-low for RB desperate teams, but be cautious because there isn’t a clear path to relevance.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings (TE21)
It feels like we’ve been waiting a long time for Hockenson to come online as a truly elite player at his position. A former first-round draft pick, T.J. Hockenson did find his stride in 2022 and 2023 with a pair of top-5 finishes. In the Kevin O’Connell offense with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, he took in 900+ yards and five and six scores respectively, those seasons.
A knee injury to end that 2023 campaign affected him in 2024 as well, missing the first seven games of the year. His 8.7 fantasy points per game that season were his lowest since his rookie year. Five games into this year, he’s even lower at 8.1 fantasy points per game.
The reality of Hockenson is that even when he was a strong contributor, his ceiling wasn’t particularly high. A good player at a weak position, yes, but he wasn’t coming close to touching the production of the high-end talents who truly set themselves apart and gave managers a true advantage.
Now, he’s stuck in an offense that’s struggling at quarterback. Carson Wentz provided some stability, leading to Hockenson getting reasonable work with five to six targets a game. However, should J.J. McCarthy return to the lineup, it’ll likely doom Hockenson unless the young signal-caller improves rapidly. Just four catches and 27 yards in his first two games with McCarthy, he killed managers who thought they were getting a reliable option at tight end.
Hockenson’s ceiling isn’t elite, and McCarthy eliminates his floor. It’s worth keeping the talent around as long as Wentz is in the lineup, but it may be worth selling him for an upgrade or even just using his name as part of a trade package. The long-term outlook here is quite bleak, and panic should be high.
