The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Minnesota Vikings players heading into their matchup with the Detroit Lions to help you craft a winning lineup.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
Facing the Lions in Detroit is a tough reintroduction to the NFL, but that’s the situation J.J. McCarthy finds himself in as he’s progressed through the recovery process for his ankle injury.
Having two strong receivers and an offensive savant as the play caller is a good setup. Still, we saw Carson Wentz struggle to give us anything close to viable fantasy production, and while the bar is a little higher for this second-year QB, expecting him to make an impact in one-QB fantasy leagues isn’t wise.
McCarthy had one good quarter before getting hurt, so we need to see much more before considering investing.
That said, the pieces are in place, including the schedule Minnesota runs through the NFC East in Weeks 14-16 (Commanders, Cowboys, Giants), in what could be McCarthy’s best run this season, production-wise.
Will it be enough to hit your lineup? Probably not, but stashing him if we see signs of life this week and you’re without a Tier 1 signal-caller isn’t a crazy thought.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
Aaron Jones got the first carry last week in his return to action and has had a long week to prepare physically for this game, but this is a committee situation at best, and his recent profile looks more like a fall-forward back than one with any real upside.
Last 7 Games (Playoffs Included)
- 90.1% gain rate
- 4.2% 10+ yard gain rate
Getting past the line of scrimmage is a skill, and Jones still has that, but without much splash-play upside to speak of, splitting duties makes him a tough sell.
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Jordan Mason doesn’t provide much competition in the passing game, and that’s where your hope rests. I expect them to be playing from behind this week, and for that to be a common theme over the next two months, but again, you’re gambling on a player without access to a real ceiling.
If you’re stuck, there’s a path to an ugly 10 PPR points, but I’d rather not look anywhere on this roster for value outside of Justin Jefferson.
Jordan Mason, RB
This is shaping up to be our favorite, the good old “roster both, start neither” backfield.
Ugh.
Mason has seen his yards per carry gained after contact dip in three straight games, and Jones’ return last week certainly doesn’t help the trajectory.
You can use the game script as an excuse for last week (four carries for three yards), but two holes are begging to be poked in that argument.
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First, the downside of a player who is at risk of seeing his stat line wander into the abyss based solely on the scoreboard. Regardless of what you think of Jones (I think he’s on the downswing in a reasonably significant way), his role floor is higher than that of Mason due to versatility.
- Jones: Targeted 19% of his routes this season
- Mason: Targeted 10.5% of his routes this season
Second is the schedule. I don’t think there’s a debate to be had about Mason’s limitations, so the fact that Minnesota has yet to play Green Bay or Detroit and has games against Goff, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson is concerning.
Not every week is going to be as lopsided as last (37-10 loss), but the remaining schedule is an uphill battle, and that has Mason ranked outside of the flex tier for me.
Jordan Addison, WR
Jordan Addison scored on Thursday night in Los Angeles because that’s what he does. The former Trojan has now caught 21 touchdowns in 36 career games, a rate that feels unsustainable, but in labeling it as such, I’ve missed out on much of his fantasy production over the past year.
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Don’t get me wrong; his 13.3% target share from last week isn’t encouraging. That said, Minnesota’s quarterback play has been subpar for much of the season, and while I don’t think McCarthy channels his inner 2024 Sam Darnold, it does stand to reason that he improves with health and reps.
Addison may not do it in the same way every week, but he’s played four games this season, and he’s cleared 11.5 PPR points every time. There’s risk, but the upside largely mitigates it: The Addison equation, for me, results in him being a strong flex play weekly, even if this matchup isn’t great.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Jefferson has 10+ targets and a 35-yard grab in six straight games, and the NFL has no idea how to contain him.
“The NFL” includes the Vikings and their offensive struggles at times this season. The quarterback play has been below average, to say the least, and the running game spotty at best, but no matter the surrounding environment, Jefferson always seems to get his.
That’s what puts him in the overall WR1 discussion for me. I don’t think his ceiling is the same as some of the alpha pass-catchers out there — not as this roster currently stands, anyway — but the ability to overcome the situation and seemingly never let fantasy managers down is a skill reserved for the elite of the elite.
For his career, Jefferson is 37.5% more likely to give you 25+ PPR points than leave you with less than 10. That rate would be amazing if it were a stat for a star receiver split off only in games with a Hall of Fame QB.
That’s not the case. That’s for his entire career. A career that hasn’t exactly been filled with Hall of Fame-level targets.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
With each passing dud, the concerns grow.
T.J. Hockenson hasn’t reached 50 receiving yards in a game this season, hasn’t scored in over a month, and isn’t running downfield.
In essence, he’s checking zero boxes, and if his resume weren’t what it is, you probably would have cut bait weeks ago.
I’m holding for two more weeks. I don’t believe in rostering multiple tight ends, so by “holding,” I’m essentially saying you can get away with starting him, a concept that is uncomfortable at best.
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Why? It’s simple. He’s on the field a ton (81.3% of snaps, more than six percentage points above his career rate), a change under center is coming, and the Vikings are going to have to be very aggressive to keep up with the Lions and Ravens.
If he were a receiver and struggling at this level, I would call you crazy for even considering keeping him rostered. But he’s not. The tight end position plays by different rules, and even if you view him as a streamer, wouldn’t you be interested in streaming a TE that is expected to be a part of a pass-centric script in the coming weeks?