The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Minnesota Vikings players heading into their matchup with the Baltimore Ravens to help you craft a winning lineup.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
This is the definition of a prospect that is being thrown to the wolves and learning on the fly.
J.J. McCarthy returned from the ankle injury that had kept him sidelined since suffering the injury in Week 2 and looked great in executing the predetermined script before struggling on the way in.
It was the inverse of what we saw in his NFL debut, and these crazy swings are a part of the growth process for many QBs. In his two quarters of looking like a world beater, McCarthy has completed 11-of-15 passes for 155 yards and four touchdowns.
The ability to have spikes like that is encouraging. There are a half-dozen QBs on the streaming consciousness that haven’t flashed potential like that.
Having said that, he’s 27-of-51 for 289 yards and four interceptions in the other 10 quarters of his season.
In a perfect world, we would see the range of quarterly outcomes narrow over time this year, and McCarthy can execute the Kevin O’Connell system in 2023 the way Sam Darnold did last season.
He’s sitting atop my list of “evaluate and be patient” options. It’s not impossible for him to be used as a one-off option in a month or so (matchups with the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants await), but I’d be surprised if that’s the case.
I think you can do better this week if you’re looking to replace Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, or the ever-valuable Joe Flacco this weekend.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
I was both impressed and discouraged by what we saw from Aaron Jones last week in the upset win over the Lions.
On one hand, he proved that there is still gas in the tank. He picked up yardage on every carry against a formidable defense and was used in creative ways on the first drive.
There was a play where he lined up out wide, jabbed as if to give the impression that he was running a vertical route, came back for a bubble screen, and picked up 15 yards that led to a Justin Jefferson touchdown.
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Vintage Jones stuff and the type of thing he’ll have to do if we are going to flex him moving forward.
But there’s a volume issue here, and I don’t think that changes. Despite him holding the hot hand and the Vikings largely in control, Jones finished with 11 opportunities (carries plus targets). Jordan Mason struggled to get anything going in the right direction (37 yards on his 11 opportunities). McCarthy was a bad quarterback after the opening script ran out, and yet, Kevin O’Connell didn’t load up the veteran with work.
Against a rested Ravens defense that is getting healthier, is a 15-touch ceiling going to cut it?
Is his touch ceiling even that high?
I want Jones over Mason in a game like this where the expectation is that Minnesota is playing from behind, but at some level, that might be shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. Jones sits just outside of my top 24 at the position this week, while Mason is half a dozen spots lower.
Jordan Mason, RB
We thought that the same script in Detroit would work against Jordan Mason, thus making him a tough sell given his role projection as the two-down option in Minnesota.
The analysis was dead wrong, but the final line ultimately rewarded our skepticism.
The Lions didn’t lead for a single offensive snap, yet Jones nearly tripled Mason’s production. Heading into Week 9, I didn’t see a situation in which the Vikes were locked into a tight game and Jones’ point total would dwarf that of the more explosive Mason, but here we are.
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I don’t think you can play either one of them.
This projects to be a full-blown committee where one player has upside and the other has versatility. Combined, this would be a top-12 running back. Separately, I’m not touching it, as a low floor presents itself for both players.
Jordan Addison, WR
In his first action with McCarthy, Jordan Addison’s usage was … something.
He cleared 100 air yards on his four targets. That’s a rare occurrence, and with every one of those looks coming at least 17 yards downfield, there is certainly some risk of him being pigeonholed in a way that rendered Jameson Williams and Alec Pierce into awfully volatile roles earlier this season.
That’s not a terrible thing, but I don’t think that’s optimal for Addison managers, as the hope was he’d develop into a reliable weekly flex option.
It’s one game, a sample of four targets and 29 routes. That’s not nearly enough to make any sweeping claims, but it’s the only data point we have to go on right now, and it very much has my attention.
McCarthy has been sporadic at best in the three games we’ve seen from him as a pro (two highly productive quarters have elevated his counting numbers). If Addison managers are trying to parlay low-percentage targets with a QB who is all over the place, that’s not a bet that has my interest.
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We will see. He slots in as a low-end flex in this spot, with the hope being that a high-scoring environment puts him in a good spot to land a big play.
I’m hopeful that we’ll see some route versatility this week, and we can resume assuming that Addison is a strong flex moving forward. But I’m nervous, and I think you should be too if you thought you had a rock-solid option.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Justin Jefferson has now scored in two of three J.J. McCarthy starts and none of the six in which the second-year QB spent rehabbing his ankle.
He’s as good as it gets; it really is that simple. His one-handed 10-yard TD catch on the first drive last week in Detroit was a reminder of that, and as his QB gains professional experience, I expect Jefferson’s star to shine even brighter.
The Vikings close the fantasy season with games against the Commanders, Cowboys, Giants, and Lions, all of whom Jefferson is more than capable of dominating. He was your first-round pick for a reason, and I think it’s very possible that the best is yet to come for #18 this season.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
T.J. Hockenson scoring a revenge TD last week, his first trip to the end zone since Week 3, was great to see, but I’m not at all certain that he’s a weekly starter.
In J.J. McCarthy’s return to action, Hockenson earned just a 13% target share. Unless you think that this offense is going to make a massive step forward in terms of efficiency moving forward, that rate of involvement is more in line with a streamer at the position than anything else.
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We know Justin Jefferson is an All-World talent and that Jordan Addison brings a level of upside that is otherwise lacking from this offense. But with McCarthy icing the game with a trust pass to Jalen Nailor, not to mention Jones’ ability to be split out wide, I think we are fighting an uphill battle.
This game could be a shootout, and so could next week’s home date with the Bears. If Minnesota finds itself in track meets, Hockenson can flirt with TE1 status if for no other reason than the high count in red zone trips.
But after that are games against the Packers and Seahawks, spots where it’s possible, if not likely, that this offense will be quiet.
There aren’t many instances where I’d hold two tight ends on my roster, but if you wanted to marry Hockenson’s schedule with a Luke Musgrave or other streaming option and play the matchup game, I’d give you the green light, provided that your depth is stable elsewhere.
