After decades of tight ends not being fantasy football factors as rookies, we’ve gotten Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers in back-to-back years. Tyler Warren is another talented prospect with early first-round NFL Draft capital. With no competition at the tight end position, could the Indianapolis Colts’ tight end emerge into a fantasy TE1 as a rookie?
Tyler Warren Fantasy Outlook
It can be difficult for rookie tight ends to step into immediate relevant roles. Typically, they are competing with a low-level veteran who isn’t a tough player to overtake but is there nonetheless. That’s not the case with Warren.
The Colts had no tight end of consequence last season. They used a rotation of guys that probably should never see meaningful snaps in an NFL game, including Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Andrew Ogletree, and Will Mallory. The Colts spent a premium pick on Warren because they want a true TE1.
Talent commands targets. Fantasy managers may look at the entirety of the Colts’ tight ends earning just a 15.2% target share last season and worry. If Warren is talented enough, he can earn a target share north of 20%. Now, to be clear, I’m not saying he will. Instead, how the Colts used their UFL-caliber tight ends last season is not predictive of how they might use Warren.
The primary concern with Warren will be how significant his passing game role is. Blocking is a large part of what tight ends do. We need Warren out there running routes.
All of Penn State TE Tyler Warren’s 15+ yard receptions last season
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) April 16, 2025
It’s been a long time since the Colts have had a tight end even worth drafting in fantasy. The last time there was a Colts tight end worth drafting and starting in fantasy, Andrew Luck was the starting quarterback. Luck retired before the 2019 season.
Warren will be catching passes from Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson. We should expect both to make starts this season. For fantasy purposes, we much prefer Jones, who is far more capable of getting the ball accurately into the hands of his pass catchers.
For Warren to return value, he has to average at least 10.0 fantasy points per game. That is replacement-level production at the tight end position. Each season, eight-10 tight ends usually produce within a point or two of 10 PPG.
Warren’s average draft position (ADP) is currently TE12. Interestingly, he’s ahead of fellow rookie tight end Colston Loveland, who was drafted earlier and has a better offensive situation. The reasoning is almost certainly that Loveland has far more target competition. Warren has a clear path to being the third option in the Colts’ passing game behind Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs.
Unfortunately, I can’t get behind the rookie. I have Warren ranked as my TE12, which aligns with the consensus. Whether you draft Warren depends entirely on how much he ends up costing. We know he’s the TE12, but that could be a ninth-round pick or a 12th-round pick.
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The reality is that the number of difference-making tight ends each season is very small, usually only four to five. Therefore, if I’m not getting one, I want to be one of the last to draft a tight end.
If Warren ends up being that guy, that’s perfectly fine. He’s in that range of about 10-12 tight ends who could be viable starters, producing at a streamer-level rate. Sure, Warren has the talent to ascend beyond that. But I am not confident enough in him to pay a premium to chase that. Someone is always going to like Warren more than me.
Dan Fornek’s Tyler Warren Projection
Tyler Warren was a modest producer during his time at Penn State, but he emerged as one of the unique weapons at tight end in his final season. From 2020 to 2023, Warren caught just 49 passes for 606 yards and 11 touchdowns. In 2024 alone, he caught 104 passes for 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns. The team even got him involved in the run game, leading to 26 carries for 218 yards and four rushing scores.
The Colts had been searching for a dynamic tight end on their roster for years, which made selecting Warren in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft a no-brainer. Indianapolis’s wide receiver room has plenty of highly drafted talent. Still, there are significant questions about whether either of their quarterbacks (Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson) can effectively deliver the football.
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Warren has quickly emerged as the focal point of the passing attack, consistently making plays down the field. His sure-handedness and ability to win quickly in the passing game should be enough to offset any challenges that he faces from subpar quarterback play. There is also a chance he could factor in as a goal-line rusher in situations as well, boosting his touchdown upside.
Over the last two seasons, we have seen rookie tight ends break out in fantasy to secure top-three scoring finishes. That outcome is very realistic for Warren in his first season as well.
