Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride was a non-factor as a rookie, which often turns fantasy football managers off in the modern world of immediate gratification. As a sophomore, McBride broke out over the next half, establishing himself as the next great tight end. He became an elite tight end in year three. Should fantasy managers spend an early-round selection on him in 2025?
Trey McBride Fantasy Outlook
McBride didn’t hit the ground running like Sam LaPorta or Brock Bowers. He followed the traditional tight end path, beginning with irrelevance as a rookie. As a sophomore, McBride started the same way, barely playing and not really mattering. Then, over the second half of his second season, he became a full-time player, and it was glorious.
McBride further improved in his third season, the first time he entered a year as the clear TE1. He averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game and finished as the overall TE2.
Even though the Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison Jr., McBride remained Kyler Murray’s favorite target. The talented tight end led the position with a 29.3% target share and was targeted on 31.1% of his routes run, third in the league. He averaged 2.42 yards per route run despite leading the league in route participation rate and having a mere 6.1 aDOT, 21st in the league. McBride was elite.
Trey McBride:
> Highest first-read target share by a TE in Fantasy Points Data history (34.8%)
> Outperformed the 4th overall pick in YPRR, 1D/RR, YPTOE, FPG, and every other stat you can think of
> Actually got better average separation on some downfield routes https://t.co/q2ovfmLTpR pic.twitter.com/RDAYiFIK6S
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) April 3, 2025
We have every reason to expect similarly excellent production in 2025. However, it will come with an increase in cost.
McBride’s ADP is now TE2, behind only Brock Bowers. If you want the Cardinals’ TE, you must take him no later than the first half of the third round. That’s an expensive price to pay for a tight end and one that, historically, has not been worth it.
Given how few tight ends are true difference-makers, the degree to which fantasy managers can wait and get replacement-level production is greater than any other position. You can take a passable 10 PPG TE in the last round or stream the position. Therefore, if you pay a premium for a tight end, he has to give you a significant edge.
McBride posting high WR2-level numbers as a late-fourth/early-fifth-round selection was very much worth it in 2024. He won’t be worth his price this year if he merely repeats that production. We need further improvement.
On the one hand, asking McBride to do better than 15.6 PPG seems like a lot. On the other hand, he actually should’ve been better last year.
McBride caught 111 passes for 1,146 yards. Yet, he only scored two touchdowns. In fact, it was a running gag all season. McBride didn’t score until Week 17. He recorded seven games of 14+ fantasy points without catching a touchdown in any of them.
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Based on his yardage total, McBride should’ve scored around eight times. Let’s say McBride has a similar season, but scores as much as he should (but not anymore). He would average around 17.1 PPG. We would sign for 17 PPG from any non-quarterback we might take around the 2/3 turn.
I have McBride ranked as my TE2. Whether I take him depends heavily on my feelings about the available WRs and RBs. There is nothing wrong with taking McBride at his ADP to offer advice on what to do. It will come down to draft philosophy and how you are building your roster.
Dan Fornek’s Trey McBride Projection
McBride failed to meet expectations as a rookie, buried behind Zach Ertz on the depth chart in 2022. He improved significantly in 2023 but took his game to an entirely new level in 2024.
McBride was the TE2 in PPR points per game last season, averaging 15.6 points while operating as the primary read in Arizona’s passing attack. McBride finished second among tight ends in targets (147), first in target share (29.3%), third in target rate (31.1%), and first in air yards share (25.3%). McBride could have had an even better season if he had converted more of his end zone targets (9) into touchdowns (1), but a lot of that was misses by Murray in a condensed area of the field.
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Looking to 2025, there is no reason to believe that McBride won’t reprise his role as the focal point of Arizona’s passing attack. The team returns all of its skill players, and the offensive system historically runs through the tight end position. McBride was fifth among all pass catchers in first-read target rate (33.6%) last season. That was 6% more than the next closest player on the Cardinals (Harrison).
McBride had terrible touchdown luck in 2024, but that is rarely a sticky stat year over year. If he gets positive regression in that part of his game and keeps his role as the first read in passing progressions, he could easily finish as the TE1 overall. He’s a worthy third-round pick in fantasy this season. Â
