Trevor Lawrence has had stretches of QB1 performances but has never been a reliable fantasy football starter. Now with a new coaching staff and with two actual weapons at wide receiver, it’s time for the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback to make the leap or for the NFL world to accept he’s just not that good. Should fantasy managers view Lawrence as a worthwhile late-round QB dart throw?
Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Outlook
The power of draft capital is amazing in the NFL. Since Lawrence was supposed to be an Andrew Luck-level prospect (he never was even close to as good) and went No. 1 overall, he continues to get chances to prove he’s more than a low-end NFL starter/high-end backup.
Meanwhile, a guy like Daniel Jones got benched last season and is fighting for a starting job this year.
Both QBs also have 1 playoff win 👀 pic.twitter.com/GvluhSVQfX
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) May 21, 2025
I’ve never been a fan of Jones, and I did not believe he was an NFL-caliber starting quarterback coming out of college. But why is he fighting for a job, while Lawrence is an unquestioned starter?
You may be thinking, “Who cares? This is fantasy football.” And you’d be correct. Tim Tebow is the worst passer in the history of the NFL. Yet, he was not only fantasy relevant, but an every-week QB1 during his miracle stretch in 2011. Anthony Richardson, the one battling Jones for the Colts’ starting job, will be a must-start QB1 every game he starts. But he may not even be an NFL-caliber backup. Fantasy is not reality. But it’s not like Lawrence has been this great fantasy QB, either.
Lawrence has made 60 career starts and has averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game. That’s fewer than Jones over his first 60 career starts, by the way.
In 2022 and 2023, Lawrence gave fantasy managers borderline QB1 seasons, averaging 17.9 and 17.3 PPG. There have been flashes. Lawrence recorded six games of 20+ fantasy points in 2022, four in 2023, and three in 2024.
How has Lawrence not been able to put these strong outings together more consistently? One reason that gets thrown around constantly is coaching.
To be fair, Lawrence has dealt with some very poor coaching. In his rookie season, he had the worst head coach in NFL history, Urban Meyer. After that, he dealt with Doug Pederson, who seems to have let the game pass him by. There is optimism that Liam Coen, a big factor in Baker Mayfield’s turnaround in Tampa Bay, will be able to do something similar for Lawrence, who is still just 26 years old.
There are no more excuses. Lawrence is equipped with one of the best young WRs in the NFL in Brian Thomas Jr. The team added a true WR2 in Travis Hunter in this year’s NFL Draft. If Lawrence has another year where he averages 15.2 PPG with a 60.06% completion percentage and a 1.57 TD/INT ratio, he won’t be a starting quarterback in 2026.
The good news for fantasy managers is that the price has finally dropped. Progression was baked into Lawrence’s ADP each of the past three seasons. Not anymore. He’s way down at QB26. If he does figure it out this year, it will not have cost fantasy managers anything to find out.
Investing in Lawrence comes down to believing in his talent and the coaching staff. Do you think a top-10 NFL quarterback is in there? Do you think the guy who has posted several QB1 weeks in the past can do so more consistently this year?
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As you may have gathered based on the tone of this article, I do not. I have Lawrence ranked as my QB22. I have him behind guys like JJ McCarthy, Bryce Young, and Michael Penix Jr.
We don’t have verdicts on those three quarterbacks (among others). However, after four years, I believe we do know who Lawrence is.
I know the parallel to Mayfield will be there. We thought we knew who Mayfield was as well. However, he dealt with various injuries earlier in his career and lost the opportunity to be an unquestioned starting quarterback after his fourth season.
This is Lawrence’s last chance. He may break out and become a weekly QB1, but if that happens, it won’t be on any of my rosters.
Frank Ammirante’s Trevor Lawrence Projection
Trevor Lawrence missed significant time for the first time in his NFL career in 2024, playing just nine full games and undergoing shoulder surgery in December. The quarterback is expected to be fully healthy for Week 1, though, and he should be immediately fantasy relevant, especially in Superflex.
From Weeks 1-9, Lawrence was the QB15 in fantasy points per game, and should be able to pick up where he left off in September. Liam Coen’s arrival in Jacksonville should get the offense humming after the Jaguars scored the seventh-fewest points (320) in the league last year. The former Buccaneers OC will be judged on how much he can get out of Lawrence, who promised so much coming out of college.
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Hybrid WR/DB rookie Travis Hunter is another intriguing offseason move that should positively impact Lawrence’s fantasy output. Not only is Hunter a safe pair of hands, but like WR Brian Thomas Jr. on the other side, he has the acceleration to turn short completions into explosive gains.
The losses of WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram, the two most-targeted players of Lawrence’s time in Jacksonville, will shake things up, but that might be just what he needs.
The quarterback maintains his low-end QB1 ceiling, but is more likely to end up with middle-to-high-end QB2 numbers.
