Travis Etienne Jr.’s fantasy stock continues to plummet as users flee en masse, making him the fourth-most-traded-away player in July with 481 transactions, according to PFSN’s Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer.
The Jacksonville running back’s alarming decline from promising sophomore to fantasy liability tells a cautionary tale about efficiency regression and diminishing opportunity.
The Numbers Paint a Grim Picture for Travis Etienne
Etienne’s 2024 campaign was nothing short of disastrous from an efficiency standpoint. His 3.7 yards per carry represented a career low, made even more concerning because none of his 150 carries exceeded 22 yards.
What makes this regression particularly puzzling is that Etienne faced the most favorable running conditions of his young career. His percentage of carries against loaded boxes (eight or more defenders in the box) dropped to a career low rate in 2024, theoretically creating easier running lanes.
Yet instead of capitalizing on these lighter fronts, Etienne’s production cratered.
The most talented running back on the Jacksonville Jaguars is no doubt Travis Etienne…
If Liam Coen uses him to his strengths he could be one of the biggest values in startups.
He’s a dynamic player, use him in space and off tackle and he will thrive. pic.twitter.com/y1ThlLXLeC
— Snoog’s Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) June 17, 2025
The advanced metrics tell an even bleaker story. Among 46 qualified running backs with at least 100 carries, Etienne ranked 45th in fantasy production relative to expectations. His actual fantasy output reached only 79.1% of his projected points based on usage and game situations: only Nick Chubb, who battled back from a devastating knee injury, performed worse at 78.4%.
Draft Capital Signals Organizational Concerns
Jacksonville’s front office apparently shares concerns about Etienne’s trajectory. The Jaguars used their fourth-round pick in April’s Draft to select Virginia Tech’s running back Bhayshul Tuten, a clear signal that the organization lacks confidence in their former second-round investment.
This is on top of the team using a third-round pick to draft Tank Bigsby in 2023. Bigsby saw an increased role in the Jaguars’ offense last season, leading the team in carries (168), rushing yards (766), and touchdowns (seven).
Tuten brings a different skill set to Jacksonville’s backfield. At 5’11” and 215 pounds, he profiles as a between-the-tackles runner who could complement or potentially supplant what is left of Etienne’s role. The rookie’s college production featured consistent chunk gains and reliable short-yardage conversion, areas where Etienne struggled mightily last season.
Teams typically don’t invest significant draft capital at running back when they’re satisfied with their starter, especially after just three seasons. Jacksonville’s willingness to add another young back suggests they view Etienne as part of the problem rather than the solution.
Fantasy Implications Moving Forward
Fantasy managers are clearly taking notice of these warning signs. The exodus from Etienne reflects a broader understanding that his 2024 struggles weren’t merely bad luck or poor blocking. When a player fails to capitalize on favorable conditions and loses organizational support, the writing is often on the wall.
Etienne’s current average draft position likely still reflects his past potential rather than his present reality. Fantasy managers are treating him as a significant risk in 2025 drafts, understanding that his floor has dropped considerably while his ceiling remains capped by both his own limitations and increased competition.
The lack of explosive plays particularly concerns seasoned fantasy players. Running backs who can’t break off chunk gains become entirely dependent on volume and touchdown variance. With Tuten now in the mix, Etienne’s path to fantasy relevance has narrowed dramatically.
The Broader Lesson
Etienne’s fall from grace reminds us that draft pedigree and early career flashes don’t guarantee sustained success. Although his sophomore season showed promise, the NFL is ultimately about consistent production and adaptation.
When efficiency metrics decline across multiple categories, it typically signals fundamental issues that don’t resolve themselves.
Fantasy football rewards those who can identify these trends before they become consensus. The PFSN trade data suggests that managers are already moving on from Etienne at cose, recognizing that his combination of declining efficiency, organizational doubt, and increased competition creates too many red flags to ignore.
