The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Houston Texans players heading into their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers to help you craft a winning lineup.
C.J. Stroud, QB
He doesn’t have a chance.
I’m not saying C.J. Stroud has been great this season, but I’m not sure what realistic expectations are given this offensive line’s struggles.
Stroud shone as a rookie, and guess what? His completion percentage when not pressured has actually increased every season of his career. His 6% TD rate when not pressured is pacing for a career high, while his 0.7% INT% in such spots would be the lowest of his career.
If you want to tell me that the great QBs overcome things like this, I’ll agree with you. But this talk that Stroud is a flop is a bit over the top for me.
At this point, you can’t go this direction, and I wish I could tell you that we will see things change at some point moving forward this season, but I can’t. He hasn’t reached 235 passing yards in a game this season, and without offensive balance, his throwing multiple touchdown passes once a month or so tracks.
I’ve liked what I’ve seen in terms of his rushing production (20+ yards in five of six games), but he’s running for his life rather than as part of a thoughtful effort to move the ball downfield.
I can see a situation where this offensive line improves, and I’m in on Stroud at a significant discount this summer, but asking him to put up numbers in this current situation isn’t wise.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 8 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Woody Marks, RB
Turn on the Texans for five minutes and it’ll be clear.
Woody Marks hits the holes like someone is chasing him, while Chubb approaches the line of scrimmage with extreme caution.
There’s a world in which the Le’Veon Bell approach works, but it’s not the world this iteration of Chubb lives i,n and thus, the Texans are starting to pivot.
The rookie out-snapped Chubb 42-18 in the ugly Monday night game against the Seahawks, more than doubling his route and touch count in the process. He carried 10 times for 15 yards.
My confidence in a bona fide talent like Nico Collins is fading in this offense, so sorry if I can’t get excited about Marks. His role development is good to see, but all 15 of those yards last week came after contact, and it looks like the Texans are playing down a man on every snap when it comes to attempting to block the opposition.
I thought, despite all of the injuries, that the 49ers’ defense showed well for itself against the Falcons last week, and while they’ve allowed a running back to clear 17.5 PPR points in four straight games, I’m not comfortable starting Marks unless my hand is very much forced.
I clearly prefer him to Chubb, but I’m playing Allgeier (vs. MIA) over him, even with a lower touch projection.
Jayden Higgins, WR
Jayden Higgins profiles more as Collins’ insurance than Christian Kirk, so it wasn’t surprising to see him not see a massive role change to open last week’s loss to the Seahawks with the slot weapon sidelined (hamstring).
He’s earned 13 targets this season and really hasn’t proven himself to the Texans, let alone fantasy managers. That said, Collins (concussion) did exit early on Monday night and the 49ers are one of four defenses yet to intercept a deep pass.
They also rank 20th on completion percentage when it comes to those chunk plays, making Higgins an interesting desperation dart throw in a week where you may be required to take such a shot.
That’s if Collins is sidelined. If he plays, that’s where those shot passes are going, and you can find better lottery tickets to scratch.
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
Dalton Schultz, TE
Stroud sees 30.6% of his pass attempts come when under pressure, and a large portion of the remaining attempts are rushed due to the threat of the iffy offensive line collapsing in short order.
For the Texans, that’s not great, but for the value of their tight end, it works. Dalton Schultz has tallied four straight games with at least five grabs, putting him on a list with only Jake Ferguson and Trey McBride when it comes to TEs to have accomplished that this season.
He’s not a real threat to post a big number in any one given week because of what he is asked to do. As a function of this offense, just 2.7% of his targets come 15+ yards downfield, the lowest rate among the 21 tight ends with at least 30 targets (NFL average: 11.7%).
Thanks to that role, I think you’re safe to start Schultz weekly and position the rest of your lineup to decide your fate.
