There are two key offseason events that shape the landscape of each NFL season. The first of those events is free agency. With the bulk of the relevant players having already signed, it’s time to break it all down. Here are the most important takeaways for fantasy football managers.
Free Agency Fantasy Football Fallout
Who doesn’t love some nice alliteration in a header? We saw a medley of players ink new deals during the second week of March. Every signing matters and impacts fantasy value.
Whether it was a player staying put, a surprisingly large contract, or a team that might have made a big move making a small one, it all serves to build the foundation of the 2026 fantasy football sandbox. These are the things that stood out to me the most.
Malik Willis To the Dolphins Only Benefits Malik Willis
At one point, Malik Willis was projected to go No. 2 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. It’s great to see how he’s bounced back from a somewhat unexpected draft day slide. He deserves a shot to be a starter.
After leaving Tennessee in 2024, Willis made three starts during his two years in Green Bay. In those starts, he’s posted games of 13.0, 25.4, and 31.5 fantasy points. Most importantly, he’s rushed for 174 yards across those contests.
There’s obviously a risk Willis doesn’t start the entire season. However, as long as he is out there, he should be viewed as a top 12 fantasy quarterback.
Unfortunately, Willis is not going to help Jaylen Waddle or De’Von Achane. In fact, he’s going to hurt them.
Waddle, but more specifically, Achane, benefited from Tua Tagovailoa’s lack of mobility and designed targets. Willis has never attempted more than 23 passes in a game. He will average more than that this season, but nowhere near the 31 attempts per game Tagovailoa averaged.
Achane remains an RB1, but both the floor and ceiling he displayed last year need to be lowered a bit.
Kenneth Walker III Will Be Overvalued
I really hate the terms “overvalued” and “overrated.” Not because there’s anything wrong with them. Rather, people seem to struggle with interpretation. Just because a player is overvalued or overrated does not make that player bad.
Kenneth Walker III is not bad. He is not bad at football. He is not going to be a bad fantasy running back. I do believe he will be overvalued, though.
Walker’s fantasy points per game by season:
- 13.5
- 13.3
- 16.5
- 13.3
One of these things is not like the other.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that Walker will only average 13-14 PPG this season. He can get to 16-17 PPG. He averaged 24.9 PPG in the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run. Of course, that also came with a Zach Charbonnet injury in the first half of their first playoff game.
Fantasy managers are loving the landing spot in Kansas City, and rightfully so. The Chiefs have not had a truly talented RB1 since Kareem Hunt’s first stint with the team.
The problem is that early indicators suggest Walker’s price in drafts will surge into the early second round. I’ve seen some analysts on Twitter suggest he could be as high as the overall RB5. I can’t get there.
During his entire coaching career, Andy Reid has never used a true three-down back. The guy playing on third downs in obvious passing situations has always been someone other than the first and second down guy.
Walker saw a 7.9% target share last season, the third time in his four NFL seasons that his target share has been below 8.0%. He also ceded goal-line work to Charbonnet last year. Are we sure the Chiefs won’t give someone else the short-yardage role?
Plus, we have concerns with Patrick Mahomes’ health. Will he be ready for Week 1? When will he be Mahomes again? And it’s not like this offense was firing on all cylinders when everyone was healthy last season.
Walker will be good. He will almost certainly be better than last year. He may even post RB1 numbers. But I don’t see a path to 20 PPG, and any running back going in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts needs to have that upside.
Mike Evans Will Be One of the Most Polarizing Players of 2026
Mike Evans will be 33 years old in August and is coming off the worst season of his career. Yes, injuries played a huge role. While I do not believe in the ability to predict injury, we know definitively that older players are more likely to get hurt and need longer to recover. It should not come as a total shock that Evans’ most injured season came at age 32.
Prior to last season, Evans had never averaged fewer than 13.2 PPG. He’d posted 15.0+ PPG for seven straight seasons, never missing more than four games. After 10.6 PPG last season, a career worst 1.62 yards per route run, and the track record of aging WRs changing teams, it’s easy to write Evans off.
On the flip side, Evans posted a career high 27.6% targets per route run rate. He looked like his usual self in Week 15, ripping off 132 yards on 6 receptions. And he fits perfectly in Kyle Shanahan’s offense as that outside clasher.
If Evans isn’t done, he could be a great value. But history says when aging WRs who show signs of decline change teams, it typically doesn’t go well. It will be interesting to see the conflicting thoughts as we get closer to draft season.
J.K. Dobbins Should Be Ranked Ahead Of RJ Harvey
Sean Payton has made it abundantly clear how he views RJ Harvey. This is not meant to blast Harvey or call him a bad player. He’s not. He has a role…but that’s all he has, and all he will ever have (at least with the Broncos).
Denver overdrafted Harvey in the second round, and everyone, including yours truly, rushed to push Harvey up fantasy draft boards. J.K. Dobbins was largely viewed as an afterthought.
As the season got closer, I became more interested in Dobbins, but more as an early-season guy who could be a bridge in Hero RB builds to finding a real RB2 later.
Dobbins wound up getting hurt after just 10 games, pushing Harvey into the RB1 role by force. But before that, Dobbins dominated carries, averaging 15.3 per game.
We should view this backfield as exactly how it played out in 2025. Dobbins will be the early down and goal-line back. Harvey will see a handful of carries each game and catch more passes.
If Harvey couldn’t completely break free of Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie after Dobbins went down, he’s not about to overtake a healthy Dobbins.
Alvin Kamara Is Done
Undoubtedly one of the best fantasy running backs of the modern era from the best running back class in NFL history, the sun has set on Alvin Kamara’s career.
From 2017-2024, Kamara averaged at least 17.8 PPG in all but one season, a still respectable 14.1 PPG in 2022. He posted six top-five finishes throughout his career.
Last year, Kamara averaged a career low of 3.6 yards per carry. He saw a career low 10.5% target share. He averaged a career-worst 9.2 PPG. He also posted career lows in several other metrics.
Kamara is now 31 years old. The Saints gave Travis Etienne Jr. four years at $52 million. Just about every backfield is a committee now, but Etienne is not there to split evenly with Kamara. He’s there to be the lead back.
It would not be surprising at all if the Saints released Kamara before the season started. At best, he will be the satellite back with the smallest role of his career.
Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs Should Be The First Two Picks In Every Fantasy Draft
Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were already elite fantasy assets. Both of them have posted consecutive seasons with 20+ PPG. They’re both excellent receivers and efficient runners. If their situations remained the same, they were locked in as the top two running backs in fantasy. Now, they should unquestionably be the top two picks ahead of every wide receiver.
Tyler Allgeier and David Montgomery were both mostly backups last season. But they did steal some carries and touchdowns. Each of them is now on a different team.
The Falcons have yet to find their RB2. Someone will take a series or two from Robinson each week, but it’s hard to imagine he won’t have the same role as last year. Robinson averaged 21.8 PPG with only 11 touchdowns. He absolutely has the potential to score 20 times. Nine more scores last year would’ve put him at 24.4 PPG.
Gibbs had a 20 TD season in 2024. He got to 18 last year. Both seasons occurred despite Montgomery stealing 20 total bases over those two years. Somehow, even after scoring 18 times, it feels like Gibbs has untapped potential.
In six career games without Montgomery, Gibbs has averaged 27.4 PPG. The Lions are recommitting to being dominant on the ground, and this year’s offense will run through Gibbs. Isiah Pacheco will see the field as the Montgomery replacement, but he is not even half as talented as Montgomery. I would be stunned if Pacheco saw goal-line work at the level of Montgomery. Gibbs has the highest ceiling in all of fantasy football.
Fade Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving was a pleasant surprise as a rookie, overtaking the woefully inefficient Rachaad White and emerging as a weekly RB1. His sophomore season was off to a strong start before foot and shoulder injuries sidelined him for around two months. When Irving returned, nothing was the same.
Irving became the worst running back archetype in fantasy. He was a two-down back who didn’t catch passes and didn’t see goal-line work.
The Bucs consistently pulled Irving on third downs for White, and Irving saw exactly one carry from inside the five-yard line all season. It came in his first game back from injury. He scored a one-yard touchdown that was erased due to holding. Officially, he didn’t register a single goal-line carry.
Tampa Bay let White walk, but replaced him with Kenneth Gainwell, a guy who saw a 16.3% target share last season. He’s going to be the receiving back.
After initial reports indicated the Bucs wouldn’t bring back Sean Tucker, they gave him a $3.52 million ERFA tender. There’s no way anyone matches that. It strongly suggests the Bucs want Tucker back in his role from last season. Simply put, how is Irving going to score fantasy points?
