The NFL season ends on Sunday. We get to crown a champion, and that’s the name of the game, but that means we are preparing for eight months without games that matter, and there’s a level of sadness that comes with that.
The upcoming hiatus can be made a little easier should we call our shot during the Super Bowl correctly: how does the big game figure to play out?
Let’s dive in.
Super Bowl LX DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings
For me, the first part of this process is trying to get an understanding of what the public is most likely to do.
Well, we know that Seattle is favored to win and that the spread jumped up a point shortly after opening. New England has been the team of a generation, but in the scope of the 2025 season, it’s clear that prevailing wisdom sides with the other team on Super Sunday.
And I think that’s probably right.
But what if it’s not?
My hunch is that most people who believe that the Seahawks win start with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in their captain slot and go from there. On the heels of a 10-153-1 performance against the Rams, who can blame them?
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I think there are three viable captain plays, two of which garner plenty of attention. The JSN script writes itself (the best player on the favored team), and the Drake Maye narrative isn’t far behind that as an MVP finalist who could be playing catch up.
That leaves us room for leverage on the third by telling a unique, but viable, story.
CPT: Sam Darnold
Flex: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Flex: AJ Barner
Flex: Rhamondre Stevenson
Flex: Mack Hollins
Flex: New England Patriots
Why Rostering Sam Darnold As Captain Could Pay Off
Hear me out: maybe the favorite doesn’t win.
Underdogs have a winning record in the Super Bowl in the 2000s and have won nine of the past 14 (three straight).
Hear me out: maybe Maye is second-year Tom Brady, not the Hall of Famer version.
In Brady’s first Super Bowl, his lead back had more carries than he had completions, and the team kind of milked a 14-3 halftime lead as long as they could.
What if THAT happens.
I don’t think it’s off the board, but I do very much think that very few are building a roster to account for such an outcome. In that universe, we are looking at a pass-heavy opponent (the Rams lost to the Patriots back in ’01, and they finished with twice as many passes as rushes) and just enough production through the air to support maybe one receiver while the RB1 carries the primary responsibilities.
OK, I can work with that.
The Mack Hollins Connection to Super Bowl XXXVI
In the aforementioned Brady example, the lone touchdown pass for New England went to a player who spent time in Upstate New York, was coming off of a sub-40-catch season despite reasonable health, and was in his first season with the team (David Patten). Does Mack Hollins not check those boxes?
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If narrative street isn’t for you, can I interest you in a 60.9% snap share in his return from injury, a rate that checked in above his regular-season average and resulted in Kayshon Boutte’s role being trimmed in a significant way (82.8% against the Texans, down to 62.5% in the championship game).
If a Hollins splash play can give us what we need to get New England operating from a position of power, everything else could well fall into place. Sam Darnold will be pushed into a state of aggression, something that can work in a variety of ways.
How Patriots Blitz Rates Impact Darnold and the Seahawks
The obvious: “ghosts.” Darnold may have the history with the quote, but he’s not the only one it holds true for.
New England Blitz Rates
Weeks 1–12: 23.7% of opponent dropbacks
Since: 38.5% of opponent dropbacks
“Ghosts” don’t come out of nowhere. They are the result of defensive aggression, and that seems likely to be the plan for the Pats.
Let’s capitalize on that relatively tame thought.
In multiple ways.
First of all, we know that JSN is going to be targeted en masse no matter what. We’ve seen it all season, and ramping up the attempt count for Darnold only gives arguably the best receiver on the planet more opportunities.
That’s obvious.
Less obvious is the fact that Seattle tight ends have been targeted on 19% of their routes when Darnold has been blitzed this season, up from 15.4% otherwise. That advantage inflates further if you only measure the red-zone instances (26.7% when blitzed, 17.8% otherwise), and if a Barner touchdown comes through, we are loving his return on investment.
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We also get access to any Tush Push shenanigans: the Seahawks have told us for the majority of this season that they are in favor of non-Kenneth Walker touches in close, an angle that we have guarded via this construction.
The QB-Defense Stack: Darnold and the Patriots DST
Rostering a QB and the opposing defense isn’t the most popular build, but it’s not as crazy as you think. Some call it the Jameis Winston phenomenon. Call it whatever you want, but if we go back to that 2001 Super Bowl again, Kurt Warner threw 44 passes, racked up 365 yards, and, yep, threw a pick-six.
Can we get history to repeat itself?
It’s possible. It requires a leap of faith in our building of a roster and leaving $1,000 on the table, but it takes some creativity to cash in a showdown environment, especially one like this where all players are looking at the same board.
