At long last, we’ve reached the last game of the NFL season. The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks do battle in a Super Bowl 49 rematch. No, there aren’t any players from that game still on these teams.
This should be a fun game with some new faces playing for a championship. And, of course, it’s the last time we can do anything fantasy football related until September. So, let’s get into it!
Patriots Super Bowl Fantasy Football Preview
The story of the Patriots’ season has largely been a combination of that massive upgrade at head coach, going from Jerod Mayo to Mike Vrabel, and, of course, the ascent of Drake Maye.
The Patriots’ 86.6 PFSN QB Impact Score was second in the league and tops in the AFC. Maye’s 91.5 Impact Score was also second in the league and best in the AFC. However, the postseason story has been very different.
New England is in the Super Bowl because of its defense. Their 89.0 PFSN Defense Impact Score ranked tops amongst the Conference Championship teams last Sunday. They’ve now allowed a total of points across three postseason games. Both NFC teams scored more than that last week alone.
Maye has not played at an MVP level in the playoffs. He also hasn’t had to. While it’s unrealistic to expect him to do so against yet another elite defense (Seattle ranked No. 3 in PFSN Defense Impact Score this season), New England is not winning this game with running and defense.
The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in four of their last five games. If Josh McDaniels’ plan is to give the ball to Rhamondre Stevenson 25 times, this one will be over early.
Fantasy managers looking for Patriots to pop off should look to the passing game. Stefon Diggs would be the obvious choice, but he’s failed to reach 50 yards in 10 of his last 13. The two names I like to be sneaky impactful this week are Mack Hollins and Hunter Henry.
Hollins is more capable of making a splash play than Diggs. Henry can serve as a safety blanket against a defense that has actually been below average at defending the tight end this season.
Seahawks Super Bowl Fantasy Football Preview
By now, you’ve heard this one already, but I would be remiss to not mention it again. Somehow, Sam Darnold is the first QB of a loaded 2018 class to reach the Super Bowl. As a reminder, that class includes Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. What a time to be alive.
Most of the time, Darnold is more helping the team along than being the carry. His 78.6 Impact Score ranked 13th this season. He’s been good. But the Seahawks are a team, not just their quarterback.
Last week, though, when faced with an equally elite offense on the other side, Seattle needed Darnold to step up, and he delivered. Slingin’ Sammy threw for 346 yards, the third-highest total of his career (and most in Seattle), along with three touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Darnold brought along Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who very well may be the best wide receiver in football. It speaks volumes that Seahawks’ opponents know exactly where the ball is going and still can’t stop him. Only Puka Nacua had a higher WR Impact Score than JSN’s 94.4. He should have a field day against the Patriots’ pass funnel defense that allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers in the regular season.
Cooper Kupp scored last week, but he is merely an afterthought in this offense. Fantasy managers should use him in one-and-done formats if you still have him, but don’t expect anything.
Rashid Shaheed continues to be a gadget player, way better in real life than in fantasy.
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Simultaneously one of the most frustrating, but exciting, parts of the Seahawks’ offense has been Kenneth Walker III. With no Zach Charbonnet, he’s been thrust into a workhorse role. Walker has seen his passing game role increase with at least three receptions in four of his last five and seven of his last 10.
If you still have Walker available, you know what to do. But temper expectations against this elite run-stopping unit that allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season.
Super Bowl Prediction: Seahawks vs. Patriots
Last week, I correctly predicted the outcomes of both games, but I acknowledged a lack of confidence in the Seahawks. This week is not that.
The Seattle Seahawks are winning the Super Bowl. Maye is a superstar. Vrabel is a phenomenal head coach. Their time will come. Just not this year.
The NFC has been the better conference all year. Seattle is more battle tested. They are the better team. Maybe it’s just me, but looking back on things, they’ve been the best team all season, and I should’ve been much more confident in them reaching the Super Bowl having home field advantage than I was a month ago.
Mike Macdonald is already proving that he understands the objective. As Herm Edwards famously said, “You play to win the game! Hello!”
How many times have we seen coaches opt to run the ball, burn some clock, and give the ball to the other team with a chance to win or tie? Macdonald had no interest in that. He had Darnold throwing late in the fourth quarter because he did not want to give Matthew Stafford a chance. By the time the Rams got the ball back, their best hope was to get in position for a Hail Mary, which they did not. It was brilliant coaching.
Now, that’s not to say Vrabel plays scared or anything like that. His decision to run three times and punt late in the game was a product of the weather and the fact that it was highly unlikely Jarrett Stidham was going to be able to drive the field in those conditions. But I don’t think his team will be in that position against this opponent.
This won’t look like the last time Seattle won the Super Bowl when they completely ran over a Denver Broncos team led by Peyton Manning in what many consider to be the greatest offense in NFL history. New England will score more than eight points, and they won’t give up 43. But I don’t think we’re getting a nail-biter like we did 11 years ago.
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Patriots 17
