We are down to the final game of the NFL season. This will be the last time fantasy football managers have an opportunity to benefit from how players perform until September. With not much on the fantasy front available, the next best option is player props.
Even if you’re not big into betting, you may have been involved with props for years without even knowing it. There are plenty of Super Bowl parties out there that have little contests where everyone is asked to predict various events in the game.
You could also play DFS while using the PFSN Free DFS Optimizer. Or you could just place a good old-fashioned wager. However you’re approaching getting a little more action on the “Big Game,” we’ve got you covered.
Make sure you check back on the morning of the Super Bowl. We will release a ton of options, and those lines will last longer than I expect the ones listed below.
Those lines, naturally, are harder to beat, but if you want to jump in day of, we will have you covered on every possible angle. For now, we’ll cover the basic ones to get you started and give you an idea of where I lean based on the opening markets.
*All lines are taken from DraftKings at opening. Some of them have moved a lot. These are preliminary thoughts. More specific prop recommendations will be published on game day. Always be sure to shop for the best line.
Super Bowl 60 Quarterback Props
Sam Darnold Over 229.5 Passing Yards -111
In 19 starts, Sam Darnold has gone over this number 11 times. Klint Kubiak is one of the best play-callers in the NFL. He’s aware that you don’t run into the New England Patriots’ elite run-stopping unit when they are at full strength, and that’s the case here.
They are a pass funnel defense and, as he proved in the NFC Championship Game (25-of-36 for 346 yards, three touchdowns, and, most importantly, zero interceptions), Kubiak trusts his quarterback.
Drake Maye Over 226.5 Passing Yards -113
Player props are typically about projecting game script, and I am extremely confident the Seattle Seahawks win this game. That means a negative game script for the Patriots.
Drake Maye threw for only 86 yards against the Denver Broncos, but the weather and Jarrett Stidham played significant roles.
Seattle is a nothing funnel defense. They are excellent against both the run and the pass. When that’s the case, the move is typically to lean more toward the pass.
It’s actually pretty surprising to see Maye’s number lower than Darnold’s. He’s gone over this 14 times this season, and while I lean this direction, I’d rather lean into raw volume.
Maye’s listed passing attempts line is 31.5 (-116). He’s only gone over this number four times all season, but two of those came in losses due to the comeback desire. In the Super Bowl, you do what you have to in order to try and win.
Rhamondre Stevenson rush attempts don’t have the same upside as Maye dropbacks, so if you’re of the belief that the Seahawks control this game, there’s room to back the MVP candidate in a few different, volume-based ways.
Drake Maye Over 28.5 Rushing Yards -116
Maye went over this number eight times this season. The Seahawks just gave up 16 rushing yards to Matthew Stafford, who is a literal statue.
With the expectation that the Patriots fall behind early, Maye will try and be a hero. I like him to sail over this number. They’ve largely played in an even or positive script this postseason, and he still has 24 rush attempts across those three games.
For his career, Maye is picking up 5.5 yards per carry, and I don’t think asking him to run six or more times is asking for much, regardless of how the game plays out on the scoreboard.
Super Bowl 60 Running Back Props
Kenneth Walker III Under 83.5 Rushing Yards -114
I don’t love taking unders on running backs on teams I expect to play from ahead, but the Patriots have been stout against the run all season. They allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season. Only four running backs eclipsed this number against the Patriots all season.
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Kenneth Walker III will be heavily involved; that much we know. He should have a very good game. But expect him to be utilized more in the passing game, as that is how you beat the Patriots, especially when Milton Williams is active.
Kenneth Walker III Over 23.5 Receiving Yards -108
At least two or three times a game, Kubiak dials up a pass play designed to go to Walker. During the regular season, Patriots opponents targeted the running back position over 20% of the time.
Since Week 11, Walker has gone over this number six times, including three straight, all of which have featured a single grab gaining 15 or more yards.
If we are talking a path to volume and a skill set to cash this ticket with a single reception, what’s not to like?
He’s also cleared 2.5 receptions in seven of his past 10 games. That’s a more juiced angle (-171), but the overall thought process remains: this offense lacks a secondary option next to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and with Zach Charbonnet’s pass blocking savvy no longer an option, Walker is more of a threat as a pass catcher than he’s been at any point this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 55.5 Rushing Yards -112
The Seahawks were even better than the Patriots this season, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game. For Rhamondre Stevenson to reach this number, he will have to either break off a big run or see heavy volume.
This is where projected game script matters. You know I think they struggle to remain competitive, and that would naturally take the “heavy volume” part of that equation out of play.
As for the big play? Just one of his 388 carries since the beginning of last season has gone for 35 or more yards. The Patriots have committed to Stevenson not for the explosive nature of his carries, but for his ability to fall forward.
I’m expecting New England to be in a negative script for much of the second half, and if that’s the case, the chances of Stevenson getting the 16 or more carries that I think he’ll need to cost us are slim.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 14.5 Rush Attempts -120
This is not how I would play Stevenson, but if I were forced to pick a side, it would be the over. Stevenson had 25 inefficient carries against the Broncos.
While the game is competitive early on, I can see Josh McDaniels trying to force it because he is infatuated with Stevenson.
TreVeyon Henderson Under 19.5 Rushing Yards -108
Josh McDaniels has absolutely no use for TreVeyon Henderson, and that’s become more clear with each passing week. That’s not to say that he’s a bad player or won’t be of use next fantasy season, but we are evaluating a single game, and there’s not much trending in the right direction for the rookie.
Henderson had three carries for 5 yards last week, in a game where neither team wanted to throw the ball at all. In the two weeks prior, he saw more work, but 21 carries for 52 yards (15 of which came on a single attempt) isn’t exactly the type of efficiency that earns you more work.
Stevenson may not be Mr. Right for this backfield long-term, but he’s Mr. Right Now, and that has me only interested in the negative side of Henderson props.
Super Bowl 60 Wide Receiver Props
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 Receptions -141
I typically do not endorse props on elite players. They are the hardest to get a read on, and with high totals, any sort of health issue or game script concern could sink you, even when backing maybe the best receiver in the sport.
That said, Smith-Njigba has gone over this number in 13 games this season and is the clear focal point of this passing attack. Interestingly, his 10 receptions against the Los Angeles Rams marked the first time all season he hit double digits. Smith-Njigba has consistently been around seven or eight catches, and that would be enough to get us home.
The Patriots were in a snow storm last week, but against the Houston Texans in the divisional round, Jayden Higgins earned 10 targets and caught six of them in a game with Nico Collins sidelined.
If the Texans can put a rookie in position to succeed at that level, who is to say that, with two weeks of prep, the Seahawks can’t find a way to get their top player in space with the ball in his hands early and often?
Hunter Henry Over 35.5 Receiving Yards -111
The Seahawks have been below average against tight ends this season. They allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game to the position, and 12 of the 17 tight ends they faced during the regular season cleared their season average in terms of PPR fantasy points per game.
Look for Maye to need to get rid of the ball quickly against the sixth-ranked pressure unit and to struggle to get the ball outside. That means leaning more on his tight ends, allowing Hunter Henry to surpass this number despite consecutive down games.
Grabbing his over 3.5 receptions at plus-money is also in play if you want more bang for your buck in following this train of thought.
The matchups this postseason haven’t demanded much from him, but he did average 4.8 receptions per game in New England’s final six regular season victories, proving that this coaching staff is confident in scheming around him when needed.
Mack Hollins Over 27.5 Receiving Yards -115
Mack Hollins only saw two targets last week, but caught them both for 52 yards, which led the Patriots in receiving. It was also his first game back from an abdominal injury that forced him onto IR. He should be more involved this week and, again, I expect a lot of passing from the Patriots.
Every over bet starts at the same place, and that’s playing time. Hollins participated in 60.9% of New England’s snaps in Denver, a rate that was above his regular-season average, something that suggests that any injury limitations are a thing of the past.
We are obviously hoping for more than two targets, but having the big play out is nice. Since Week 10, Hollins caught at least three passes in all but one game, bringing his reception total (2.5, -120 for the over) very much in play if you believe the Pats are forced into a passing script like I do.
Kayshon Boutte Under 27.5 Receiving Yards -112
With Hollins back in the Championship game against the Broncos, Kayshon Boutte saw his role reduced. His snap share dipped from 82.8% the week prior in the win over the Texans to a modest 62.5%, the type of decline that is tough for a receiver like this to survive in the betting markets.
Maye will likely take a shot or two downfield to Boutte, and that introduces obvious risk. That said, the tandem connected on just one of six attempts a week ago, and any time there is a receiver whose success isn’t critical to that of the offense as a whole, finding yourself on the under side of wagers is often the savvy play.
Rashid Shaheed Under 23.5 Receiving Yards -116
Will Rashid Shaheed catch a bomb? That’s what you’re betting on.
Darnold hit him in stride on his second pass last weekend for 51 yards, cashing all of his yardage bets before some fans were even settled in.
But that was his only reception of the day (two other targets), and prior to that contest, Shaheed had not seen more than two targets in a game for four straight. He’s been an asset on special teams for Seattle, and that’s huge for them, but in the betting markets it’s been unders or nothing for me.
If you truly want to bet on something like last week repeating, a Same Game Parlay where you pair “over” on his yardage total and “under” on his receptions opens you up to a greater payout for the same general angle.
