The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Pittsburgh Steelers players heading into their matchup with the Indianapolis Colts to help you craft a winning lineup.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Aaron Rodgers has to be the QB with only one weekly finish better than No. 10 at the position that I fear the most in the NFL.
He looks reasonably comfortable and is largely delivering the ball on time in this conservative attack. The future Hall of Famer truly is a litmus test for just how much single-play upside, either with your legs or via air yards via the pass, dictates finishes at the position on a week-to-week basis.
Rodgers does neither. He’s yet to have a game with 10 rushing yards this season (not a surprise) and has seven completions of 20+ air yards in his seven starts.
For reference, Justin Herbert has a 10+ yard rush (not 10+ yards rushing, a single rushing play picking up what Rodgers can’t do in a game) in six games this season, and Russell Wilson had a single contest with seven such completions.
Rodgers looks poised and on schedule. He looks like he can lead an offense in real life, but counting on him in fantasy just can’t be done. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in three straight and completed at least two-thirds of his passes in five; he’s functioning at about as high a level as he can in this situation and not giving us the returns we need.
This obviously isn’t a good matchup, but he’s the opposite of matchup-proof: I wouldn’t feel comfortable playing him in any spot.
Jaylen Warren, RB
The Steelers didn’t impress me much on Sunday night, but I thought Jaylen Warren ran reasonably well, and he continues to be a steady RB2 that you can trust weekly.
He’s certainly being used in more of a “traditional” role than I would have guessed preseason, but with multiple receptions in all six of his games this season, I’m not too worried about the juggernaut Colts scripting Pittsburgh’s bell cow out of this game.
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Kenneth Gainwell has struggled outside of the game Warren missed, and Kaleb Johnson is an afterthought. You’ve got yourself a clear lead back in a conservative offense that needs him to be effective in order to thrive (Rodgers hinted at as much during the post-game press conference last week).
The upside isn’t elite because I don’t trust this offense to put up points in bulk, but be happy with your 10-12 points and keep it moving.
Kaleb Johnson, RB
We got a report a month ago that the Steelers believed Johnson would contribute before the season ended, but we’ve seen nothing to suggest that, and I’m done holding.
I think you’re better off trying to predict any trade that could happen at the upcoming deadline and investing down various depth charts in the hopes of striking gold. At this point, Johnson is a reminder that not all rookies are even remotely ready when they are drafted — and that’s all.
In two months, he’s gone from a popular value pick to a teaching utensil.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB
Gainwell had the big game in Dublin with Warren sidelined, but outside of that, he’s meant more to Pittsburgh than to fantasy managers.
On Sunday night against the Green Bay Packers, his only notable snap was a lost fumble (his first of the season), putting into question the minimum 6-8 touch role he currently holds for a team headed in the wrong direction.
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We have proof that he is the handcuff, and we know he is a fluid route runner — two factors that keep him rosterable in all formats, given the structure of this offense.
That said, there’s no reason for him to be even close to your flex spot. I’m not crazy about betting on the featured parts of this Arthur Smith offense, no matter the accent pieces.
DK Metcalf, WR
We have to be beyond a month at this point for me to encourage you to sell DK Metcalf to the highest bidder and running.
He scored for the fifth time in six games on Sunday night, but nothing is coming easy in this passing game, and that’s with Aaron Rodgers looking good.
What if the 41-year-old regresses a bit?
Metcalf made a mental mistake late in Week 8’s loss — one that Rodgers specifically mentioned in the post-game press conference — and little things like that lead me to believe we’ve already squeezed as much juice as possible out of this asset for the season.
In the past, Metcalf’s frame has helped him box out defenders and turn a single target into a strong stat line. That’s not the design of this offense (18.6% deep-ball rate, pacing for his first season under 25.5% and well below his career norm of 32.4%), which means he has to rack up volume to make a difference.
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Do you know the last time he had more than five catches in a game?
Nov. 17, 2024
His last double-digit target game was five weeks before that. This isn’t a player who wins with regularity; he needs to make his receptions count in a major way.
We’ve seen him take a slant 80 yards to the house this season, so it’s not as if he can’t produce, but the risk analysis is leaning away from him, especially with an older QB now expected to play at a high level for 13 straight weeks to end this season (the curse of a Week 5 bye).
I’d rather Jaylen Waddle moving forward. I’d rather Marvin Harrison Jr. Heck, I think you could make a compelling case that, given how he was used before the bye, Travis Hunter could outproduce Metcalf from Week 9 on.
Jonnu Smith, TE
If you’re asking which Pittsburgh TE to stream, you’re asking the wrong question.
Jonnu Smith held the slight edge over his teammates in snaps and routes, but it was Pat Freiermuth who led in targets, and Darnell Washington who continues to be viewed as an asset in scoring situations.
Smith caught five passes in the season opener and hasn’t had a game like that since. The lack of volume is one thing, and the fact that he has failed to record a catch gaining more than 10 yards in six of seven games is disturbing, given what we saw in Miami last season.
There isn’t a member of the Steelers’ passing game that needs to be rostered in anything but the deepest leagues, aside from Metcalf.
Pat Freiermuth, TE
You’re not going to believe this, but Freiermuth’s 5-11-2 stat line from Week 7 against the Cincinnati Bengals wasn’t sustainable.
Instead, he gave us under 35 receiving yards and zero scores for the sixth time in seven games as he continues to split a low-volume role three ways (Washington and Smith).
Freiermuth is a name you know, and it’s popular to stream tight ends on underdogs with the thought being that the passing script gives them a bump over the others in that tier.
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The strategy there is sound, but this Pittsburgh TE room isn’t one I’m ever going to land on. It’s a parlay when most situations, even at the streaming level, don’t require you to take on such risk. Not only do you need to nail the Steelers as the TE streaming team of the week, but you also have to tell me then which one does the heavy lifting.
Good luck with that. I’d rather go the AJ Barner route. Or, if we are talking underdogs getting a game script bump, Chig Okonkwo comes out ranked ahead of all of the Steelers, and I don’t even think he’s a great play.