Setting your Week 1 fantasy football lineup can be a puzzle of difficult choices. Established veterans are facing daunting defenses, creating potential headaches for managers.
As Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off, which Pittsburgh Steelers, including QB Aaron Rodgers and WR DK Metcalf, are worth starting against the New York Jets?
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Imagine not being sure if Shohei Ohtani could play both ways or a world in which Cooper Flagg couldn’t drive a car, let alone drive the lane at the highest level of hoops. Remember when Travis Kelce was more known for his commercials than his girlfriend, or when you weren’t sure if a show about an overly optimistic soccer coach would be successful?
That’s where we stood as a society the last time Aaron Rodgers threw for 200 yards or multiple scores in a season opener.
There’s a chance Rodgers squeaks past that arbitrary threshold this time, but in this world of video game numbers and versatile options, that won’t get it done in any standard league. The Jets’ defense ranked eighth in yards per pass, seventh in completion percentage, and fourth in touchdown pass rate, all of which are on the board for them to repeat this year.
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Additionally, this could be the slowest-paced game of this week — maybe this month? — and the pieces aren’t aligned for the future Hall of Famer to be close to your radar.
Jaylen Warren, RB
If you blinked, you missed it. There was a window of excitement this offseason that Jaylen Warren would finally be unleashed in his fourth NFL season. For better or worse, we thought we might actually see what a featured version of this fluid athlete could look like.
That dream was fun while it lasted, but seemed dead before it ever impacted a fantasy boxscore. Warren averages under 10 touches per game for his career.
Maybe we squeak past that number in Week 1 with an aging quarterback and a rookie bellcow back who hasn’t faced real pro-level competition yet, but there’s a bigger question: Is there enough role upside when facing the third-best per-play defense from 2024-25 to justify flexing him?
For me, the answer is a resounding “no.” He’s the same Warren we’ve grown accustomed to watching from the sidelines. A viable bailout option when you’re desperate or a low-end RB2 if someone ahead of him gets hurt. That means he gets to watch the Week 1 action from my bench.
Kaleb Johnson, RB
I like Kaleb Johnson to be the most productive back in Pittsburgh this season, and I’m not sure it’ll be close. That, however, doesn’t mean you should feel obligated to play him against a New York Jets defense that was the third-best on a yards-per-play basis in 2024.
Fun fact: No RB has forced more missed tackles this preseason than Steelers rookie Kaleb Johnson (7).pic.twitter.com/AZbSC8rQyW
— Mike Kennedy (@MikeKennedyNFL) August 18, 2025
The odds are good, based on ADP, that you have two, maybe three, running backs that you spent more capital on than Johnson. Stick with those guys. The time might come when Johnson is locked into your flex spot, which could come sooner than later.
For now, give me the rookies in this class with more role stability and more projectable offensive play volume. TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey could settle in the same tier as Johnson when this season is in the books, but for Week 1, I have both a cut above him.
Notably, the Steelers have Johnson listed as RB2 and Warren as RB1, but that could change throughout the season.
DK Metcalf, WR
Since you last saw DK Metcalf, he’s been traded, signed a five-year extension, been compared to Steph Curry, and had his personality blend with his quarterback called into question. Outside of that, nothing is new.
I wasn’t in a hurry to draft Metcalf as a weekly starter this summer, but his ADP did fall within the top-24 range at the position, which means that you likely penciled him into your starting lineup when you picked him. So now what?
You’re opposing a top-five defense in yards, yards per play, and pressure rate a season ago, all of which are trends that work against any sort of ceiling effort from Metcalf. With time, I could see Metcalf as a viable floor option — he works his way into Rodgers’s tight trust circle, proves capable of winning on quick-breaking routes, and posts a strong target share.
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We might get there, but I’m not opening the season by assuming we are in an Arthur Smith system that can lack creativity. I like the Broncos, Eagles, Ravens, and Lions to easily outscore the Steelers in what projects to be a game with little pace. All offenses have a receiver drafted in the Metcalf tier this summer.
I don’t think you’re doomed if you play Metcalf. He’s a tough matchup, and while Rodgers isn’t an MVP candidate anymore, he’s capable of feeding an alpha receiver. That said, the floor/ceiling math has him ranking, for me, a handful of spots lower this week than where you drafted him, and that opens the starting lineup conversation.
Pat Freiermuth, TE
Pat Freiermuth has been a reliable option in Pittsburgh. Still, when the team brings in a QB in his final season and then happens to trade for a more explosive option at the tight end position, things aren’t looking up for the former Nittany Lion.
Keep tabs here, but there’s nothing actionable about Freiermuth. You’re not playing him in Week 1, and nothing that happens in the opener will elevate his status massively.
We can talk if we get to the end of September, and it’s clearly Freiermuth over Jonnu Smith. Still, I don’t expect that to be the case regarding fantasy opportunities, and I’m OK with being late to that party should the early-season trends point in that direction.
Jonnu Smith, TE
I think it’s fair to assume that Aaron Rodgers played a large role in the Steelers acquiring Jonnu Smith this summer. In an offense that lacks a secondary pass catcher, he could well repeat his career year with the Dolphins.
Jonnu Smith’s BIG 33-yard reception set up the TD 💪
📺: #MIAvsLAR on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/e7kGtQhYS5— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2024
Smith is entering his age-30 season, and that’s concerning. This offense is likely to play slow and funnel-throw Metcalf when in scoring position. I’m not sold on Smith as a viable weekly option, but I do have him ranked ahead of the true waiver wire dart throws.
If you have Smith, you’re playing him this week and seeing what the usage looks like. You’re also seeing if Rodgers looks like the type of quarterback who can support two pass catchers on a weekly basis and checking on the snap/route split at the TE position.
I’m more bullish than bearish on Smith, but I would have also said that last season.
