Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Fantasy decisions will only get more difficult from here on out, so let’s take a look at our early Week 5 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em: Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets (vs. DAL)
It was looking like a floor game for Justin Fields on Monday night against the Miami Dolphins. Then, the negative game script hit. The Jets started calling pass plays. And Fields does what Fields does.
If the Jets couldn’t avoid falling behind against the Dolphins, they will surely struggle to contain the Dallas Cowboys’ high-octane offense.
With the Cowboys likely to score a lot of points, the Jets will have to keep up. Fortunately, that should not be an issue as the Cowboys have the worst defense in the NFL.
Most importantly, the Cowboys are a pass funnel. We just saw Fields do his thing against a Dolphins defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Care to guess why the Dolphins aren’t first? That’s right. It’s the Cowboys.
Fields now has 29 and 27 points in the two games he completed, and is headed for the easiest matchup he will have all season. He’s a top-six option this week.
Jaxson Dart, QB, New York Giants (at NO)
It goes without saying that this would look much better if Malik Nabers were still playing football. Obviously, that’s a significant hit to the New York Giants’ offense and Jaxson Dart’s upside. But Dart will be okay.
The benefit of mobile quarterbacks is that they are somewhat insulated from the quality of their pass catchers, at least from a fantasy perspective.
Dart had a relatively underwhelming debut statistically, right? He only attempted 20 passes. He threw for a measly 111 yards and one touchdown. Yet, managed to post just under 20 fantasy points. How? You know the answer. Rushing.
This is why mobility is such a cheat code in fantasy. Dart ran for 54 yards and a score. If he can average 30-40 rushing yards per game, he really only needs around 150 passing yards and a touchdown to push QB1 numbers. Anytime he gets to two scores, he’s going to be a QB1 firmly.
Dart passed his first test against an excellent Los Angeles Chargers defense. Now, he gets the New Orleans Saints, who are the worst team in football.
The Saints are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Dart should have a much easier time moving the ball downfield, even without Nabers. Given all the injured quarterbacks and bye weeks, Dart is a borderline QB1.
Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals (vs. TEN)
Update: With Benson on IR, both Michael Carter and Emari Demercado are solid RB3s this week. One of them is gonna probably post RB2 numbers. Hopefully, we get some clarity on who that is by the weekend.
If you started Trey Benson last week, you should have come away from that game feeling both underwhelmed and excited. Benson only managed 13 touches, which he turned into 10.4 fantasy points. You certainly want more. But the usage was very encouraging.
Don’t let Benson’s 55% snap share fool you; he was the guy. The gap between him and Emari Demercado only shrank because the Arizona Cardinals were in catch-up mode the entire game. Specifically, late in the fourth quarter, Demercado was in the game with the Cardinals in clear passing situations.
This week, the Cardinals are at home against a Tennessee Titans team that is, at best, the second-worst team in the league.
The Titans are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Benson’s efficiency should improve against a team the Cardinals should handle easily. Additionally, the likely positive game script will likely result in higher volume. This is a smash spot for Benson.
Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans (at BAL)
The Woody Marks takeover is almost complete. Each week, his snap share has steadily increased, with it finally surpassing Nick Chubb’s in Week 4.
Marks played a season-high 56% of the snaps. He also handled 21 touches, which he turned into 119 yards and two touchdowns.
Chubb no longer has it. Between his age and the injuries, it is over for him. He’s still good enough to handle between-the-tackles work and short yardage stuff. He won’t completely go away. But Marks is the vastly superior player at this point in their respective careers.
In the future, the gap between Marks and Chubb is expected to continue growing. Assuming Lamar Jackson can play, this game should feature a significantly negative game script for the Houston Texans. Chubb does not play in those situations. We could be looking at a heavy dose of Marks, particularly in the passing game.
The Baltimore Ravens are decimated on the defensive side of the ball, and no team allows more fantasy points per game to the position than the Baltimore Ravens. Marks is a firm start this week.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints (vs. NYG)
This Giants-Saints game could be a low-key shootout. Spencer Rattler may not be winning football games, but he is playing better than expected. He’s protecting the ball and getting it to his top offensive weapons. Rattler had the Saints ahead against the Bills in the fourth quarter last week.
Chris Olave’s usage has been nothing short of spectacular. Last week against the Bills was the first time Olave failed to reach double-digit targets. Fortunately, he found the end zone.
Olave has now reached double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. Moreover, he accomplished this feat throughout a tough stretch of opponents. The schedule is about to open up, and it starts this week against a New York Giants defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Fire up Olave with confidence.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts (vs. LV)
The answer as to when to draft Michael Pittman Jr. is whenever the fantasy community isn’t in on him. This year, he was going after Josh Downs. Evidently, that was a grievous error.
Pittman has hit 15+ fantasy points in three of his first four games to start the season. With Daniel Jones playing well, Pittman’s been able to find the end zone three times already. He’s commanding a 24.4% target share and is one of just two fantasy-relevant pass-catchers on the Indianapolis Colts (the other being Tyler Warren).
The Colts will undoubtedly continue leaning on Jonathan Taylor and the ground game. But the Las Vegas Raiders are a pass-funnel defense. They’re allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but the third most to wide receivers. Pittman should continue rolling in this favorable matchup.
Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders (at LAC)
The Washington Commanders’ offense functioned pretty well with Marcus Mariota under center. They scored 41 and 27 points in their two contests. But Mariota is not Jayden Daniels. He threw for 207 and 156 yards in his two starts, completing a total of 31 passes.
Mariota has not been kind to Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end posted lines of 3-38 and 2-21 with the backup at the helm.
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This is admittedly not the greatest matchup. The Chargers have a good defense and are just outside the top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends. However, the tight end position is a wasteland, and we need starters.
Ertz is expected to get Daniels back this week. Terry McLaurin certainly appears to be sidelined again. That puts Ertz in the role of de facto No. 2 pass catcher behind Deebo Samuel Sr. In a week with multiple starting tight ends on bye, that’s good enough to get him in fantasy lineups.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. KC)
The same logic that applies to Ertz applies to Brenton Strange. It’s a little different in that Strange is not the No. 2 pass catcher in his offense. But he’s the clear No. 1 TE on his team and ran just two fewer routes than Brian Thomas Jr. last week.
Strange has yet to find the end zone, but has still managed double-digit fantasy points in three of his four contests (He had 9.9 in Week 1. I’m rounding up).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have also benefited from a surprisingly large amount of positive game script over the first month of the season. That seems likely to change when facing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Even though the Chiefs are allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, Strange is still worth a spot in lineups this week.
Sit ‘Em: Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (at PHI)
Bo Nix is coming off his best game of the season. Even in a positive game script, Nix attempted 42 passes, a season high. Clearly, Sean Payton’s game plan was to beat the Cincinnati Bengals through the air. It worked.
Nix posted 26.7 fantasy points. They threw for two touchdowns and ran for another. It was a superb performance.
Although he has two 20+ point efforts, Nix also has two games under 14 fantasy points. It’s been 50/50 whether the Broncos’ QB has been worth starting.
The Philadelphia Eagles are allowing the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Those numbers would be even more substantial if not for two long Baker Mayfield touchdown passes last week.
This is projected to create a game where the Broncos struggle to generate offense. They also may not possess the ball much, as the Eagles control the clock well by seldom calling pass plays. Nix is still a high-end QB2, at worst, but if you can find a better option, go with that.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (at LAR)
The San Francisco 49ers are in a bad way. George Kittle is still at least one more week away from returning. Brandon Aiyuk is not close. Now, Ricky Pearsall is almost sure to miss Thursday Night Football after reporting instability in his knee during Sunday’s loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. There’s no way he will be able to get right on a short week.
Brock Purdy is headed on the road to face a formidable divisional opponent with a banged-up Jauan Jennings as his WR1 and Kendrick Bourne as his WR2. Yikes.
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The Los Angeles Rams are allowing the 11th fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. This is a quick turnaround. The 49ers are decimated at pass catcher. Everything shapes up for Purdy to underwhelm in this one.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (vs. TB)
Kenneth Walker III is such a fascinating player. Evaluating him as a talent is truly a matter of perspective.
On the one hand, his explosiveness and considerable play ability are very apparent. He is liable to turn any carry into a chunk gain.
On the other hand, Walker seems to only care about splash plays. Some backs turn small losses into moderate gains. Walker is an expert at turning moderate gains into small losses.
Several times on Thursday night, Walker declined an easy 3-4 yards to chase a big play and wound up going backwards. It’s something that’s plagued him his entire career and is likely a significant reason we are seeing so much Zach Charbonnet.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a decidedly average run defense, ranking right in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position. Walker is a decidedly average fantasy back.
While it is noteworthy that he saw 21 opportunities against the Arizona Cardinals, none of them were near the goal line. Walker also only ran 12 routes. He needs splash plays on the ground to salvage his fantasy value.
Without the prospect of big receiving numbers or short touchdowns, how is Walker going to score his points? At best, he’s probably doing something similar to last week’s 110 scoreless yards, good for 12.0 fantasy points. What if he sees slightly less volume because the Bucs force the Seattle Seahawks into a little more passing? His only hope of scoring is breaking off a long run.
Walker is probably not someone you can afford to bench, but expectations need to be tempered this week.
Jordan Mason, RB, Minnesota Vikings (at CLE)
Jordan Mason’s role without Aaron Jones Sr. active is genuinely fantastic. In the right matchups, he’s a clear fantasy RB1. The Cleveland Browns are not the right matchup.
Although the Browns are not a strong team with just one win through four games, they have an outstanding defense. Cleveland is allowing the third fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Last week, Jahmyr Gibbs was able to find room because he’s Jahmyr Gibbs. David Montgomery much more closely resembles the type of runner Mason is. Montgomery carried the ball nine times for 12 yards.
By no means should fantasy managers expect a similarly dismal performance. Mason will likely be able to volume his way to double digits. But with Zavier Scott serving as the passing down back, unless Mason falls in the end zone, his stat line may look a lot like last week’s 72 scoreless yards.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. DEN)
Fair warning. The wide receiver sits aren’t precisely the guys fantasy managers are clamoring to start, nor are they solely matchup-based. This is a particularly challenging week, with at least four clear fantasy starters at wide receiver on bye. Additionally, we have several players who we thought were surefire starters underperforming. And we have injuries.
DeVonta Smith has actually been pretty easy to figure out, at least in hindsight. In fact, the entire Philadelphia Eagles passing game has.
Ask yourself a simple question each week: Will the Eagles trail? If the answer is “no,” you do not want to start anyone on this team other than Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.
The Eagles have had three games with a neutral to positive game script. In those games, Smith has averaged 6.3 fantasy points. It’s not just Smith, either. A.J. Brown has averaged 4.1 fantasy points in those same contests.
Against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, who got out to an early lead, forcing Hurts to throw, Smith posted 20 fantasy points. Brown topped him with 22.9 points.
Looking at the Eagles’ schedule, there are maybe 2-3 games left where they might face a negative game script. So, this may actually be the last time Smith can be called a sit since he will not be a top 48 WR most weeks.
The Eagles are home against a Denver Broncos defense allowing the second fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers (excluding Monday Night Football). They are unlikely to find themselves trailing. That means Smith is a sit.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. WAS)
After Week 1, Ladd McConkey was a buy. He saw nine targets. He looked great. He just happened not to score. Then, in Week 2, his output dropped again…then again in Week 3 before hitting rock bottom in Week 4.
Four weeks is simultaneously a small sample size and also not. It’s only four games, but it also represents almost 25% of the season. McConkey caught one pass for 11 yards against a Giants defense that can’t stop anyone through the air.
We have to call it like we see it. Quentin Johnston is the Chargers’ WR1. Keenan Allen is the WR2.
Justin Herbert is throwing enough to sustain three fantasy-relevant wide receivers. But how much output fantasy managers get from those players depends on each player’s role. McConkey is firmly third.
The Washington Commanders are allowing the seventh most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This is a good matchup. With a returning Jayden Daniels, the Commanders could make this into a fun high-scoring contest. Will it matter, though?
McConkey was a second-round pick this year. It’s tough to finally gather the stones to put that guy on your bench. But it’s time. Until we see something change with the usage of the Chargers’ wide receivers (or someone gets hurt), McConkey cannot be trusted.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings (at CLE)
We are doubling down on the Vikings’ offense this week. It’s just a terrible spot against a Browns defense that is simply good.
T.J. Hockenson was not particularly featured in this offense back when JJ McCarthy was starting and Jordan Addison was suspended. He had nine catches for 76 yards and a touchdown over the first three weeks of the season.
Now, with Carson Wentz under center and Addison back, what exactly is Hockenson’s upside? He managed four receptions for 39 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Dublin, but he didn’t catch a pass until the fourth quarter when the Vikings were down three scores. There is no deliberate effort to get him the ball.
Given the state of the tight end position and how few reliable starters there are, you probably won’t be able to bench Hockenson. Just know that it could be another disappointing effort from the veteran.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (at BUF)
Outside of Week 2, Hunter Henry has been a very reliable tight end. He’s posted games of 10.6, 29.0, and 11.9 in his other three contests. You may not have a better option. But this week is going to be a challenge.
The Buffalo Bills are allowing the third fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. While the likelihood of a negative game script may seem beneficial, there’s a very real risk that the Bills will dominate the New England Patriots, with the latter struggling to extend drives. Pass catchers can’t rack up target volume when drives aren’t extended.
Additionally, Henry’s usage hasn’t been entirely consistent. He saw eight targets in Week 1 and 11 in Week 3. In Weeks 2 and 4, he saw a combined five targets. It’s really hit or miss, which is to be expected in an offense that lacks a clear top option in the passing game.
Henry looks like a fantasy TE1 for the rest of the season, but he does not look like one in Week 5.