Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet head into a crucial Thursday night rematch with the Rams. The Seahawks’ backfield timeshare has tilted more toward Walker recently, but both backs face a difficult test on a short week. Should you start Kenneth Walker III or Zach Charbonnet in fantasy football this week?
Kenneth Walker III’s Fantasy Outlook
Walker has been one of the worst picks in fantasy this season. He’s averaging a career-worst 10.1 fantasy points per game through 14 weeks. Walker’s seen a 52% opportunity share as this backfield has been a timeshare for much of the season, limiting his ceiling despite his theoretical status as the lead back.​
In recent weeks, the usage has flipped more in Walker’s favor. Coach Mike Macdonald explicitly stated that Walker is “earning more opportunities to get the ball” based on his performance. The problem is he gets all of the empty, low-value touches.​
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer
Walker operates as the early-down back between the 20s. He doesn’t catch passes consistently and doesn’t get goal-line carries, roles that have belonged to Charbonnet for much of the season. How is he supposed to score fantasy points with that usage profile? He has just 22 receptions on 27 targets all season for 176 yards, giving him virtually no PPR floor.​
Another issue is Walker’s talent, or lack thereof. He’s an explosive runner with big-play ability, but he has horrendous vision. Arguably one the worst in the league.
Either he sees where he’s supposed to go but chooses to go somewhere else, or he doesn’t see it at all. I’m not sure which one is worse. Walker’s sole objective on every carry seems to be to break off a long run. He has no interest in just taking what is blocked or settling for four yards.
Zach Charbonnet’s Fantasy Outlook
Charbonnet has been the better fantasy player all season, but only because he has held the goal-line role for most of the year. The reality is he’s been just as bad as Walker as a runner from an efficiency standpoint. He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on 140 attempts.
Charbonnet’s target share is even lower than Walker’s at just 4.0% of the team’s passes. He has just 11 receptions on 14 targets for 87 yards all season. He’s not providing any receiving upside despite his role as the passing down back.
The only advantage he has is in fantasy points per opportunity, largely due to touchdowns scored earlier in the season. But even that advantage has eroded as Walker has taken over more goal-line work in recent weeks.
Should You Start Walker or Charbonnet This Week?
The matchup this week is awful. The Rams are allowing the fewest schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs. Los Angeles has held opposing backfields to single-digit fantasy production in seven of their 13 games this season. But it’s a short week and a rematch, which historically produces unpredictable results.​
Weird things happen on Thursday night, especially given the fact that the Seahawks scored just 18 points and no offensive touchdowns last week against the Colts. They should play much better offensively in a pivotal division game.
The last time these teams met in Week 11, Seahawks running backs combined for 158 total yards, one touchdown, and five receptions. They were very effective overall.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 16 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
The Seahawks are at home where they’ve won four straight games. Game script could favor Seattle’s rushing attack if they can get ahead early.​ At the very least, they shouldn’t fall behind too far and have to abandon the run.
Ultimately, fantasy managers should do everything in their power to avoid starting either of these backs. It’s a bad matchup on a short week against an elite run defense. They aren’t particularly good players from an efficiency standpoint. And the workload split makes both impossible to trust, especially in the fantasy semi finals.
