The Indianapolis Colts’ receiving corps presents vastly different risk profiles as Josh Downs and Alec Pierce navigate their contrasting roles within the offense. Both receivers enter Week 9 with questions surrounding their reliability despite facing a vulnerable Pittsburgh Steelers secondary. Can fantasy football managers trust either Colts receiver this week?
Josh Downs’ Fantasy Outlook
After missing Week 7 with a concussion, Downs returned to action in Week 8 and posted a season-high 64% snap share. The increased playing time represents his highest involvement of the campaign, though snap-count limitations continue restricting his weekly ceiling.
Downs almost exclusively plays in three-receiver sets and runs 69% of his routes from the slot, creating a defined but narrow role within Indianapolis’ offensive structure.
Despite limited opportunities, Downs has proven remarkably efficient with his touches. The slot specialist has posted double-digit fantasy points in four of his seven games played this season. Downs is being targeted on 25.5% of his routes run, ranking 19th in the league and reflecting Daniel Jones’ trust in his possession receiver.
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Last week’s performance highlighted both Downs’ scoring ability and concerning volatility. Downs saw just three targets against Tennessee but salvaged his fantasy day by finding the end zone. Without that touchdown, the outing would have represented another disappointing result for managers seeking consistent weekly production.
A hip injury kept Downs out of Wednesday’s practice this week, but he returned to a full session on Thursday and Friday, suggesting it is no big deal. It is a stark reminder of Downs’ fragility, though. He previously missed time with an ankle injury before the concussion that sidelined him in Week 7.
Alec Pierce’s Fantasy Outlook
While underrated by casual observers, Pierce remains firmly entrenched as the fourth option in Indianapolis’ passing attack. The Cincinnati product operates behind Michael Pittman Jr., tight end Tyler Warren, and Downs in the target hierarchy.
Pierce’s production profile centers entirely on explosive plays rather than consistent volume. He functions functions primarily as a deep-ball specialist, evidenced by his 22.2 average depth of target that ranks second in the league.
The vertical threat either connects on long completions or fails to contribute meaningfully to fantasy lineups. Pierce has managed at least 8.9 fantasy points and five targets in back-to-back weeks while scoring 10.7 or more points in three of his six games this season.
Statistical trends reveal Pierce’s fantasy value directly correlates with Downs’ health status. Since last season, Pierce has averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game in 18 contests with Downs active compared to 15.6 points per game across four games without Downs. The expanded opportunities that arise from Downs’ absence significantly elevate Pierce’s target share and route participation.
Pierce enters Week 9 with Downs expected to play, naturally limiting his projected involvement. The deep threat has posted a 17.5% target share with a 45.4% air-yard share when operating alongside his slot counterpart. Pierce leads Indianapolis with nine deep targets this season, though those opportunities become less frequent when the full receiving corps is healthy.
Should You Start Downs or Pierce This Week?
Pittsburgh presents an exceptional matchup for both Indianapolis receivers despite the Steelers’ defensive reputation. This is not the classic fearsome Pittsburgh defense of years past.
The Steelers function as a massive pass funnel, allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Since Week 4, Pittsburgh has surrendered the second-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers.
Coverage structure particularly favors Pierce’s skill set against Pittsburgh’s defensive scheme. The Steelers deploy single-high safety looks at the third-highest rate in the NFL at 63%.
Against single-high coverage, Pierce has posted a 29.5% target share and 4.33 yards per route run while serving as the first read on 33.3% of dropbacks. Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-most deep passing yards per game and the ninth-highest passer rating to downfield targets since Week 4.
Slot vulnerability also creates opportunities for Downs against Pittsburgh’s defensive alignment. The Steelers have struggled defending intermediate routes through the middle of the field where Downs primarily operates. However, Jones’ ability to support four fantasy-relevant pass catchers while Jonathan Taylor dominates touches remains questionable.
Downs emerges as the superior fantasy start due to his higher target rate and more defined role within the offense. Pierce functions as an exceptional desperation dart throw for managers requiring high-upside gambles.