The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 16, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or merely a case of growing pains.
Thursday night’s Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks matchup could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both NFC powerhouses. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 16 performance.
Sam Darnold, QB
The Seahawks continue to win, and it requires very little from their starting quarterback.
Sam Darnold failed to throw a touchdown pass on Sunday, his third such outing over his past five games, one of which was the first game against these Rams (29-of-44 for 279 yards and four interceptions).
I don’t think we are in danger of a repeat performance, if for no other reason than airballs like that don’t happen often to playoff teams. However, they had a simple game plan and executed it at a high level.
In that Los Angeles win, Darnold had 13 pressured passes, and they netted just 40 yards and three turnovers. I expect this offense to be prepared for that sort of aggression this week. With Rashid Shaheed more comfortable in his role, I do think there’s some upside to a contrarian Darnold angle, be it for betting or DFS showdown situations.
Even with that take, I can’t get Darnold inside of my top 15 at the position: he’s not someone to trust with your season on the line, but that’s been the case for the past two months. There are streaming options that offer more upside with less risk.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
At this point, you know the team: Explosive talent with limited touch upside and minimal scoring equity.
The Seahawks gave him their first five carries on Sunday against the Colts, begging him to establish himself as the leader of this backfield, and he rewarded them with… six yards.
It was a split with Zach Charbonnet from then on out, and that meant a lot of nothing for fantasy managers. Walker has been held under a dozen carries in three of his past four games and has scored just one TD since September.
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It should be noted that he totaled 111 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with these Rams. He picked up yardage on all 16 of his carries, and I think that’s probably enough to earn him an extended first-quarter look again, but that assures us of nothing.
I have Walker ranked as RB25 this week, fully knowing that if he hits, I’m way too low, and if not, I’m 20 spots too high.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
It would appear that the Seahawks are begging Kenneth Walker to take control of this backfield by giving him almost all of the early work, but he’s been unable to capitalize.
That isn’t good for everyone.
Snap Rates, Week 15 vs. Colts
- Kenneth Walker: 87.5% in Q1, 35.3% after that
- Charbonnet: 12.5% in Q1, 60.8% after that
Charbonnet is averaging 3.7 yards per carry with 14 targets for the season. His role/skill set isn’t meant to be fantasy relevant if he’s not scoring touchdowns, and as his involvement in the early scripted plays declines, those scoring opportunities, even in a good offense, stand to be few and far between.
On Sunday against the Colts, he ran eight times for 31 yards, nearly identical to the 11 for 37 line he put up in the first meeting with these Rams.
He has the red zone role (eight rushing scores this season) and is the clear “well, if Walker isn’t going to do anything productive, let’s pivot” option, but that’s pretty tough to bank on pregame, as the touch projection isn’t going to clear 10 with any level of confidence.
When these teams first met, it was a race to 20 points, and in that sort of game atmosphere, there’s even less upside for a player like Charbonnet than normal.
Cooper Kupp, WR
Cooper Kupp caught five of seven targets on Sunday against the Colts in a surprisingly competitive game. It was his third game with at least a handful of receptions this season and his first since Week 5.
It’s noise.
I’m not counting on this level of involvement in a short week. The Seahawks couldn’t run the ball over the weekend (22 carries for 50 yards), and that led to more volume through the air than usual. Kupp accounted for just under 17% of Seattle’s receiving yards, and if that rate sustains, he’s not going to be close to viable most weeks.
Shaheed is looking slightly more comfortable in this offense with each passing week, and AJ Barner saw another six targets over the weekend. What we got in Week 15 was on the high end of expectations, and is 9.6 PPR points really the type of ceiling you want to be chasing?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has cleared 18 PPR points in 12 of 14 games this season and is proving more than capable of winning at every level.
Against the Colts last week, JSN posted his ninth 100-yard effort of the season and did so on his second-lowest aDOT of the season (7.7 yards) courtesy of his second-highest slot participation rate.
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That’s more detail than you realistically care about, but it speaks to Seattle’s desire to find ways to feed their WR1 at a high level as opposed to working to get other pass catchers involved.
In the Week 11 matchup against the Rams, Smith-Njigba turned 12 targets into nine catches for 105 yards. Status quo. If you’re searching for the JSN nugget of the week, he’s caught nine of 10 targets from the slot over the past month, a role he didn’t have against the Rams in the first meeting (zero targets on six routes).
Rashid Shaheed, WR
If you’re considering Shaheed on Thursday night in this tough matchup, you know what you’re signing up for. There isn’t a floor to chase, and the skill set comes with a ton of risk when attached to the slow stylings of this offense.
That said, I think you could do worse if you’re managing a plucky underdog and taking on the best team in your league.
Shaheed has seen his target share rise in three straight, and his 106 air yards last week were his most since joining the ‘Hawks’ in Week 10. His statistically strong Week 15 also saw him earn his first end zone target in a month, and with the Rams likely to bring jailbreak pressure schemes, the odds of this significant play threat getting loose for a single impact catch are as high, in my opinion, as they’ve been since the trade.
The low volume keeps him ranked outside of my top 30, but that’s a ranking based on a median projection. If you’re in a spot where you can swallow risk for reward, I think this is a sharp way to do it.
AJ Barner, TE
I assume you’re reading this section because you want to recreate the magic from the Week 11 meeting: 10 catches on 11 targets for 70 yards.
That performance looked good in the moment, as Barner was able to succeed next to, not at the expense of, Smith-Njigba (28.6% target share with north of 100 yards), but it’s looked like fool’s gold ever since.
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In the four games prior, he has totaled 12 catches and 107 yards. I know we had the weird 61-yard catch back in Week 6 against the Jags, but Barner doesn’t have a reception gaining more than 15 yards in a game since, and that means you’re relying on volume in an offense that ranks 26th in plays per game this season.
Every data point is worthy of our attention, not just the one that supports your streaming case that happened to come in this matchup. I don’t think the Rams have a hole that Barner is uniquely qualified to exploit, and in that, I expect his recent production (2-4 catches for 30 yards) to be more predictive than the outlier from mid-November.
