The fantasy football world is buzzing with uncertainty around Sam Darnold’s Seattle debut after his stunning breakout year in Minnesota last season. While he shocked the league with 35 touchdowns and a top-10 fantasy football finish in 2024, his move to Seattle presents a compelling puzzle for managers.
With a vulnerable 49ers defense on tap and questions swirling about Seattle’s conservative offensive approach, Week 1 could either validate the Darnold believers or send fantasy owners scrambling for alternatives.
Sam Darnold, QB
It’s a one-season sample under Mike McDonald, but Seattle’s highest one-score rush rate of last year came in the Week 1 win over the Broncos. I’m not assuming that we can copy/paste that into 2025, but in an offense with a new QB in a game that sportsbooks are labeling as a coin flip — would it surprise you if this were a run-first script?
I don’t trust San Francisco’s defense to put up much resistance this week (or this season, for that matter), making a conservative offensive plan all the more likely for the home team.
We didn’t see Darnold throw more than 31 passes in a game until November last season, and that was during a breakout in an aggressive system. There is volume and efficiency risk in this profile until we see something different, and that has me looking elsewhere this weekend.
Watching some Sam Darnold highlights pic.twitter.com/DoDyuLNeDF
— SleeperSeahawks (@SleeperSeahawks) June 15, 2025
That’s not to say Darnold can’t have success in 2025; I’m just going to need data points suggesting that his strong 2024 wasn’t the result of an idyllic situation.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
You’re allowed to ask plenty of questions when it comes to the profile of Kenneth Walker III. Can he hold up for a full season after missing multiple games in all three of his NFL seasons? Why has he lost over 8% in terms of yards per carry in consecutive seasons? Will Zach Charbonnet assume a greater role in a Sam Darnold-led offense than in years past?
Those are all fair concerns that impact the former second-round pick’s long-term outlook. What I’m not worried about is Week 1.
A fresh Walker is a problem, and this 49ers defense is a major liability. They gave up 29 or more points in five of seven games to close the 2024 season and finished as the second-worst red zone defense in the league, so I can’t imagine I need to convince you this defense is not anywhere close to what comes to mind when you first think of this franchise.
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Walker has scored 18 PPR points in each of his past four September games. That may seem like a random stat, and at some level, it is, but I do think there’s something to it.
When is he ever going to be healthier? There were two games in 2024 in which Walker had a run gain of more than 20 yards, and they both came in September. There were three games in which he ran for a score and earned at least three targets, and all three came in his first four contests of the year.
Selling high on Walker could well be a discussion we are having in the next month or so. For now, enjoy a healthy version of him. An explosion version. A version that will make you think anything is possible and that you might have a league-winner on your hands.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
Zach Charbonnet is the West Coast version of Atlanta Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier, and that’s all there is to it for now. In a vacuum, I prefer Charbonnet because I think he is closer to a meaningful role, but with a healthy starter in front of him, there’s no clear path to feeling good about starting him in any capacity.
The 49ers project as a defense to target, and I don’t think that will change over the next four months. With health generally strong across the league right now and no bye weeks to navigate, you’d have to be in a tough spot to consider Charbonnet and his sub-10 touch role.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
Draft rooms this summer didn’t reflect much optimism surrounding new teammate Cooper Kupp. Still, there is no denying that the former fantasy phenomena’s fit is something that managers holding Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be in tune with.
Kupp has run over 63% of his routes out of the slot in consecutive seasons, and with “JSN” lining up there 77.4% of the time, there’s undoubtedly a replication of skills worry. But does it matter? For his career, Smith-Njigba’s efficiency metrics look better when not lined up tight (14% production over expectations and 1,87 fantasy points per target) than when he is placed in the slot (2% and 1.76).
JAXSON SMITH-NJIGBA WITH THE CLUTCH TD 😤
He’s going OFF against the Rams 🔥
(via @Seahawks) pic.twitter.com/vx7HdtbMtD
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 4, 2024
The rising star earned 20 targets (15 catches for 163 yards) in two runs at the 49ers a season ago and should be locked in as the low-end WR1, high-end WR2 that you drafted him to be.
Cooper Kupp
I’m proud of us as a community. Cooper Kupp has prominent name recognition and is starting a new situation with not only a quarterback coming off a career year but also one that lacks much target competition behind him on the depth chart.
If you wanted to sell yourself on a huge age-32 season, you could have convinced yourself. We all could have jammed Kupp inside the top-30 of the position in terms of ADP and been content to draft him at, or above, his 2025 ceiling. But we showed restraint. Go us!
I fear, however, that the job isn’t done. Every advanced metric points to physical decline and uneven production coming up. We all seem to be on board with that general premise, but we see Week 1 overreactions occur every year.
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The 49ers were the seventh-worst defense per Defense+ last season, and it’s reasonable to project similar struggles to continue through 2025.
Combine that with the fact that Kupp has reached triple-figure receiving yards in each of his past four season openers (average numbers: 10.5 catches for 115.3 yards), and there’s a world in which Kupp clears our modest Week 1 projections and generates some excitement in your league.
We agreed that there would be ups and downs. It’s easy to get carried away with the first data point of the season. Be careful. You can squint and see a flex option in Kupp in this matchup if it makes you feel good, but should he go nuts in this perfect spot at full strength, remember where you stood on his outlook before kickoff.
