Divisional Round slates don’t always reward creativity. Sometimes the right play is the obvious one that everyone talks themselves out of.
In my full slate breakdown, I covered multiple stacks—but this one leans into a different thesis: what if boring is the edge? The Seattle stack won’t be popular. Most players will grab Jaxon Smith-Njigba and move on. But if San Francisco’s injuries finally catch up to them, half-measures leave points on the table.
This lineup pairs a cheap Seahawks stack with a Rams run-game bet against Chicago. Here’s the case for both.
Looking for more DFS advice for the entire weekend? Head on over to Kyle Soppe’s DFS Cheat Sheet for the Divisional Round where you can find more stacks to consider.
The Seattle Stack Nobody Wants
QB | Sam Darnold (vs. SF)
RB | James Cook (at DEN)
RB | Kyren Williams (at CHI)
WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. SF)
WR | Jauan Jennings (at SEA)
WR | Luther Burden III (vs. LAR)
TE | AJ Barner (vs. SF)
Flex | Blake Corum (at CHI)
D/ST | Los Angeles Rams (at CHI)
This might be the most boring lineup you can reasonably create, but “boring” doesn’t mean “wrong.” Heck, it often is more tied to low ownership than you’d assume because there’s the thought that little upside is available.
The Seattle stack isn’t going to be popular, I feel good about that. Most people are going to feel fine about getting exposure to this offense through Smith-Njigba and be on their way.
MORE: PFSN’s FREE DFS Lineup Optimizer
But if we say the lack of health in San Francisco is finally going to lead to their demise, why not lean in fully?
Since Week 9, the JSN/AJ Barner tandem has seen 60% of Seattle end zone targets, and at his price point, a score basically gets the tight end home (3-4 catches in five of his past six games). If he can get us 12+ PPR points, I think we can feel good about this stack paying for itself and getting us a leg up on the competition.
Twice this season (Michael Wilson in Week 11 and Luther Burden in Week 17) has a receiver cleared 30 DK points against the Niners, and another three times has a wideout scored at least 22 DK points.
Smith-Njigba has nine double-digit target games under his belt this season and offers a great floor against a secondary that he’s already torched for 208 yards across eight quarters this season.
What About the Rams’ DFS Potential?
Your eye likely goes directly to the Rams RB duo, and I don’t blame you.
That’s aggressive, and that’s why this is more of a GPP lineup than one I’d take into a head-to-head event against my brother.
In Weeks 13-18, the Rams ran the ball on 52.7% of their offensive snaps when up by at least three points, a nice little boost from their 49.4% rate in their five games prior. Yes, that’s a slight edge, but we are talking about a four-game slate where differentiating is a struggle.
RELATED: Fantasy PPR Rankings for Divisional Round
During the regular season, the Bears ranked No. 21 in EPA against the run, No. 27 in success rate against RBs, and No. 30 in RB yards per carry gained before contact. Opponents have left the door open for them by turning the ball over (4.3% INT rate by the Bears this regular season, the highest since the 2019 Patriots), and Caleb Williams has stepped through.
Here me out: what if the sharp Rams refuse to put the ball in harm’s way?
This is as much a game-theory play as anything. The story we are telling is a Rams blowout win, and that’s why I’ve included their D/ST in this build: a reckless Williams can help us pay the bills (we just saw Rodgers self-destruct at the end of a blowout and allow the opposing D/ST to pile up the points).
This also gives us leverage on what I expect will be an ultra-popular Matthew Stafford/Nacua build. Every point our running backs get is one that that stack can’t, and even if Stafford were to benefit from a screen pass to either RB resulting in a big play, we are making out better point-wise on that play.
