The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New Orleans Saints players heading into their matchup with the Seattle Seahawks to help you craft a winning lineup.
Spencer Rattler, QB
Spencer Rattler had 50 opportunities in Week 1 and finished as QB21. In this era of football, I’d typically argue that any quarterback can luckbox into a top 15 performance, but I really am not sure how Rattler would pull it off.
The three touchdown passes against the 49ers last week were nice to see, but I don’t think they will sustain. He’s averaging 8.1 yards per completion this season, a rate that will make a pocket-oriented quarterback useless most weeks.
Alvin Kamara, RB
The trade window remains open.
Alvin Kamara got there with a touchdown in Week 1 and a 24% reception share in Week 2. He’s been an RB2 both weeks, and that’s fine if you played him, but this Saints offense looks as bad as advertised, and that has me running away from this investment if I can.
We are nearing 1,100 days since Kamara’s last 25-yard carry. If you, like me, believe that scoring opportunities are going to be sparse at best, you’re putting a lot of faith in this collection of below-average quarterbacks to get him the volume he needs through the air.
I think it’s more likely that Kamara finishes outside of the top 20 at the position than inside the top 10, and I’m guessing that if you sell before this game, you’ll get a pretty solid return for that profile.
Chris Olave, WR
I’m a Chris Olave fan, and I continue to believe the talent is there to be a difference-maker at this level, but I’m done standing in the way of this offense’s limitations.
Olave has earned double-digit targets in both contests, yet his next 15-yard grab will be his first of the season. He’s Garrett Wilson, his OSU teammate, who was drafted one pick after in 2022, with more volume and more volatility under center. But the overall profile is the same: a strong talent in a crippling situation.
Odd situations like this demand an unusual statistical chart, so let’s create one. Here are all the occurrences since 2000 when a receiver caught at least 13 passes through the first two weeks of the season and failed to reach 110 receiving yards in the process:
- Jarvis Landry (2017, just one game played): 78 yards
- Wes Welker (2010): 102
- Miles Austin (2013): 103
- Olave (2022): 108
Olave’s average target depth is greater than that of the other three names combined, which further highlights how brutal this situation is.
You’re not cutting Olave, but I’d certainly rather gamble on the quarterback situations in Tennessee for Calvin Ridley, San Francisco for both of their primary options, or any of the pieces in Buffalo that feel shaky.
This is a game of talent, opportunity, and efficiency. In a perfect world, when two of those boxes are checked, you can survive, but that’s not the case in New Orleans.
Rashid Shaheed, WR
Rashid Shaheed saw plenty of volume in Week 1 (nine targets against the Cardinals) and scored, by his standards, a unique touchdown on Sunday against the 49ers.
Some would call that making the most of a bad situation; I see it as keeping your selling window open.
Shaheed TD reception lengths for his career before this:
- 19
- 34
- 39
- 43
- 45
- 53
- 58
- 59
- 68
- 70
The tricky part is that I think Shaheed is a talented player with a bright future. However, I don’t think the future really starts in 2025.
Rattler finished with good counting numbers in Week 2 (73.5% complete with three touchdowns), but, per our QBi metric, he didn’t approach one of the 15 best performances of the week.
Last week felt like a best-case scenario, and I’m more than willing to trade away any beneficiaries. His current production dwarfs that of Darnell Mooney and Matthew Golden, but I’d personally take those two receivers in a one-for-one deal.
Juwan Johnson, TE
Did we waste too much time this summer arguing about which receiver in New Orleans would be able to overcome the quarterback situation and not enough evaluating a one-size position that naturally has a lower bar to clear in terms of impacting fantasy lineups?
Juwan Johnson had a few concentration drops early on Sunday, but Rattler kept going his way and trusted him with a contested target in the end zone.
Touchdown.
Since 2010, a TE has opened a season with 9+ targets in consecutive games while playing six times for a 0-2 team. Johnson and Jimmy Graham (2012 and 2014) account for half of those instances (The others: 2013 Brandon Myers, 2019 Greg Olsen, and 2021 T.J. Hockenson).
Maybe it’s the voodoo of the Saints?
I really don’t care what it is. Until we see usage come off his plate, I’m comfortable assuming it’ll be there, which means top-10 status in PPR leagues. Johnson and Trey McBride are tied atop the TE leaderboard for longest active 5+ catch streak (four), and that volume level is impossible to find at the position.
