The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New Orleans Saints players heading into their matchup with the Atlanta Falcons to help you craft a winning lineup.
Tyler Shough, QB
Can you play?
If so, there’s a spot for you in the league.
Much was made of Tyler Shough’s age entering the draft process, and while I understand that thought, are we sure that’s right?
We know that rookie contracts at the QB position can be as valuable as any asset in the sport, and Shough’s rookie deal will extend through his age-29 season.
By then, there is no guesswork to be done. The Saints will be 100% sure of what they have for better or worse.
They might just have something. Shough is just the third QB in the 2000s drafted outside of the first round to throw for 300 yards in consecutive games (also: 2016 Dak Prescott and 2020 Jalen Hurts), and his ability to escape the pocket has looked more natural than what I expected.
I want to be bullish, but from a fantasy standpoint, I fear that the version of him that we’ve gotten this season is more friendly than what we see in 2026.
The Saints were well aware that this wasn’t a win-now season. As a result, what did they have to lose by letting the 40th overall pick stretch his legs?
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Either he’d fall flat, and the Saints would earn a top-5 pick, giving them the ability to take another shot at the quarterback position, or he’d show signs of life and give this team the ability to rebuild in a hurry.
Shough has shown well for himself, and that means that 2026 will likely be viewed as an opportunity to build more than a YOLO gap year. If that’s the case, the volume will dip and take his fantasy stock with it.
He’s got four QB1 finishes this season, and if you set that as the line, I’d take the “under” in 2026. This isn’t an empty profile (36 targets to Chris Olave over the past three weeks shows a basic understanding of how to win at this level on a roster that lacks depth). But I do think there’s a chance the fantasy community overcorrects based on his rookie production via volume, and I don’t anticipate that sticking.
Alvin Kamara, RB
Alvin Kamara missed a fifth straight game with this knee/ankle injury, and there’s little reason to think that the 30-year-old is going to take another snap this season.
The veteran back is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and hasn’t earned more than three targets in a game since the first half of October. The one-time fantasy difference maker has been unable to return any value for the majority of the season, and a potentially compromised version of him is unlikely to reverse that trend.
New Orleans has shown some fight down the stretch with a young nucleus. I understand that AK loves this city and wants to finish his career there, but for pure purposes, I think he’s already retired.
Audric Estime, RB
The Saints are going to be an interesting backfield to watch, as it feels like we are in the middle of an extended Alvin Kamara swan song. Devin Neal was the next man up initially, but Audric Estime filled in for him last week, torching the Titans for 94 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.
He’s got 101 carries on his NFL resume, and that’s nowhere near enough to make any broad claims. At the very least, he has my interest for next season. I’m not sold that, like this season, New Orleans gives us a running back to consider every week, but Estime averaged 6.2 YPC during his career at Notre Dame and looked good enough last week to at least get a look this summer.
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The Raiders, Browns, Titans, Saints, Jets, and Panthers are in the bottom tier of scoring offenses before there is a tier jump to the Falcons. All of them had efficiency issues on the ground, and that’s in danger of happening to whoever sits atop this depth chart next season. Still, Quinshon Judkins showed us that sheer volume can work, and that’s what I think the best-case scenario would be for Estime if this team gives him a chance to lead.
Chris Olave, WR
How does three straight top-10 finishes to round out the fantasy season sound?
Chris Olave said that he was just trying to get Tyler Shough the rookie of the year, but really, you have to think that he’s just in it for us fantasy managers.
He’s looked great all season, and while he benefited from a concentrated offense, the environment as a whole should be better in 2026 than in 2025.
Would you believe me if I told you this was actually the worst yards-per-route season of his career?
His end-zone targets were high (career-high 14), and his slot usage shot back up, but I don’t have many issues with this profile. The 19-yard touchdown last week was symbolic of what he is: a near-impossible single cover that is precise with his routes and always on time.
Olave has cleared 1,000 yards in all three of his healthy seasons, but his TD total this year (nine) was what he totaled in those previous two combined. Scoring variance worked in his favor this season, but good players have a way of making their own luck.
I’ve got New Orleans’ star penciled in as a high-end WR2 next season, a ranking that could spill into the low-end WR1 tier pending the QB situations of a few receivers ahead of him.
Invest with confidence, this is a consistent profile for a player yet to hit his prime.
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Juwan Johnson, TE
Juwan Johnson caught 20 of his 21 December targets, and he can be a hyper-efficient option in this offense in his age-30 season, but my worry is the sheer volume of this offense.
In 2025, the Saints knew they weren’t going to be very good, and that means picking early enough to consider going the QB route in consecutive drafts. So what harm was there in letting Tyler Shough cook over the final two months of this season?
They gave the old rookie a chance to prove himself by putting volume on his shoulders and asking him to make the most of a limited situation. Perfect plan.
If he succeeds, maybe they have their QB of the future. If he faceplants, you lose games, get a high pick, and replace him.
From a roster-construction standpoint, I love the move, and in fantasy, it gave us hope. Chris Olave was great, and after Rashid Shaheed left for Seattle, Johnson was the next logical target earner.
That was great for 2025, but I don’t expect the same game plan for 2026. If Shough’s volume is dialed back, Johnson’s high-floor profile disappears. I’m not ruling out streamable spots for him, but he’s not currently on my list of draftable options at the position.
