The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New Orleans Saints players heading into their matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Tyler Shough, QB
Tyler Shough isn’t a star, but I’ve been pleasantly surprised with what I’ve seen from him this season. No, the counting numbers aren’t crazy, but this system/roster makes that close to impossible.
A completion percentage of 68% in three straight? A total of 40 rushing yards over his past two games?
That’s not nothing. The Saints are allowing him to learn by fire (47 opportunities, pass attempts plus rush attempts, per game in those two contests), and I think that’s earned him the opportunity to have a role next season.
Without high-end counting numbers, Shough needs touchdowns to move into the Superflex conversation. But with the Bucs allowing the second fewest red zone drives per game (2.4, only the Patriots are better, and they are on bye, so this is as tough in that regard as it gets this week), he’s a long shot to get there this weekend.
Alvin Kamara, RB
A low body injury resulted in Alvin Kamara missing his first game of the season on Sunda,y and while the timetable is TBD, reports noted that the veteran RB wasn’t expected to be placed on IR.
Is the glass half empty or half full?
This suggests his absence will be fewer than four games (three more), but it doesn’t exactly inspire optimism about his availability in the short term. He doesn’t have a finish better than RB14 this season and has finished the majority of his games outside of the top 25 at the position.
The answer to your lineup questions this time of year shouldn’t include Saints: you’re playing Chris Olave, or you’re grasping for straws. That sentiment won’t change unless Kamara finds the fountain of youth, recovers in a hurry, and proves both of those things to us over the next month.
Yeah, not betting on it.
Devin Neal, RB
I’m not sure what you expected last week, but the Devin Neal performance was roughly in line with projections. He assumed the lead role (17 touches, though I wasn’t thrilled with seeing Mason Tipton handle the first carry against the Dolphins), showed some versatility, and finished with 9.9 PPR points.
He was able to fall forward at a high rate (92.9% gain rate), but offered very little in the way of explosive play potential. Evan Hull got five carries, and we’ve seen the Saints show comfort in calling designed runs for Tyler Shough, so his six rush attempts shouldn’t be viewed as an outlier.
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What New Orleans didn’t do was lean into the Taysom Hill packages (one carry), which has me thinking there is more room for Neal’s value to decline than to improve.
This is a brutal matchup for any traditional run game. The Bucs rank third in success rate against running backs this season, and you don’t have to go far back to see an ultra-impressive performance (James Cook turned 16 carries into just 48 yards against them).
The Saints lack offensive options, and that leaves the door open for Neal, presuming he’s the lead back again, to catch a handful of passes and slip into the back-end of flex consideration. Still, I think you’re swallowing an awful lot of risk for a limited reward.
Chris Olave, WR
Do you know how talented you have to be to earn four end zone looks in a three-game span for maybe the worst team in the NFL?
Chris Olave has done that. Twice.
He only had one catch for four yards in the first half in Miami last week, but Tyler Shough found him while scrambling on the first drive of the second half for a 17-yard TD, once again making him a profitable starting piece, even in a low-scoring environment.
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This Olave season is what we thought the floor for Justin Jefferson would be. There are ceiling limitations, but he has seven finishes as a WR2 or better through 13 weeks and isn’t killing you.
I see no reason to expect anything but top 20 production this week against a Bucs defense that forces you to throw.
I can’t promise it’ll be pretty, but Olave has 115 targets this season for a reason and that level of volume puts less pressure on the quality of each individual look.
Juwan Johnson, TE
This is a two-man passing attack for one of the worst teams in football.
Sold.
Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson are getting as much work as they can stomach as the Saints attempt to stay competitive for 60 minutes, and while the stat lines aren’t flashy, Johnson is getting the job done.
Active TE Streaks With 8.5+ PPR Points
1) Trey McBride: 14
2) Johnson: 6
3) George Kittle: 4
That’s not bad company, not bad company at all.
I’m obviously not ranking him among those two superstars, but he serves as a nice reminder that there can be value mined in some ugly situations.
The Buccaneers are a pass funnel defense that will score points: look for Tyler Shough to flirt with 40 pass attempts for a third straight week and land Johnson near, if not in, the top-12 at the position.
