As we turn the corner past the halfway point of the regular season, it’s now when these rookies are supposed to be breaking out, right? We can only hope so. Another week and more panic in the street as we break down more prominent rookie fantasy assets and if they’re getting better, or if concern is growing.
If you’re curious about Denver Broncos’ RB RJ Harvey after his big day, I covered him in his own article this week. Other mainstays in this article, like Ashton Jeanty or Travis Hunter Jr., had their bye weeks, so we’re in wait-and-see mode with them.
Jaxson Dart, QB, New York Giants
Panic Meter: Low, but rising
I’m just not sure how much more this team can take. Jaxson Dart lit a fire that was very real for a struggling Giants team that paved the way toward two quick victories. They managed to do so without their star receiver, Malik Nabers, and a makeshift receiving unit. Now they’ll have to do it without fellow rookie Cam Skattebo, who was also becoming a fantasy juggernaut.
There isn’t a ton of talent left on this offense for Dart to work with. Since becoming a starter, he’s not just been viable, but one of the better fantasy options at QB. That’s begun to dry up a little over the past two weeks against Denver and Philadelphia, but putting up reasonable numbers against those defenses as a young player is still admirable.
Dart’s rushing has dried up as well after consecutive 50+ yard games, but he salvaged his fantasy output with a touchdown on the ground. His schedule will also let up a little, and he’s been targeting Wan’Dale Robinson and his TEs plenty before Skattebo went down. There’s no reason for immediate panic, but I am afraid that at some point, he may hit a rookie wall unless the Giants make a move for another pass catcher.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots
Panic Meter: Still High
It was TreVeyon Henderson’s birthday this past week, so perhaps it was the Patriots’ gift to give him touches finally. Just one week after he was seemingly benched outright, he returned to his regular workload in Week 8 with 10 carries. He returned with his best outing yet with a 75-yard performance.
We’ll see what the coaches take to more: his effective running or his late fumble near the goal line. Of course, Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumbles haven’t put him in the doghouse yet, but the standards seem to be different for the young RB.
Regardless, this “breakout” was more surface-level unless it turns into more playing time. He wasn’t used in the passing game, and his 10 total touches are aligned with most of his games. His snap count remains low, just 20% which would still be his second-lowest total this year. What changed was that, of his 14 snaps, he got a touch in most of them, signaling an effort to get him involved.
Last week, I claimed it was over for Henderson and his 2025 outlook. It’s promising to see him play again, but unless the Patriots’ coaches have a complete change of thinking, this performance wasn’t enough to convince me he’ll be viable anytime soon.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders
Panic Meter: Medium, but rising
The pre-season late-round darling of the season, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, hasn’t really returned that hype yet. Plenty bought in after his breakout game against the Chargers back in Week 5, but we’ve seen less than ideal results since.
I don’t think many expected Croskey-Merritt to have a great game against the Kansas City Chiefs without Jayden Daniels, but a meager 25 yards is a pretty brutal outcome. What’s worse is we don’t know how much more time Daniels will miss, which, so far, has directly correlated with what Croskey-Merritt is capable of. Daniels should return next week, but this will be his second injury to force missed time this season, and the dreaded hamstring strain is a fickle one.
The work is still there. Between Weeks 5-8, Croskey-Merritt was averaging 14 carries a game with at least one target. The lack of passing work really caps his ceiling, but he was still getting the ball enough to be effective. It’s just for now; this offense has little leg to stand on without their star QB. I’m pretty concerned this may be a down year for Washington as Daniels plays through injury to less efficiency. That said, if they can find their stride down the stretch, Croskey-Merritt can still be a strong contributor.
Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers
Panic Meter: HIGH
Matthew Golden has flown under the radar on this article over the past few weeks, in part due to a Week 5 bye and a couple of solid outings. He’s been suitable for a big play, but outside of that, we haven’t seen the consistency or high-end production to consider him a viable starter.
The Sunday night game against Pittsburgh is by far the worst outcome for any hope. In a 35-25 win in which Green Bay trailed for a majority of the game and Jordan Love completed 29 passes for 360 yards, Golden had just four yards on three catches. This is the low-end possibility each week for Golden if he doesn’t haul in a deep pass.
Furthermore, he has yet to reach the end zone. The Packers are currently 5th in the league in scoring with 27.6 points per game. Jayden Reed has been out of the lineup, as has Christian Watson to this point. With most things breaking in Golden’s favor, he’s been unplayable in fantasy.
I don’t have much faith this will turn around naturally, but the point in rookie receivers is to bet on a second-half breakout. Nothing about Golden’s underlying metrics or the way the Packers play suggests this situation will improve for him. Your best bet for him is a little more than a prayer at this point.
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Panic Meter: I’m not sure, but I think it’ll be fine
We were just at the pinnacle of Emeka Egbuka’s potential after he ripped off a 7-161-1 game against one of the best defenses in the league against Seattle. Then, early in the season against San Francisco, he strained a hamstring. Against the odds, he played the following week in Detroit, but was clearly hampered as he turned 12 targets into just four catches and 58 yards.
An ugly 23-3 win over New Orleans put no pressure on Tampa Bay to let it fly, but Egbuka was again inefficient with nine targets and just three catches. He’ll limp into a Week 9 bye, where hopefully he and this offense can rebound.
The ill-timed injury to Mike Evans should provide a boost to Ebuka’s season-long prospect. However, the loss of both Evans and Godwin (on top of those in the offensive line and run game) has been more than the Bucs can handle. The team that hung 38 on Seattle mustered just nine points against a beat-up Detroit team. We’ll see if this bye week was the boon the Bucs needed, because the rapid fall off was quite concerning.
