RJ Harvey Fantasy Analysis: Was the Broncos RB’s Big Game His Breakout or a Flash in the Pan?

RJ Harvey scored three touchdowns against Dallas but still played only 25% of snaps behind J.K. Dobbins in the Broncos backfield.

To this point in the season, Denver Broncos rookie RB RJ Harvey was a consistent feature on my weekly “Panic Report” article. He was clearly playing second fiddle to J.K. Dobbins and, at times, even Tyler Badie. But, after a three-touchdown performance against the Dallas Cowboys, is Harvey here to stay, or was it a trick for the holidays?

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Inching Toward Relevance

There’s both good news and bad news about Harvey’s usage from this game. The bad news is that he continues to get less-than-ideal playing time. Dobbins remains the lead back with 17 touches and over 50% of the offense’s snaps, while Harvey maintains his season average around ~25%. Despite the explosive game, he only handled the ball 8 times, which is about in line with the norm.

These aren’t the underlying stats you want to see if you’ve been holding Harvey all season, and it’ll make start/sit decisions even more difficult because he isn’t getting strong usage. We can account for the fact that he’s gaining Sean Payton’s trust, as he was used throughout the game. Unlike the Bengals blowout, where he was used primarily once the game was in hand, Harvey’s first touchdown came in the first quarter while Denver was trailing. Being used twice near the goal line and once last week means he’s clearly part of the game plan.

Part of that is likely by design. Sean Payton likes to hide his hand until it becomes advantageous to show it, but he equally makes rookies earn their playing time. Harvey’s explosive nature may be something of a “break in case of emergency” option, but it’s possible he can parlay this performance into more playing time.

Where Things Stand in this Offense

Payton still turned to Dobbins most of the time, resulting in 111 yards rushing on 7.4 yards per attempt. Dobbins is a reliable and competent veteran who has earned his place in this offense, so as long as he’s playing well, you shouldn’t expect him to go away. It’s also important to understand that Dallas’s defense is horrific, creating quite the runway for Harvey’s career day.

There were promising signs for Harvey in this game, but don’t be tricked by his gaudy touchdown total. While we may start to see more of him going forward, his usage didn’t change much in this game as Denver steamrolled Dallas. He’s shown his big-play ability more than once this season, but until he remains on the field for an extended period of time, he’s still a boom-or-bust option.

This would be a great time to sell high if you don’t have the time to wait on Harvey becoming a key fantasy component while others are desperate for an RB. You can, however, wait on Harvey yourself if you have the depth and time, and don’t believe Dobbins will maintain his starting role or stay healthy for the long haul. Personally, I’m not betting big on Harvey yet.

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